The IDP situation in Borno State, Nigeria – returning to uncertainty?

Nigeria is faced with a protracted displacement crisis caused by jihadist insurgencies, banditry and natural disasters. This crisis is particularly manifest in the north-east, where for more than 12 years over 2 million people have been forced to move in to, out of and between internally displaced person (IDP) camps and informal settlements. Some have tried to return home or resettle to another community, only to have to move again. All suffer from limited access to essential services such as healthcare and education, and deficiencies in food security and adequate shelter. Moreover, the young age of the IDP population means many camp residents have few, if any, memories of their lives prior to leaving their homes of origin.

The state of Borno is one of the most affected in Nigeria. Here, about 900,000 people continue to live in about 65 formal and 158 informal camps. In 2021, Borno State Governor Prof Babagana Umara Zulum began the process of closing the camps and returning IDPs to their homes of origin. While more than 100,000 people have already moved out of the camps, uncertain remains as to what the majority of IDPs will do once the camps are closed. This report aims to fill this knowledge gap by presenting a foresight study that, coupled with analysis of previous studies, draws on ethnographic data and field observations collected among IDP populations around Maiduguri in October 2024. The foresight analysis framework used relies on three inter-related factors: 1) the weight of history; 2) the contradictions of the present; and 3) the pull of the future. While this method cannot offer statistical representativity, it does allow for indicative scenarios encompassing known (albeit uncertain) risks and probable futures. These scenarios are not only valuable for policy planning, but constitute important pilot data for larger, more systematic studies going forward.