Publications
The Political Economy of National Security, Critical Infrastructure and Securitization of Foreign Investments
This book examines how new flows of foreign direct investments from autocracies are framed, their effects, and the policy responses to them, within the context of challenges to the international liberal order. Chapters address thematic and regional issues, from national investment controls and threat perceptions to China and Russia’s responses. Collectively, they explore a new dynamic in international politics: the securitization of money crossing borders. Historically, foreign investments operated under minimal global regulation, based on the assumption that they were beneficial, and profit driven. However, the past decade has witnessed a radical shift in approaches to foreign investments due to changing investment patterns and the entry of state-sponsored actors into this traditionally unregulated realm. China and Russia are seen to leverage foreign investments to advance their long-term economic and political objectives. The book comprehensively examines the subsequent repositioning of foreign investment policy and its consequences for national and international politics.
Memo to the Arctic Security Roundtable: The geopolitics of Arctic economic activities
This brief memo supported discussions at the MSC Arctic Security Roundtable 2025 of the Munich Security Council, which has a particular focus on economic drivers and how they impact security and governance in the region. The memo directs attention to key vectors, both long-term and more recent, that are at the intersection of economy, security and environment across national borders in the Arctic.
The IDP situation in Borno State, Nigeria – returning to uncertainty?
Nigeria is faced with a protracted displacement crisis caused by jihadist insurgencies, banditry and natural disasters. This crisis is particularly manifest in the north-east, where for more than 12 years over 2 million people have been forced to move in to, out of and between internally displaced person (IDP) camps and informal settlements. Some have tried to return home or resettle to another community, only to have to move again. All suffer from limited access to essential services such as healthcare and education, and deficiencies in food security and adequate shelter. Moreover, the young age of the IDP population means many camp residents have few, if any, memories of their lives prior to leaving their homes of origin. The state of Borno is one of the most affected in Nigeria. Here, about 900,000 people continue to live in about 65 formal and 158 informal camps. In 2021, Borno State Governor Prof Babagana Umara Zulum began the process of closing the camps and returning IDPs to their homes of origin. While more than 100,000 people have already moved out of the camps, uncertain remains as to what the majority of IDPs will do once the camps are closed. This report aims to fill this knowledge gap by presenting a foresight study that, coupled with analysis of previous studies, draws on ethnographic data and field observations collected among IDP populations around Maiduguri in October 2024. The foresight analysis framework used relies on three inter-related factors: 1) the weight of history; 2) the contradictions of the present; and 3) the pull of the future. While this method cannot offer statistical representativity, it does allow for indicative scenarios encompassing known (albeit uncertain) risks and probable futures. These scenarios are not only valuable for policy planning, but constitute important pilot data for larger, more systematic studies going forward.
EU-Norway Green Alliance between vision and reality: Exploring the potential and barriers in the critical minerals and battery sectors
Norway, a key supplier of hydrocarbons and clean energy, can play a pivotal role in the EU's green transition by providing critical raw materials and batteries. However, political and regulatory obstacles must be addressed to realize this potential. Norway's alignment with the European Green Deal and its commitment to sustainability initiatives make this easier on the onset, but challenges remain. The EU's regulatory landscape, including the European Green Deal, Critical Raw Materials Act, and Battery Regulation, aims to create a sustainable and competitive battery industry. Norway's policies, such as the Green Industrial Initiative and the Mineral Strategy, align with these goals, focusing on efficient processes, circular economy, and sustainable industry development. The report presents case studies of three significant mining projects in Norway: Nussir (copper), Nordic Mining (rutile and garnet) and Skaland Graphite. All three projects highlight the complexities of domestic mining, including regulatory hurdles, environmental concerns, and opposition from local communities and indigenous groups. These case studies underscore the need for balanced approaches that consider both economic benefits and environmental protection. Note: The research for this report and writing of the first draft was conducted while Skaiå Larsen, Larsen og Godal were graduate students at the University of Oslo. All further research, writing and editing, as well as the final formulation of policy recommendations was conducted by Szulecki.
A warmer Arctic in colder geopolitical climate: What role for the private sector?
