Trump Back in the Driver's Seat

Here is an overview of what NUPI has published about what Trump's upcoming presidency could mean for us in Europe and Norway. Additionally, we have hosted a series of seminars that you can watch as recordings.

Op-eds (all in Norwegian):

What now?
It's time for Norway to develop a foreign policy for security—based on substance, not party politics, writes Julie Wilhelmsen.

Trump improvises geopolitics. And the press applauds.
The main reason Donald Trump is once again proposing to buy Greenland is that his political modus operandi resembles that of a reality TV star, write Halvard Leira, Benjamin de Carvalho, and Indra Øverland in this op-ed.

Can Trump end the war in Ukraine?
To fulfill his campaign promise of peace in Ukraine, Trump must pressure Putin to the negotiating table. That won’t be easy, writes Karsten Friis.

How are these two supposed to cooperate?
They don’t have much in common, Donald Trump and Keir Starmer. But does that mean we will see a British break with the US? In this op-ed for Dagsavisen, NUPI researchers Øyvind Svendsen and Paul Beaumont ask this very question.

Should Norway Become the 51st U.S. State?
In this op-ed in Aftenposten, Ole Jacob Sending argues that the U.S. presence in Norwegian foreign and security policy is so pervasive that it is hidden in plain sight. "It’s almost as if we’re already a kind of Puerto Rico," he writes.

What are the differences between Trump and Harris, and what do they mean for Europe?
NUPI researcher Marianne Riddervold has written this op-ed for Aftenposten.

Reports and policy briefs: 

Trump, Global Order, and the Liberal West
What does increased ideological and geopolitical global conflict mean for the liberal West? NUPI researcher Minda Holm explores this in a new report.

"Trump II: A new trajectory in Russia relations for NATO Nordic states"
How can the Nordic NATO states respond to Trump's new policy towards Russia? Julie Wilhelmsen and Matthew Blackburn address this question in this policy brief.

“US and UK Elections: Implications for NATO and Northern European Security”
In this report, researchers Karsten Friis (NUPI), Ed Arnold (RUSI), and Max Bergmann (CSIS) discuss the potential implications of a victory by Harris or Trump, as well as the new British government’s security policy orientation. What does this mean for Norway and Northern Europe?

“Changing transatlantic relations – and what it means for Europe”
In this European policy analysis Marianne Riddervold (NUPI) explores ongoing changes in the transatlantic relationship, what this tells us about its future direction, and what this implies for Europe. Riddervold discusses what a second Trump, or a Harris, presidency might imply, the challenges facing European security and defence, and what must be done to address them. 

“The future of the US nuclear guarantee”
Nuclear weapons play a pivotal role in great power politics, and the modernization of US strategic nuclear forces presents a major challenge. These developments may erode the credibility of the US extended deterrence and nuclear guarantee to Europe, writes NUPI senior advisor Svein Efjestad. 

"Brothers in Arms and Faith? The Emerging US-Central and Eastern Europe ‘Special Relationship’"
During the previous Trump administration, we saw a strengthened bond between the US, Hungary and Poland, with growing trade relations, intensified military cooperation, and stronger diplomatic ties. But behind this cooperation, there was also an emerging ideological fellowship rooted in national conservatism, nativism, sovereignty, the protection of Judeo-Christian values and interests, and an emphasis on ‘traditional family values.’ In this 2020 report Minda Holm (NUPI) and Vibeke Schou Tjalve (DIIS) discuss the implications these ideological ties entail for international politics.

Events:

The Impact of the US Presidential Election on European Security
In cooperation with The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) in London and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, NUPI co-hosted a briefing on the impact of the US presidential election result on European security November 20. This event was part of the Transatlantic Security research project between the three parties. See the recording here.

Americans Have Voted. What Does This Mean for Us? (in Norwegian)
This was one of the questions we discussed when experts gathered at NUPI on November 12. See the recording here.
 

USA after the election: Consequences for the Nordics and the Geopolitical Landscape
On November 14, researchers from five leading foreign policy institutes in the Nordic region gathered to analyze the consequences of the U.S. election. See the recording here.