AVLYST: Romania i førarsetet mot eit sterkare EU
På grunn av uventa hendingar må vi dessverre avlyse dette arrangementet.
Haukene tar over i Japan
Kina er i full fart mot supermaktstatus. Hva skjer så i Japan?
PODCAST: Vennskapene som beveger verden
Kristin Haugevik dykker ned i spesielle vennskap mellom land i ny bok.
Valdai Paper #92: Russia’s Far East Initiatives in Troubled Geopolitical Times
The China–Russia rapprochement forms the centrepiece of Russia’s much hyped policy of a ‘turn to the East’, a policy aimed at transforming the Russian Far East from a territorial backwater into a new gateway to China, North-East Asia and beyond. In 2013, President Vladimir Putin declared the development of the Far East a ‘national priority for the entire twenty-first century’. Historically, the Russian Far East was rather a garrison on the distant frontier. But today there is a new development model for the region that is expected to turn it into the gateway to the East, the region of growth and cooperation aimed to reap the benefits of rising Asia, particularly China. New institutions, projects, and financing have been provided for this purpose. What progress has been made so far in implementing the Eastern vector in Russian domestic and foreign policy? Have the ambitious plans indeed borne fruits, like President Xi declared? And what are the main drivers behind the ‘turn to the East’? Do worsened geopolitical relations with Western European actors intensify the turn? Or is it driven by the perceptions of opportunities and long-term objectives in the Asia-Pacific region? The Valdai Paper #92 presents a critical and independent view on Russia’s Turn to the East by the European authors.
Did China Bankroll Russia’s Annexation of Crimea? The Role of Sino-Russian Energy Relations
This chapter is an empirical analysis of energy cooperation between China and Russia, centred on the Ukrainian crisis as a defining event of the partnership. Despite China’s officially neutral political stance on Crimea, the increased frequency of meetings to discuss joint energy projects and the signing of the largest energy deal in world history created the impression that China actively stepped in and supplied the necessary financing to get Russia through sanctions over Crimea and the oil price collapse of 2014–2016. The chapter assesses this hypothesis by examining the long-term trends in lending, investments and trade trends between the two countries, and by taking a closer look at Chinese involvement in four concrete energy projects managed by some of the main Russian energy companies: Power of Siberia, Yamal LNG, Vankor and ESPO. While there is evidence of increased Chinese investments in Russia and a surge of Russian oil imports to China after the annexation, the authors conclude that China was not the major force keeping Russia’s wheels turning during the pre- and post-Crimea years. The involvement of China in the major Russian energy projects was planned and negotiated long before the annexation of Crimea. The authors therefore argue that China did not step in to bankroll Russia after Crimea, instead long-term trends in cooperation simply continued. On the other hand, clearly the long-term growth in cooperation between the two countries reduces Russia’s dependency on the West and provides greater elbowroom for its foreign policy.
Russia: Public Debate and the Petroleum Sector
In Russia, civil society engagement with the petroleum sector is surprisingly rich and varied for a country that is ranked low on most democracy-related indicators. This chapter finds that there is a lively and varied public debate, with business associations, research institutes, independent experts, indigenous organizations and the few surviving independent media actively and often competently analysing and commenting on a broad range of issues related to the oil and gas sector. Russians were early users of social media, which occasionally also function as a platform for discussion of petroleum policy issues. However, the real impact of civil society on decision-making and policy formulation in the petroleum sector is not as great as the diversity of actors and discussion might imply. One key reason is the tight government control over mainstream media outlets. The situation for free speech and civil society worsened steadily from around 2004 to 2016. As in neighbouring Kazakhstan, the Russian population puts a high premium on stability over freedom. While a central concern in this book is whether the media and civil society have any influence on the petroleum sector, in Russia the paradoxical situation is that the relationship is often reversed: the gas company Gazprom, rather than another organizational vehicle, is used by the government to control key mass media; and the oil company Yukos played a central role in promoting civil society until its main owner Mikhail Khodorkovskiy was arrested and the company was carved up.
Like Grandfather, Like Grandson: Kinship as a legitimating force in Japan’s International Relations
This chapter discusses the entrenched trend of hereditary politicians in Japanese politics and how kinship is used as a legitimating force in Japan’s international relations. It illuminates how one Japanese leader has invoked his kinship to both legitimate and promote Japan’s history and foreign policy in diplomatic exchanges. While dynasties in Japanese politics are clearly a domestic issue, the activation of those kinship properties on diplomatic trips across the world transforms them into an inter-state subject.
Codeword China
(Fra kronikk): When it comes to Arctic regional political governance and economic outlooks, the policy and academic communities have become good at asking ‘what about China’ and facilitating a conversation on several policy issues. All the main Arctic conferences have panels on China in the Arctic in some form or another and there is a small but strong and productive community of scholars analyzing how China approaches the Arctic.