• The Arctic is experiencing considerable physical and geopolitical change affecting states, Indigenous peoples and various stakeholders. • Private sector actors are also affected by climate change, geopolitical developments and economic trends in the Arctic, although the impacts on and potential governance role of the private sector in securing safety and stability in the Arctic are often neglected in policy analyses. • This policy note outlines key stressors in the region and gives recommendations as to how the private sector can contribute to a safe and stable Arctic by supporting governance and sharing knowledge.
A Postliberal Global Order? Challenge(r)s to the Liberal West
In a new report, NUPI’s senior researcher Minda Holm looks closer at which international order it is that is under pressure. What is the issue with seeing the world through the lens of a post-1945 Liberal International or Rules-Based Order? What do actors like Russia and China have in common with the populist radical right in their perspectives on global politics? And what does Donald Trump’s second term entail for the liberal West?
Topos of threat and metapolitics in Russia’s securitisation of NATO post-Crimea
This article makes a twofold contribution on the relationship between self/other securitisation, ambiguous threat constructions, and anxiety at the intersection of Securitisation Theory (ST) and Ontological Security Studies (OSS). First, we develop the concept topos of threat (TT) as a potent linguistic anchor in securitisation processes. TTs depict an entire self/other threat situation that warrants escape, serving identity needs while staying flexible and ambiguous. However, their frequent rhetorical deployment can blur the threat construction and increase anxiety: this challenges the classical scholarly assumption that antagonism necessarily alleviates anxiety. Second, we theorise metapolitics as an anxiety mediation strategy. Metapolitics is a mode of interpretation – a relentless analysis of surface clues to expose a deceptive, powerful adversary – which in the final event fails to alleviate anxiety. The dual practice of nurturing topoi of threat and metapolitics drives conflict because it sets in motion a vicious securitisation spiral that entrenches rigid patterns of self/other representation and fosters a bias of anticipating hostility. We employ abductive theorising: working with established theory alongside empirical discovery through a discourse analysis of Russia’s official rhetoric on NATO and the use of the TT ‘colour revolution’ since the conflict in Ukraine began in 2014.
Trump II: A new trajectory in Russia relations for NATO Nordic states
• The incoming Trump administration will replace the policy of “stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes” with “making a deal with Russia”. This might entail de-escalation with Russia as well as economic and security burden-sharing with Europe. Norway and its now NATO neighbours Sweden and Finland have a window of opportunity to develop new policy for the second Trump term. • An adjusted approach to relations with Russia in the North can be devised that draws on Norwegian traditions in its relations with Russia. This approach will differ from the UK, Poland and the Baltic States but can represent a fruitful model of NATO membership for the Nordic states. • Despite a significant decline in military tension in the North since 2022, the risk of a future security competition with Russia and Nordic NATO members should not be downplayed. Presuming Russia is a status quo power in the North, NATO should have a clear and predictable posture in the North that combines deterrence and reassurance. • Russia should not be treated as a monolithic entity; there are moderates that would welcome diplomacy with Nordic NATO neighbours. Backchannel contacts between Russia and the Nordic NATO states can develop the outlines of an adjusted security posture for the North that could be received favourably by the new Trump Administration as it attempts to open negotiations to end the war in Ukraine
War in Europe and French Contributions to European Security
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, several European countries have had to reconsider their security and defense policies. This also applies to France. Although the changes in French security and defense policy do not represent a complete break with previous policy, the threat from the East has now gained increased significance for French defense planning as well. The most important changes in French security and defense policy are related to a shift in its policy towards Russia, increased support for Ukraine, and last but not least, a revised threat assessment and a considerable increase in defense budgets. With Russian aggression and uncertainty regarding the long-term U.S. commitment to European security, France’s focus on strategic autonomy has also gained broader support among European allies.
War in Europe: How Significantly Is European Security and Defence Policies Changing?
Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has contributed to a new and deteriorating security environment in Europe. Most countries in Europe have supported Ukraine in its defence against Russian aggression, but how significant are the broader changes in the defense and security policies of European states and actors? In this special issue, the contributors offer in-depth analyses of a number of actors: Denmark, France, Germany, Poland and the European Commission. There is some variation across the different analyses, but a main finding is that the changes in European defense and security policy are more fundamental than in response to the war in Ukraine alone.