Publications
Emerging powers, the G20, and reform of multilateral institutions
Emerging powers are becoming increasingly important in the global economy, are being courted for support by both the US and China and make up a powerful bloc within informal governance institutions such as the G20. They also voice increasingly vocal calls for reform of the UN, the World Bank and the IMF. This report analyzes how Brazil, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and South Africa see key reform issues and how they prioritize among different foreign policy objectives in the context of the agenda of the G20.
Introducing the Latin American Transnational Surveillance (LATS) dataset
Transnational surveillance is a powerful tool in the arsenal of autocrats the world over. Despite its pervasive use in extraterritorial coercion, the systematic study of surveillance of regime opponents beyond national borders remains underdeveloped in political science, primarily due to limited data availability. To help fill this gap, we constructed the Latin American Transnational Surveillance dataset, a micro-level dataset based on declassified foreign surveillance reports produced between 1966 and 1986 by autocratic Brazil. Latin American Transnational Surveillance records the identity, locations, social ties and political activism of 17,000 individual targets of transnational surveillance, the vast majority of whom were tracked in neighbouring countries across Latin America. Drawing on these abundant data, we empirically explore existing theoretical insights about the motivations, methods and consequences of transnational surveillance, a task that would be difficult to do using other sources. We also leverage social network analysis to showcase potential applications of Latin American Transnational Surveillance in the testing of collective-action theories of transnational political violence.
Reforming the International Financial Architecture: Chinese Perspectives and Broader Developing Country Interests
The international financial architecture has long been ripe for reform, and several reform tracks are currently evolving with the potential to tackle some of the most debated issues. China, which among the top shareholders in all the architecture’s key institutions, is the world’s second-largest economy and the largest official bilateral creditor, plays a critical role in reform discussions. In this report, we discuss central reform issues and consider the Chinese perspectives and their relevance to broader developing country interests. The report concludes that China is actively involved and supports reform initiatives but is wary of changes that move around the bigger issue of country representation and voting.
Expelled from the Fairytale: The Impact of the Dissident Legacy on Post-1989 Central European Politics
To understand the political dimension of dissident legacies, we need first to understand the components that “made” the dissidents and follow their reconfiguration after 1989, leading to initial empowerment followed by gradual demise of the liberal post-dissident elite. Dissidence in the form that first appeared in the late 1960s and early 1970s in central and eastern Europe constituted a particular mode of political practice, combining open, non-violent dissent with universalist moral claims. The phenomenon of dissidentism was transnational, as political empowerment of oppositionists was achieved through a particular network of relationships between domestic audiences, repressive regimes, and Western media, social movements, trade unions, political parties, and policymakers. The specificities of the dissidents’ empowerment can partly explain key features of post-dissident politics and the visible backlash against former prominent dissidents, which has contributed to the rise of illiberalism and to democratic backsliding. This article traces the post-1989 trajectories of a few who belonged among central Europe’s most prominent representatives in this symbolic category, to try to explain the causes and character of the swift backlash against them—or as Václav Havel put it, their “expulsion from the fairytale.” Three pillars of dissident political power turned into the roots of their demise. First, critics question the dissidents’ uniqueness and rewrite their master narrative. Further, we see a clash of representations that results from the dissidents’ transnational empowerment, and third, the broader anti-elite and anti-intellectual tendencies that always accompanied dissidence as its shadow became amplified by more recent populist rhetoric.
Improving the impact of the UN Peacebuilding Commission and enhancing the synergy of the Peacebuilding Architecture - Input Paper for the 2025 (...
The United Nations Peacebuilding Architecture – consisting of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), the Peacebuilding Fund (PBF) and the Peacebuilding Support Office (PBSO) - was established in 2005. In 2025, 20 years after the PBA was established, the Architecture will undergo a review. This Input Paper, by researchers from the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), serves as an input to this review. It is informed by NUPI’s research on peacebuilding and related areas, including the research undertaken in support of the previous 5-, 10- and 15-year reviews of the Peacebuilding Architecture. The main challenge that has consistently been identified over the years, including in previous reviews of the Peacebuilding Architecture, is the perceived lack of impact and relevance of the Peacebuilding Commission. In our assessment, the Peacebuilding Commission’s attention to countries and regions are too ad hoc and fleeting to generate meaningful information and analysis. This is one of the main areas that we single out for improvement. This input paper therefore focuses on providing a set of practical recommendations for how the impact of the Peacebuilding Commission can be improved, and how the synergies of the Peacebuilding Architecture can be enhanced.
