Trump Back in the Driver's Seat

NUPI has recently published reports and opinion pieces on what the U.S. election results might mean for Europe and Norway. Additionally, we have two seminars next week that will offer important insights into what we can expect.

Events:

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America Votes – What's Next for Norway? 
How will the global shifts in light of the U.S. election influence Norway’s future and impact the broader international community? This informal fireside chat on the global implications of the U.S. elections will take place at The Conduit November 8. 
In the panel: 

• Niels Nagelhus Schia, NUPI
• Heidi Taksdal Skjeseth, Bloomberg

Americans Have Voted. What Does This Mean for Us? (in Norwegian)
This is one of the questions we will discuss when experts gather at NUPI on November 12.
In the panel:

• Marianne Riddervold, NUPI
• Vårin Alme, amerikanskpolitikk.no/FFI
• Karsten Friis, NUPI
• Moderator: Pernille Rieker, NUPI

USA after the election: Consequences for the Nordics and the Geopolitical Landscape
On November 14, researchers from five leading foreign policy institutes in the Nordic region will gather to analyze the consequences of the U.S. election.
In the panel: 

• Björn Fägersten, UI
• Andreas Bøje Forsby, DIIS
• Kristin Haugevik, NUPI
• Ida Maria Oma, IFS 
• Mikael Mattlin, FIIA
• Moderator: Ole Jacob Sending, NUPI

Op-ed:

Should Norway Become the 51st U.S. State? (in Norwegian)
In this op-ed in Aftenposten, Ole Jacob Sending argues that the U.S. presence in Norwegian foreign and security policy is so pervasive that it is hidden in plain sight. "It’s almost as if we’re already a kind of Puerto Rico," he writes.

What are the differences between Trump and Harris, and what do they mean for Europe? (in Norwegian)
NUPI researcher Marianne Riddervold has written this op-ed for Aftenposten.

Reports: 

“US and UK Elections: Implications for NATO and Northern European Security”

In this report, researchers Karsten Friis (NUPI), Ed Arnold (RUSI), and Max Bergmann (CSIS) discuss the potential implications of a victory by Harris or Trump, as well as the new British government’s security policy orientation. What does this mean for Norway and Northern Europe?

“Changing transatlantic relations – and what it means for Europe”

In a more uncertain world and with war in Europe, securing a strong relationship with their traditional partner and ally, the United States (US), is more important than ever for Europeans. Yet, Europe is facing a reality where there is a real possibility that transatlantic relations may be severely weakening. In this European policy analysis Marianne Riddervold (NUPI) explores ongoing changes in the transatlantic relationship, what this tells us about its future direction, and what this implies for Europe. Riddervold discusses what a second Trump, or a Harris, presidency might imply, the challenges facing European security and defence, and what must be done to address them. 

“The future of the US nuclear guarantee”

The war in Ukraine has the potential to fundamentally reshape Europe’s security landscape. This challenge is compounded by the deepening security cooperation between China and Russia. At the same time, political dysfunction in the United States raises concerns, and significant shifts in US security policy could diminish its commitment to Europe. Nuclear weapons play a pivotal role in great power politics, and the modernization of US strategic nuclear forces presents a major challenge. These developments may erode the credibility of the US extended deterrence and nuclear guarantee to Europe, writes NUPI senior advisor Svein Efjestad. 

Brothers in Arms and Faith? The Emerging US-Central and Eastern Europe ‘Special Relationship’

During the previous Trump administration, we saw a strengthened bond between the US, Hungary and Poland, with growing trade relations, intensified military cooperation, and stronger diplomatic ties. But behind this cooperation, there was also an emerging ideological fellowship rooted in national conservatism, nativism, sovereignty, the protection of Judeo-Christian values and interests, and an emphasis on ‘traditional family values.’ In this 2020 report Minda Holm (NUPI) and Vibeke Schou Tjalve (DIIS) discuss the implications these ideological ties entail for international politics.

Research article: 

Norway, the United States, and the Liberal Value Community (in Norwegian)

Norway’s relationship with the United States has been described by Norwegian foreign ministers as a 'community of values'. This focus article in Internasjonal Politikk, written after Trump’s previous electoral victory, discusses various issues related to the liberal community of values: from Trump’s break with previous policies, increased pressure on the so-called liberal world order, and widespread dissatisfaction with Western double standards. Senior Researcher Minda Holm (NUPI) emphasizes the need for greater clarity in what Norway means by this community of values, whether a value-based community is a necessary part of a security alliance with the United States, and what best serves Norway if it intends to maintain its emphasis on being a ‘good state’ with a special moral responsibility internationally.