Stuxnet - et paradigmeskifte?
More than a decade after Stuxnet was made publicly known, it remains the most vigorous example of a cyber attack causing both serious kinetic damage and as means to assert political pressure. Based on an analysis of the operation and its aftermath, this chapter argues that Stuxnet represents a paradigm shift. In view of advancements made to develop offensive and defensive cyber capabilities, particularly in the US, Israel and Iran, the shift refers to how states understand and use cyber capabilities during times of conflict. We illustrate how cyber operations can in certain contexts function as a supplement between diplomacy and the use of military means, but also in some cases as a substitute for conventional military force.
Norwegian public’s attitudes to foreign policy in 2024: a status quo nation in a time of global turmoil
What is the Norwegian public’s opinion on the state of the world? And what foreign policy does it want the Norwegian government to pursue? In this report, we present the findings from an opinion poll conducted by Sentio for NUPI in the period 18 to 24 April 2024. The global landscape is deeply unsettled, and we find ourselves in an era marked by considerable uncertainty about future developments in world politics. The great power rivalry between the United States and China is intensifying, the war in Ukraine continues to rage, the war in Gaza is causing immense human suffering and having major ramifications for the Middle East, and the effects of global warming are becoming increasingly apparent. The Norwegian government has warned through, for example, its intelligence service’s annual report on security threats, that Norway is facing its most serious security situation in decades.1 However, a key finding in our report is that the Norwegian public is somewhat measured in its assessments and considers the general threat level for Norway to be moderate, i.e. at a normal level. This suggests that the government’s actions have minimal impact on public opinion on world politics. The public’s failure to grasp the severity of the security situation is both surprising and alarming, as is its disregard for official communications about the geopolitical threats facing Norway. Against the backdrop of limited crisis comprehension, we see a relatively stable development in the Norwegian public’s attitudes to foreign policy since 2021, with the notable exception of attitudes to Russia, which have clearly hardened. NUPI conducted similar studies in 2020 and in connection with the general election in 2021,2 and in this report, we have asked many of the same questions as previously, in addition to some new ones. We therefore take this opportunity to compare our findings with the previous studies where appropriate, to gauge the extent of change in public opinion. This report and the survey it presents is financed by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung.
Reinforcing Trust, Evoking Nostalgia and Contrasting China: Japan's Foreign Policy Repertoire and Identity Construction in Myanmar
In the immediate aftermath of the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021, Western countries and the EU condemned the coup, imposed targeted sanctions against military leaders and military-owned companies, and redirected essential humanitarian aid to NGOs. Japan, however, chose to neither align with its democratic allies nor completely suspend its aid. Despite a long and complicated pre-war history and limited engagement after 1988, Japan-Myanmar relations experienced a resurgence between 2012 and 2021. This article contends that one key driving force in contemporary relations is identity construction. Drawing on the literature on relational identity and foreign policy repertoires, the article demonstrates how the discursive statements and embodied practices of a network of Japanese identity entrepreneurs activate, negotiate, and renegotiate the identities of the Japanese Self and its Others. Through an analysis of interviews conducted with elite stakeholders in Myanmar and Japan, the article studies Japan’s constructed identity as an economic great power and post-war development pioneer, peace promoter, and diplomatic mediator. It finds that Japan constructs its identity temporally in terms of nostalgia (natsukashisa) and a longing for a time when Japan was a post-war industrial powerhouse, but also spatially in terms of Japan’s legal, moral, and industrial superiority over other countries involved in Myanmar’s development, in particular vis-à-vis China.
US and UK Elections: Implications for NATO and Northern European Security
Elections on both sides of the Atlantic have highlighted diverging views and increasing tensions over the importance of the security alliance, which celebrates its 75th anniversary this year. The most impactful election will undoubtedly take place in the United States, where the two candidates present Europe with remarkably different challenges. The re-election of President Joseph Biden to a second consecutive term in office will largely represent continuity albeit few clear incentives to undertake the transformational changes necessary for Europe to adapt to an increasingly volatile security landscape. On the other hand, if former President Donald Trump secures a second term in the Oval Office, Europeans could see their transatlantic security alliance thrown into turmoil and could be forced to consider difficult and uncomfortable steps to strengthen their own security. Voters will also head to the polls across Europe, including in the highly anticipated European Parliament elections, which will shape the composition of the next iteration of EU institutions. However, most notable for Northern European security will be elections in the United Kingdom on July 4th, which could lead to a change in the governing party for the first time in 14 years. A recent commitment by Downing Street to increase defence spending to 2.5 % by 2030 – reaching £87 billion in that year – has upped the ante towards its Labour opposition, which has suggested a similar increase but without providing a specific timeframe. As the NATO Alliance prepares for a 75th anniversary celebration in Washington, DC, questions loom regarding its capacity to deter a potentially emboldened Russia, particularly considering the Kremlin’s recent advances in the war in Ukraine, now entering its third year. This analysis assesses the implications of the upcoming elections on both sides of the Atlantic. It combines perspectives from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Norway, and assesses implications for NATO, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and future security in Northern Europe.
The votes that can shape European Security
Breakfast seminar: USA and geopolitics
Kenneth R. Weinstein will give us insight into US foreign policy and geopolitics at this seminar.
NUPI Researcher to Lead Expert Group
Gendering Security Sector Reform through Capacity Building? The MINUSMA Specialized Police Team on Crime Scene Management
A key element of international peacebuilding efforts is support to reform of the security sector in conflict-affected states, for example through capacity building. From 2019 to 2022, a Norwegian-led police team provided capacity building in crime scene management to Malian security forces as part of the UN peacekeeping mission in Mali (MINUSMA). The Norwegian officers organized courses and acted as mentors for the Malian officers. This article uses this case from MINUSMA to study how external support to reform can help promote gender perspectives in the security sector in conflict-affected countries. UN Security Council Resolution 1325 and the Women, Peace and Security Agenda call on UN member states to contribute to increasing women’s representation and the integration of gender perspectives in UN peace operations. Despite these political frameworks, the gender perspective is often ignored in practice when such support is offered. The analysis shows that the Norwegian officers worked actively to promote gender equality and women's participation, even though this was not a central part of the project, and without references to resolution 1325 or women or gender perspectives in the project document. Instead, the officers pointed to how promoting women's participation and gender equality are a part of “the way we work” (in Norway), as well as MINUSMA's mandate as the basis for this work. Feminist research distinguishes between a traditional and transformative approach to working with gender and security sector reform, where a traditional approach involves working within existing structures to, for example, increase women's participation or for women to receive the same type of training or capacity. A transformative approach, on the other hand, will involve taking a closer look at these structures, and looking at how women's roles in the security sector are affected by societal, cultural and religious norms. The article finds that the work has mainly relied on traditional understandings of gender, and that the opportunities for capacity building to contribute to deeper changes in the security sector are therefore limited. The findings thus further indicate that individual officers can do a lot to promote women's participation and gender perspectives, but deeper transformation of the security sector will probably require action at a more structural level.
Zooming in on the U.S.
Anniken Elise Erlandsen
Anniken is a research assistant at the Research group for Security and defence, primarily working at the Consortium for Terrorism Research. She ho...