‘Europe must take more responsibility for its own security’

On November 6, it was confirmed that Donald J. Trump will be the next president of the United States.

‘If Trump continues to signal that "we will not be drawn into new wars," it could, in the worst case, be interpreted as a reluctance to support allies. We will see what he says going forward, but this is a concern that exists in several capitals,’ says researcher Karsten Friis (NUPI).

He is one of the authors behind the NUPI report US and UK Elections: Implications for NATO and Northern European Security, published this week. 

Co-authors include Ed Arnold (Senior Research Fellow, RUSI) and Max Bergmann (Director of the Europe, Asia, and Eurasia Program at CSIS).

The report examined what Europe can expect in terms of defense and security if either Trump or Harris won the election. Now the result is clear.

Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw the US from NATO. Friis doesn’t believe this will happen but is clear that such statements can be dangerous.

‘They can invite provocations and tests, meaning that Russia or China might test us, thus creating new situations where we are forced to react. So, it could lead to a more dangerous situation,’ he says.

In any case, Europe must take more responsibility for its own security, according to the report. Trump has expressed skepticism toward support for Ukraine many times.

‘If all European states panic, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The best way to ensure continued American support for NATO is for Europe to show determination regarding its own security and increase support for Ukraine,’ says Friis.

He adds:

‘The US's focus on the Asia-Pacific is growing, and military and political resources are limited. Europe will likely have to prepare to shoulder an even greater share of the security burden in the years to come’

Key points in the report:

• The U.S. presidential election will have significant consequences for the future of NATO and European security, with the potential for major differences depending on the outcome.
• Harris will likely offer more continuity with the current Biden administration's policy towards NATO and Ukraine. However, European allies should be prepared for the possibility that the U.S. may shift more resources and attention to the Asia-Pacific region, given China's ambitions and influence.
• A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty and potentially a dramatic shift in U.S. NATO policy. Trump's long-standing skepticism toward the alliance, along with influence from advisors who share this view, could lead to a significant weakening of the U.S.' role in European security.
• Harris has assured Europe of her and the U.S.' commitment to European security. Therefore, European states will have few incentives to take the necessary steps to adapt to an increasingly uncertain security situation.
• With Trump in the White House, Europeans might experience the security alliance with the U.S. thrown into chaos, and thus be forced to consider difficult and uncomfortable steps to strengthen their own security.
• The UK's new Labour government, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has expressed an approach that puts "NATO first" and seeks to "reset" relations with Europe. They are conducting a strategic defense review to assess future security needs in light of the changing geopolitical landscape. In this, the outcome of the U.S. election is a crucial factor.
• Norway and other Nordic countries must prepare for reduced U.S. military presence in Europe regardless of who wins the election. This makes it necessary for Europe to take on more responsibility for defense and for closer cooperation among allies, including increased defense budgets and the integration of military forces.