Norwegian public’s attitudes to foreign policy in 2024: a status quo nation in a time of global turmoil
What is the Norwegian public’s opinion on the state of the world? And what foreign policy does it want the Norwegian government to pursue? In this report, we present the findings from an opinion poll conducted by Sentio for NUPI in the period 18 to 24 April 2024. The global landscape is deeply unsettled, and we find ourselves in an era marked by considerable uncertainty about future developments in world politics. The great power rivalry between the United States and China is intensifying, the war in Ukraine continues to rage, the war in Gaza is causing immense human suffering and having major ramifications for the Middle East, and the effects of global warming are becoming increasingly apparent. The Norwegian government has warned through, for example, its intelligence service’s annual report on security threats, that Norway is facing its most serious security situation in decades.1 However, a key finding in our report is that the Norwegian public is somewhat measured in its assessments and considers the general threat level for Norway to be moderate, i.e. at a normal level. This suggests that the government’s actions have minimal impact on public opinion on world politics. The public’s failure to grasp the severity of the security situation is both surprising and alarming, as is its disregard for official communications about the geopolitical threats facing Norway. Against the backdrop of limited crisis comprehension, we see a relatively stable development in the Norwegian public’s attitudes to foreign policy since 2021, with the notable exception of attitudes to Russia, which have clearly hardened. NUPI conducted similar studies in 2020 and in connection with the general election in 2021,2 and in this report, we have asked many of the same questions as previously, in addition to some new ones. We therefore take this opportunity to compare our findings with the previous studies where appropriate, to gauge the extent of change in public opinion. This report and the survey it presents is financed by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung.
The state of European democracy
US and UK Elections: Implications for NATO and Northern European Security
Elections on both sides of the Atlantic have highlighted diverging views and increasing tensions over the importance of the security alliance, which celebrates its 75th anniversary this year. The most impactful election will undoubtedly take place in the United States, where the two candidates present Europe with remarkably different challenges. The re-election of President Joseph Biden to a second consecutive term in office will largely represent continuity albeit few clear incentives to undertake the transformational changes necessary for Europe to adapt to an increasingly volatile security landscape. On the other hand, if former President Donald Trump secures a second term in the Oval Office, Europeans could see their transatlantic security alliance thrown into turmoil and could be forced to consider difficult and uncomfortable steps to strengthen their own security. Voters will also head to the polls across Europe, including in the highly anticipated European Parliament elections, which will shape the composition of the next iteration of EU institutions. However, most notable for Northern European security will be elections in the United Kingdom on July 4th, which could lead to a change in the governing party for the first time in 14 years. A recent commitment by Downing Street to increase defence spending to 2.5 % by 2030 – reaching £87 billion in that year – has upped the ante towards its Labour opposition, which has suggested a similar increase but without providing a specific timeframe. As the NATO Alliance prepares for a 75th anniversary celebration in Washington, DC, questions loom regarding its capacity to deter a potentially emboldened Russia, particularly considering the Kremlin’s recent advances in the war in Ukraine, now entering its third year. This analysis assesses the implications of the upcoming elections on both sides of the Atlantic. It combines perspectives from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Norway, and assesses implications for NATO, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and future security in Northern Europe.
Breakfast seminar: USA and geopolitics
Kenneth R. Weinstein will give us insight into US foreign policy and geopolitics at this seminar.
Zooming in on the U.S.
CANCELLED: European democracy in decline?
This event is unfortunately cancelled.
Norway’s handling of knowledge relations with states outside its security cooperation
Norwegian authorities have for several years actively promoted internationalization of the knowledge sector. This includes collaboration with authoritarian countries such as China and Russia, which are not part of Norway’s security cooperation. However, in the last few years, we have seen a clear turn towards questions of national security and the status of liberal norms garnering more attention, also with consideration to knowledge relations. We observe this in sharper warnings from the security services, revised legislation and regulations and new guidelines for knowledge collaboration with countries such as China and Russia. In this article we study these changes and discuss their possible implications. Empirically, we build on survey and interview data, and we examine policy documents and media reports on relevant incidents. In terms of theory, we draw on explanations grounded in the geopolitics and securitization literature. We argue that measures that are introduced to protect national security and liberal norms may also limit the operational space for independent research and thus change the parameters for academic freedom, especially in relation to activities with connection to actors from non-allied states. To avoid unnecessarily restrictive conditions, researchers and their institutions should actively demonstrate and communicate how they work to ensure responsibility in their knowledge relations. This is especially important in situations where ethical and security-related challenges are obvious.
Poland and Norway in a changing geopolitical landscape
Which security-related challenges, risks and threats do Poland and Norway face in their strategic environment in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? And what impact has the Russian invasion of Ukraine had on perceptions of security in the two countries?
Nordic countries and knowledge collaboration with authoritarian non-allied states: conditional openness with stronger demands for protection
The conditions surrounding international knowledge production and collaboration are changing. What has long remained a field characterized by overtly liberal and open practices is now subject to more scrutiny with regards to protecting national security and academic freedom. Developments concerning China especially, but also Russia, and other authoritarian states with knowledge-related ambitions have alerted authorities in many liberal, democratic states. This is the case in the Nordic region, too. In this focus edition, we study why and how stricter conditions for international knowledge collaboration are emerging in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland. We are especially interested in problematizing and explaining what happens when stronger security concerns and calls for protection meet liberal norms, including academic freedom.