Ecosystems and Ordering: A Dataset
This article presents a dataset, examining how global ecosystems are governed, offering data about cooperation initiatives around 221 cross-bordered ecosystems. This sample of cases was selected from a list of 1525 “meta-ecosystems” catalogued by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and a team of scientists (terrestrial ecosystems, [6]; freshwater ecosystems, [2]; and marine ecosystems, [9]). The 221 ecosystems were selected because they are shared by four or more bordering countries. Departing from this unit of analysis, we researched the cooperative cross-border governance anchored in each ecosystem and categorized each of these based on the level and type of cooperation. In generating this dataset, our coding scheme was designed to also capture cases of non-cooperation: when our search protocol did not result in the identification of any initiative for an ecosystem, the ecosystem was coded as a “zero case.” When we found initiatives connected to the ecosystems, our coding typology specifically classified cooperation initiatives along two dimensions: cooperation geographical scope and cooperation scope (single or multi-issue). The dataset presents ecosystem-anchored cooperation initiatives, as well as wider initiatives that may address ecosystem issues, to systematically attend to the question of the extent to which and in which form ecosystems are addressed in transboundary governance efforts. The dataset allows for further study of ecosystemic governance patterns, enabling analysis of the causes and consequences of cooperation, since it can be easily integrated with both the ecosystem and state-level data. The dataset is presented in two .csv files and has been handled with R software in order to present the visualization.
Women, Peace and Security in MONUSCO: Trends, Lessons and Emerging Practices
For nearly 25 years, the United Nations (UN) has had a peacekeeping mission deployed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The UN Organization Mission in the DRC (MONUC) was deployed in 1999. The deployment of MONUC coincided with an evolution taking place in the UN Security Council regarding the centrality of women’s political participation in peace processes and the importance of considering women’s protection needs as part of the maintenance of international peace and security. The adoption of Security Council Resolution 1325 and the establishment of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda in the year 2000 would have an instrumental impact on the mandates of UN peacekeeping missions, including those deployed in the DRC over the following two decades. This report examines how MONUSCO has worked to implement the WPS dimensions of its mandate in the period 2010 to 2021. Assessing the approach to the mandate and its more recent implementation offers insights into the contribution and limitations of UN peacekeeping when it comes to advancing women’s protection and meaningful participation in a conflict-affected environment. MONUSCO’s approach to WPS has evolved in the period under study. The mandate had a rather narrow understanding of WPS at the outset, with provisions to address violence and threats towards women, reflective of the insecurity and gendered threats within the DRC. These threats have remained, as have more comprehensive provisions in the mandate to address them, but the mandate has also evolved in recent years to include a more substantive focus on women’s participation in conflict prevention and political processes. The mission has developed a range of innovative practices targeted at improving women’s security and equality in the country, as part of the WPS provisions in MONUSCO’s mandate. These have included developing a women mediators’ network, mapping security threats to women, supporting initiatives to address discriminatory media coverage, and implementing positive masculinity programmes. This report offers recommendations to MONUSCO, UN Headquarters, the Security Council and Member States, troop- and police-contributing countries (T/PCCs), and the national authorities when it comes to strengthening the implementation of the WPS aspects of the mission’s mandate in the DRC, with wider lessons for other UN peacekeeping missions in terms of their approach to WPS.
Sweden’s thorny path into NATO: a changing country is finding its new place
On 7 March 2024, Sweden joined NATO after almost two years waiting for Turkey’s and Hungary’s approval. Sweden’s difficulties joining NATO due to Turkish and Hungarian resistance and its ambivalent reactions to related pressure were symptomatic for the country’s cumbersome switch from its normative non-aligned foreign and security policy towards a more conventional hard security and collective defence policy. Along those lines, the country’s self-perception and role as an international actor has changed significantly within only two years. Sweden quickly adapted to its new role as a NATO member, prepared involvement in NATO operations, stepped up military support for Ukraine and increased military spending, strengthening its armed forces significantly. This matches Norway’s recent plans for enhancing its defence, facilitating even closer Nordic cooperation, especially in the High North.
Prestige and punishment: Status symbols and the danger of white elephants
This article identifies and unpacks the intrinsic potential for backlash in the pursuit of status symbols. While status loss has been associated with domestic pushback and reduced legitimacy for ruling governments, the literature on status is yet to examine how status-seeking can backfire even when a state can successfully claim to have acquired a status symbol. We contend that status backlashes are an inherent risk of status-seeking due to the multivocality of costly status symbols. Our heuristic framework for studying status backlashes proposes examining modes of critique that construe status symbols as irrational or unjustified costly endeavours, undermining their legitimating capacity and potentially even transforming them into a marker of stigma. Empirically, we identify three modes of critique present in reactions to Brazil’s hosting of the World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016. There, despite recognizing the symbolic value of hosting these mega-events, Brazilian audiences also criticized the government for the opportunity costs, vested interests and subservience that it entailed. Undertaking two shadow case studies – on the backlash against the United Kingdom’s renewal of its Trident nuclear weapons system and Norway’s engagement in military interventions between 1999 and 2012 – we document how these modes of critique associated with status symbols can travel across contexts.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Central African Republic
The Central African Republic (CAR) is highly exposed to the impacts of climate change due to socioecological vulnerabilities and ongoing insecurity. Drivers of vulnerability include the absence of state authority, natural resource mismanagement, and low household and community resilience. Although the security situation has improved in recent years, it remains volatile; factions of the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), self-defence groups and bandits regularly clash with government forces, allies and mercenaries such as the Wagner Group (now Africa Corps) in rural areas. A changing climate and the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel and the Great Lakes region have driven transhumant pastoralists further into CAR earlier in the transhumance season, creating tensions. Additionally, the spillover effects of the war in Sudan have put added pressure on the humanitarian situation in CAR, particularly in the Vakaga and Haute-Kotto prefectures.