Publications

Climate Obstruction in Poland: A Governmental–Industrial Complex

Poland is known for its climate scepticism and denial throughout the 1990s and 2000s. Despite its recent rapid deployment of renewable energy sources, Poland remains Europe’s most coal-dependent economy. Since 2004, consecutive governments have been ‘pulling the brake’ on the European Union’s more ambitious climate policy initiatives and decarbonization targets. There are recent signs of changing societal attitudes, but the country is alone among EU nations in lacking a net zero emissions target or a coal power phase-out date. This situation has been created and perpetuated by a coalition of governmental institutions, agencies, state-owned energy companies, and utilities that constitute a governmental–industrial complex (GIC). While the GIC has moderated its discourse and policies, it continues to promote ‘silver bullet’ technologies such as ‘clean’ coal and new nuclear power plants. Poland’s commitment to a just, gradual energy transition is a climate imposter tactic, part of an overarching strategy of delay.

The urgent need for social science and humanities knowledge for climate action in Europe

Small states coalition building in EU policy-making The cases of the Nordic and Baltic countries

Forming coalitions in various forms and shapes – institutionalized or ad hoc without any permanent structures, territorially constituted, i.e., consisting of countries from one region, or theme based – has become an important tool for small- and medium-sized EU member states in order to increase their political weight and impact in EU policy-making. On the basis of a conceptional and theoretical framework that distinguishes between different types of coalitions and the Baltic and Nordic EU member states as case studies, this chapter analyzes the use of coalitions for small states in an EU context along a number of examples of mainly regional coalitions. One important finding is that for defending their national interests Nordic and Baltic EU members’ governments overall seem to prefer flexible, issue-specific intergovernmental, non-institutionalized ad hoc coalitions consisting of a smaller number of like-minded countries. In contrast, while in the academic literature institutionalized coalitions and alliances are often labelled as the highest category of coalitions and indeed are good for informal consultations in a Nordic-Baltic context, in practice they do not seem to be preferred by these countries’ governments for negotiations in EU policy-making because of being not flexible enough or too small in terms of members.

Norwegian public’s attitudes to foreign policy in 2024: a status quo nation in a time of global turmoil

What is the Norwegian public’s opinion on the state of the world? And what foreign policy does it want the Norwegian government to pursue? In this report, we present the findings from an opinion poll conducted by Sentio for NUPI in the period 18 to 24 April 2024. The global landscape is deeply unsettled, and we find ourselves in an era marked by considerable uncertainty about future developments in world politics. The great power rivalry between the United States and China is intensifying, the war in Ukraine continues to rage, the war in Gaza is causing immense human suffering and having major ramifications for the Middle East, and the effects of global warming are becoming increasingly apparent. The Norwegian government has warned through, for example, its intelligence service’s annual report on security threats, that Norway is facing its most serious security situation in decades.1 However, a key finding in our report is that the Norwegian public is somewhat measured in its assessments and considers the general threat level for Norway to be moderate, i.e. at a normal level. This suggests that the government’s actions have minimal impact on public opinion on world politics. The public’s failure to grasp the severity of the security situation is both surprising and alarming, as is its disregard for official communications about the geopolitical threats facing Norway. Against the backdrop of limited crisis comprehension, we see a relatively stable development in the Norwegian public’s attitudes to foreign policy since 2021, with the notable exception of attitudes to Russia, which have clearly hardened. NUPI conducted similar studies in 2020 and in connection with the general election in 2021,2 and in this report, we have asked many of the same questions as previously, in addition to some new ones. We therefore take this opportunity to compare our findings with the previous studies where appropriate, to gauge the extent of change in public opinion. This report and the survey it presents is financed by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung.

Will a more humble NATO be a stronger NATO?

NATO’s narrative about itself has changed. However, this narrative is unlikely to gain much support elsewhere in the world, claim the authors of this op-ed in Aftenposten. NATO turns 75 and describes itself as "the world’s most successful military alliance". Like all other viable international actors, NATO must be able to look itself in the mirror and critically reflect on its own actions to maintain legitimacy both among its own populations and in the wider world, and, if necessary, adjust its course. This article, based on a longer analysis published in the journal Contemporary Security Policy, is an attempt to contribute to this reflection.

