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Fred, krise og konflikt

Hva er de sentrale spørsmålene knyttet til fred, krise og konflikt?
Colombia: Gangstere, geriljaer, korrupsjon og kokain
Podkast

Colombia: Gangstere, geriljaer, korrupsjon og kokain

Etter mange år med borgerkrig har Colombia en vanskelig vei mot fred. I 2023 skal Operasjon Dagsverk samle inn penger til ungdom i Colombia, for å...

  • Defence
  • Peace operations
  • Fragile states
  • Insurgencies
  • Defence
  • Peace operations
  • Fragile states
  • Insurgencies

Klima, fred og sikkerhet i DR Kongo

I et nytt oppdatert faktaark ser forskere fra NUPI og SIPRIs Climate-related Peace and Security Risks (CPSR)-prosjekt på sammenhengen mellom klimaendringer, fred og sikkerhet i Den demokratiske republikken Kongo.
  • Afrika
  • Konflikt
  • Klima
  • FN
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Hvordan påvirker klimaendringene fred og sikkerhet?

Siden 2021 har NUPI og SIPRI analysert sammenhengene mellom klima, fred og sikkerhet i ulike land og regioner av betydning for Sikkerhetsrådet. Her er forskernes hovedfunn.
  • Konflikt
  • Klima
  • FN
Publikasjoner
Publikasjoner
Rapport
Asha Ali, Cedric H. de Coning, Ingvild Brox Brodtkorb, Minoo Koefoed, Thor Olav Iversen, Anne Funnemark, Florian Krampe, Kyungmee Kim, Kheira Tarif, Katongo Seyuba

Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Democratic Republic of the Congo

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is faced with a confluence of climate change, environmental degradation, resource exploitation and conflict dynamics that is exacerbating insecurity in the country. The dual impact of climate change and the global green energy transition risks deepening divisions over resource management and fostering intercommunal conflict over resources such as land and water. Climate related security risks threaten to undermine human security through increased livelihood and food insecurity and changing patterns of transhumance.

  • Afrika
  • Konflikt
  • Klima
  • FN
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  • Afrika
  • Konflikt
  • Klima
  • FN
Publikasjoner
Publikasjoner
Policy brief

Knowledge Gaps in the Nexus of Climate, Peace and Security

There is a growing body of research on the relationship between climate change and peace and security. Research shows that the effects of climate change can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, such as food and water security, and in combination with other factors can also increase the risk of violent conflict. It is increasingly recognized that actions taken to prevent and manage conflict can be coordinated and integrated with actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Such cross-disciplinary cooperation can generate outcomes that are beneficial for both a sustainable peace and environment. The COP27 Presidency initiative titled “Climate Responses for Sustaining Peace” (CRSP), has taken a leading role in this movement by spearheading a discursive pivot from a climate security nexus towards a climate and peacebuilding nexus, with multifaceted and holistic approaches. The literature on how to integrate climate adaption and mitigation actions in efforts to build sustainable peace is still underdeveloped. However, there are related fields, such as the relationship between peace, conflict and natural resource management that may offer comparable lessons. This policy paper takes stock of the existing knowledge and identifies knowledge gaps for policy practice in the crucial, complex and emergent field of climate, peace and security. It classifies significant gaps in our actionable knowledge by sorting them into operational knowledge gaps, climate finance knowledge gaps, and gaps in the knowledge infrastructure.

  • Sikkerhetspolitikk
  • Konflikt
  • Klima
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  • Sikkerhetspolitikk
  • Konflikt
  • Klima
Publikasjoner
Publikasjoner
Research paper
Kheira Tarif, Katongo Seyuba, Anne Funnemark, Elisabeth L. Rosvold, Kyungmee Kim, Florian Krampe, Asha Ali, Cedric H. de Coning

Climate, Peace and Security Research Paper: Insights on Climate, Peace and Security

Climate change is transforming and redefining the global security and development landscape. United Nations member states are increasingly acknowledging that the impacts of climate change have implications for international peace and security. The growing recognition of this link has been reflected by the UN Security Council adopting over 70 related resolutions and presidential statements since 2017. Since 2021 the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) have analysed the links between climate, peace and security in countries and regions on the agenda of the UN Security Council. With support from Norway during its elected membership of the UN Security Council in 2021–22, NUPI and SIPRI jointly published 11 Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheets covering Afghanistan, the Central African Republic (CAR), Colombia, Ethiopia, Iraq, Mali, the Sahel region, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan. These fact sheets build on an analysis of four pathways from climate change to conflict that were identified in the context of East Africa; and supplement research on South and South East Asia, West Africa, and the Middle East and North Africa. The relationships between climate change and conflict have been studied in numerous other empirical studies and literature reviews with complementary findings. This paper outlines how climate change can affect peace and security (section I) and how climate change interacts with social, economic and political vulnerabilities in the countries covered by the Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheets (section II). The paper then synthesizes (section III) four key findings from the fact sheet series: (a) livelihood security is important, if not crucial, to the ways in which climate change influences conflict risk; (b) the impacts of climate change in one location can increase security risks in other locations; (c) the impacts of climate change interact with local vulnerabilities in ways that can create new security risks and exacerbate existing risks, such as conflict; and (d) conflict is not an inevitable consequence of climate change, but can be a response to its effects. This paper concludes with recommendations for how the UN Security Council shapes policies to address the complex challenges arising from climate change (section IV).

