NUPI’s Russia Conference 2024

Explore the highlights from the NUPI Russia Conference 2024, which was titled "Russia in Wartime – Weak or Strong?".

Published: October 28, 2024 Marie Furhovden

People

Kristin Fjæstad

Senior Research Fellow, head of the Research group on Russia, Asia and international trade

Margarita Zavadskaya

Senior Research Fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs

Jeremy Morris

Professor at Aarhus University

Svetlana Erpyleva

Researcher at Public Sociology Laboratory and the University of Bremen

Julie Wilhelmsen

Research Professor

Natalia Moen-Larsen

Senior Research Fellow

Kirill Shamiev

Visiting Fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations

Cecilie Sendstad

Principal Scientist at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment

Håvard Bækken

Senior Researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies

Kristian Lundby Gjerde

Senior Research Fellow

Timothy Frye

Professor at Columbia University

Matthew Blackburn

Senior Researcher

Minna Ålander

Research Fellow, Finnish Institute of International Affairs

Kadri Liik

Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)

Zbigniew Pisarski

Professor at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation

Jakub M. Godzimirski

Research Professor

The 2024 conference focused on Russia’s domestic political situation. The panel discussions addressed critical issues including public attitudes towards the war, changes in civilian oversight of the military, military propaganda, and the trajectory of the Russian economy following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The conference commenced with an opening address by NUPI researcher Kristin Fjæstad. Subsequently, State Secretary Eivind Vad Pettersson from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs delivered a speech emphasizing the significance of robust research on Russia and the importance of sustained and enhanced Russia expertise in Norway today.

Watch the Opening Remarks from the Russia Conference here

State-Society Relations

The first panel, titled "State-Society Relations," featured contributions from Margarita Zavadskaya (FIIA), Jeremy Morris (Aarhus University), Svetlana Erpyleva (University of Bremen and PS Labs), and Julie Wilhelmsen (NUPI). The panel examined the evolving state-society relationship in Russia 2.5 years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, presenting novel research on how the war in Ukraine is legitimized among Russians, sources of social unity, and the Kremlin’s governance strategies employed in Chechnya. NUPI researcher Natalia Moen-Larsen chaired the panel.

Watch Panel 1 from the Russia Conference here

Military and Economy

The second panel, "Military and Economy”, investigated the military's role in a Russia undergoing profound transformation. The discussion focused on three dimensions of current change: the structure and dynamics of the military itself, the military’s role in society and education, and the war's influence on, as well as its part in, Russia's economic landscape. The panelists included Kirill Shamiev (ECFR), Cecilie Sendstad (FFI), and Håvard Bækken (IFS), with NUPI researcher Kristian Lundby Gjerde moderating.

Watch Panel 2 from the Russia Conference here

Who supports the war in Ukraine, and how do we know?

After the lunch break, Timothy Frye (Columbia University) delivered this year’s keynote address. His presentation drew on survey data from Russia, collected both before and after February 2022, in order to analyze public attitudes towards the war in Ukraine. He explored the extent of public support for the continuation of the war and identified which social groups that are supportive. Additionally, Frye addressed methodological challenges related to conducting surveys on the war in Russia, offering insights into obtaining reliable data on public opinion. The presentation was followed by a discussion and Q&A with NUPI researcher Matthew Blackburn.

Watch the Keynote by Timothy Frye here

Neighbouring states and their policies towards Russia

The final panel, organized under the NORPOLFACTOR project, brought together Minna Ålander (FIIA), Kadri Liik (ECFR), and Zbigniew Pisarski (Casimir Pulaski Foundation) to discuss Northern Europe’s security environment in the context of Sweden and Finland’s NATO accession, as well as Poland’s stance towards Russia and the ongoing war. The panel was moderated by NUPI researcher Jakub M. Godzimirski.