Reinforcing Trust, Evoking Nostalgia and Contrasting China: Japan's Foreign Policy Repertoire and Identity Construction in Myanmar

In the immediate aftermath of the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021, Western countries and the EU condemned the coup, imposed targeted sanctions against military leaders and military-owned companies, and redirected essential humanitarian aid to NGOs. Japan, however, chose to neither align with its democratic allies nor completely suspend its aid. Despite a long and complicated pre-war history and limited engagement after 1988, Japan-Myanmar relations experienced a resurgence between 2012 and 2021. This article contends that one key driving force in contemporary relations is identity construction. Drawing on the literature on relational identity and foreign policy repertoires, the article demonstrates how the discursive statements and embodied practices of a network of Japanese identity entrepreneurs activate, negotiate, and renegotiate the identities of the Japanese Self and its Others. Through an analysis of interviews conducted with elite stakeholders in Myanmar and Japan, the article studies Japan’s constructed identity as an economic great power and post-war development pioneer, peace promoter, and diplomatic mediator. It finds that Japan constructs its identity temporally in terms of nostalgia (natsukashisa) and a longing for a time when Japan was a post-war industrial powerhouse, but also spatially in terms of Japan’s legal, moral, and industrial superiority over other countries involved in Myanmar’s development, in particular vis-à-vis China.

US and UK Elections: Implications for NATO and Northern European Security

This report was written before President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 US President Elections. An updated report can be found here: https://www.nupi.no/en/publications/cristin-pub/us-and-uk-elections-implications-for-nato-and-northern-european-security2 Elections on both sides of the Atlantic have highlighted diverging views and increasing tensions over the importance of the security alliance, which celebrates its 75th anniversary this year. The most impactful election will undoubtedly take place in the United States, where the two candidates present Europe with remarkably different challenges. The re-election of President Joseph Biden to a second consecutive term in office will largely represent continuity albeit few clear incentives to undertake the transformational changes necessary for Europe to adapt to an increasingly volatile security landscape. On the other hand, if former President Donald Trump secures a second term in the Oval Office, Europeans could see their transatlantic security alliance thrown into turmoil and could be forced to consider difficult and uncomfortable steps to strengthen their own security. Voters will also head to the polls across Europe, including in the highly anticipated European Parliament elections, which will shape the composition of the next iteration of EU institutions. However, most notable for Northern European security will be elections in the United Kingdom on July 4th, which could lead to a change in the governing party for the first time in 14 years. A recent commitment by Downing Street to increase defence spending to 2.5 % by 2030 – reaching £87 billion in that year – has upped the ante towards its Labour opposition, which has suggested a similar increase but without providing a specific timeframe. As the NATO Alliance prepares for a 75th anniversary celebration in Washington, DC, questions loom regarding its capacity to deter a potentially emboldened Russia, particularly considering the Kremlin’s recent advances in the war in Ukraine, now entering its third year. This analysis assesses the implications of the upcoming elections on both sides of the Atlantic. It combines perspectives from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Norway, and assesses implications for NATO, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and future security in Northern Europe.

Polish-Norwegian Perceptions and Interactions

This working paper, which is one of deliverables of the NORPOLFACTOR project, maps mutual perceptions of Poland in Norway and Norway in Poland, the basic ideas informing their approaches to security-related challenges caused by their location in Russia’s neighbourhood as well as what could be termed as areas of cooperation and points of contention in their cooperation on addressing various security related challenges in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Pragmatism and protest: Russia’s communist party through Covid-19 and beyond

The Covid-19 epidemic came at a sensitive time for Russia’s leadership, which was attempting a political reset and structural reforms, including the removal of President Putin’s presidential term limits. This article examines how issues related to the pandemic provided new opportunities for the systemic opposition, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, who emerged as the main beneficiaries after capitalising on opportunities created by the epidemic. The underappreciated role of systemic opposition parties in electoral authoritarian systems, which balance “voice” and “loyalty” to benefit both themselves and the regime, is examined in the context of the Covid-19 crisis.

United Nations Truce Supervision Organization Role, Relevance, Function, and Utility – Lessons for Future Peace Operations

The aim of the study is, firstly, to assess the role, relevance, function, and utility of UNTSO, and secondly, to identify what lessons can be learnt from UNTSO’s model and experience that can help to inform the future of UN peace operations in the context of the UN Secretary-General’s policy brief on a New Agenda for Peace, as well as in the preparations for the Summit of the Future. The effectiveness of peace operations is dependent on the political backing, financial support, and deployment of trained peacekeepers by the UN Member States. While recognising the important roles of the UN missions, the UN Secretariat, host states, and other key stakeholders and contributors, the primary audience for the present study’s findings and recommendations is the UN Security Council and UN Member States. Although the study is primarily focused on UN peace operations, it is suggested that the findings can also be informative for strengthening the role of observers in other organisations, including regional organisations, and can enhance cooperation between different organisations in dealing with peace and security issues. As outlined in Our Common Agenda, an emerging “networked multilateral system” requires enhanced and specialised capabilities, and broader thinking for wider application and cooperation beyond the immediate organisation and structure of current peace operations.