  • Konflikt
  • Klima
  • FN
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  • Konflikt
  • Klima
  • FN
Publikasjoner
Publikasjoner
Rapport

The Ukraine War, the New Geopolitics of Energy, and Norway

This study aims to address the question of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has changed patterns of regional and global energy interactions and how this influences perceptions of Norway as a major regional energy actor. To examine these important questions, we will proceed in the following manner. In the first part of this study, we will present our operational understanding of the key concepts shaping our thinking about the relationship between the geopolitical and geoeconomic aspects of international cooperation and rivalry. Here we also will discuss the role of various national instruments of power in the pursuit of geopolitical and geoeconomic objectives. In the second part we narrow the scope of this examination to shed light on the relationship between geopolitics and energy in global and regional contexts, paying special attention to trends shaping the international energy game. This includes the changing role of Russia; how green energy transition reshapes international energy cooperation and how old and new energy-related policy instruments are evolving in this rapidly changing energy landscape. In addition, we also examine the nature of the old and new threats to energy flows, particularly those related to critical energy infrastructure. In the third part of this study, we examine the direct and indirect impacts the Russian war against Ukraine has had on energy markets and what implications these recent developments have for the position of Norway as a major energy actor. Norway’s importance for energy consumers, especially in Europe, has increased because of the war. Although the global energy trends discussed in the previous section also influence Norway and Europe, the focus in the latter section is on the regional dimension as Norway’s energy supplies reach first and foremost Europe. Finally, we examine possible scenarios that may influence energy markets and geopolitical conditions, with special attention paid to global factors with the potential to cause serious shifts. Part of the focus is on possible technological breakthroughs that may change the parameters of the international energy interactions and undermine the position of traditional energy producers and exporters.

  • Europa
  • Russland og Eurasia
  • Konflikt
  • Energi
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  • Europa
  • Russland og Eurasia
  • Konflikt
  • Energi
Publikasjoner
Publikasjoner
Policy brief

Fra partnere til allierte: Finland og Norge i en ny æra

Finlands beslutning om å søke NATO-medlemskap i 2022 endret nordisk sikkerhet og forsvarsdynamikk. Det påvirket også Finlands forhold til sine naboland, inkludert Norge. I denne policy briefen analyserer vi utviklingen i forholdet mellom Finland og Norge – historisk og i nyere tid. Naboskapet har alltid vært fredelig, men ulike sikkerhetspolitiske tilnærminger skapte politisk avstand mellom dem under den kalde krigen. Etter den kalde krigens slutt ble forskjellene mindre, noe som reflekteres også i økt nordisk sikkerhetssamarbeid, finsk og svensk deltakelse i NATO-øvelser, og, i senere år, nye forsvarsavtaler med hverandre og med Sverige og USA. Etter Finlands NATO-inntreden har begge land uttrykt en forventning om ytterligere forsterket finsk-norsk samarbeid. Vi identifiserer flere potensielle samarbeidsområder i årene som kommer, herunder forvaltningen av felles institusjonelle rammeverk, sikkerhetsutfordringer i Arktis og Østersjøregionene, den fremtidige relasjonen med USA og tilnærmingen til et mer uforutsigbart Russland.

  • Forsvar
  • Sikkerhetspolitikk
  • NATO
  • Utenrikspolitikk
  • Europa
  • Norden
  • Konflikt
  • EU
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  • Forsvar
  • Sikkerhetspolitikk
  • NATO
  • Utenrikspolitikk
  • Europa
  • Norden
  • Konflikt
  • EU
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Forskningsprosjekt
2023 - 2024 (Pågående)

Klimaendringer i Arktis: Sikkerhetsimplikasjoner og konsekvenser for militære operasjoner – et MCDC-prosjekt (CLIMARCSEC)

Klimaendringene åpner opp Arktis for konkurranse i et tempo som utfordrer eksisterende styringsstrukturer og nasjonale militære kapasiteter. Dette skal CLIMARCSEC se nærmere på....

  • Security policy
  • The Arctic
  • Conflict
  • Climate
  • Security policy
  • The Arctic
  • Conflict
  • Climate
Publikasjoner
Publikasjoner
Vitenskapelig artikkel

Public Policy Europeanisation in Response to the Covid‐19 Crisis: The Case of Job Retention Schemes

To what extent and how did the Covid-19-pandemic trigger the Europeanisation of public policy in the EU member states? This article addresses this question by exploring member states’ responses to the labour market implications of the pandemic. Although the EU due to its free movement principles in effect has a common labour market, labour market policies have remained in the hands of the member states. Nonetheless, we find that they responded in a surprisingly similar manner to rising unemployment caused by lockdowns. Was this policy change linked to Europeanisation processes, and if so, in what way? We find that member states’ responses were related both to economic incentives and to contingent learning playing out in largely informal settings at the EU level. Our findings shed light on how crises may function as a critical juncture that triggers policy change, and how the EU may play a key role in such change. Our study thus also adds insights to our understanding of the mechanisms that underpin Europeanisation, in particular by shedding light on the importance of informal learning processes and the influence of the European Commission also in formally less integrated policy areas.

  • Europa
  • Pandemier
  • Styring
  • EU
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  • Europa
  • Pandemier
  • Styring
  • EU
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