Trump Back in the Driver's Seat
Changing transatlantic relations – and what it means for Europe
In a more uncertain world and with war in Europe, securing a strong relationship with their traditional partner and ally, the United States (US), is more important than ever for Europeans. Yet, Europe is facing a reality where there is a real possibility that transatlantic relations may be severely weakening. This European policy analysis explores ongoing changes in the transatlantic relationship, what this tells us about its future direction, and what this implies for Europe. It discusses what a second Trump, or a Harris, presidency might imply, the challenges facing European security and defence, and what must be done to address them. The analysis finds that extensive networks, trade relations, and interdependencies continue to make the transatlantic relationship the strongest interregional relationship in the world. However, domestic changes in the US and a changing geopolitical reality with the US prioritizing China over Europe mean that the transatlantic relationship is weaker than before. The future of European security and defence depends on its ability to increase its support for Ukraine, to strengthen its own security in NATO – in the EU and in closer cooperation between them – and to keep the US as close as possible.
NUPI’s Russia Conference 2024
How should the EU navigate multilateral cooperation?
This special episode of The World Stage is the first of a series that will give insight to the research from the NUPI-led research project The EU...
How should the EU navigate multilateral cooperation?
The future of the US nuclear guarantee
The war in Ukraine has the potential to fundamentally reshape Europe’s security landscape. This challenge is compounded by the deepening security cooperation between China and Russia. At the same time, political dysfunction in the United States raises concerns, and significant shifts in US security policy could diminish its commitment to Europe. Nuclear weapons play a pivotal role in great power politics. The modernization of US strategic nuclear forces presents a major challenge. These developments may erode the credibility of the US extended deterrence and nuclear guarantee to Europe. Given this context, it is crucial for European allies to strengthen their conventional defense capabilities, reducing reliance on nuclear forces. In addition, Europe should actively advocate for a robust nuclear deterrent. Although US tactical or sub-strategic nuclear weapons stationed in Europe represent only a small portion of America’s overall nuclear arsenal, they remain important. European nations should also pursue greater operational cooperation with US strategic forces, including hosting US strategic aircraft operations in their airspace and participating in joint training and exercises.
‘Europe must take more responsibility for its own security’
US and UK Elections: Implications for NATO and Northern European Security
How will the outcome of the US election impact security policy in the UK and Northern Europe? The report discusses potential consequences of a victory for Harris and Trump respectively, as well as the new British government's security policy orientation. What does this mean for Norway and Northern Europe?
Three new projects to NUPI
Breakfast seminar: How to ensure democratic resilience in Europe?
NUPI invites you to take part in the discussion about how we can safeguard democracy in Europe.