Senter for energiforskning

EU climate and energy policy: new challenges for old energy suppliers

Climate policy will transform the EU energy demand mix. This has implications for the main suppliers of fossil fuels to the EU, foremost among which are Algeria, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA. Norway has a better starting point for adapting to changing EU energy demand than the other energy suppliers and therefore represents a best-case scenario. Whatever Norway fails to do, the other countries are even less likely to achieve. The question is whether Norway has been quick enough to exploit the opportunities to play a proactive role in the EU’s energy transition. This chapter argues that it has not, dragging its feet on natural gas vehicles, Norwegian wind power, electricity interconnectors, green battery development and mixing of hydrogen into natural gas. Some possible reasons for the tardiness are Norway’s dual resource course of oil and hydropower, carbon lock-in, energy populism, resource nationalism and blind spots in the perception of Norway’s place in international climate and energy policy.

The geopolitics of renewable energy: Debunking four emerging myths

This article seeks to nip in the bud four emerging myths about the geopolitics of the rise of renewable energy and the concomitant increase in electricity usage. The article presents alternative perspectives, arguing that (1) the risk of geopolitical competition over critical materials for renewable energy is limited; (2) the resource curse as we know it from the petroleum sector will not necessarily reappear in many countries in connection with renewable energy; (3) transboundary electricity cut-offs will mostly be unsuitable as a geopolitical weapon; and (4) it is not clear that growing use of renewable energy will exacerbate cyber-security risks. In all four areas, the evolving literature could place more emphasis on uncertainty and risks and less on one-sided scenarios and maximization of threats.

A Place in the Sun? IRENA’s Position in the Global Energy Governance Landscape

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), created in 2009, is the only intergovernmental organization dedicated to renewable energy. Drawing on several new datasets, this article explores IRENA in the context of three other major international energy organizations: the International Atomic Energy Agency, the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Through this analysis, several empirical approaches to comparing international energy organizations are tried out. Direct comparison between IRENA other international energy organizations is found to be problematic as each organization is different and comparisons inevitably encounter apples and oranges type issues. The study finds that IRENA’s niche in international renewable energy governance is not yet fully carved out, but that the organization’s mandate and institutional structure, as well as recent international developments, indicate that it may grow rapidly in importance.

Public Brainpower: Civil Society and Natural Resource Management

This book discusses how civil society, public debate and freedom of speech affect the management of natural resources. Drawing on the work of Robert Dahl, Jürgen Habermas and Robert Putnam, the book introduces the concept of public brainpower. Good governance of natural resources requires fertile public debate – to conceive new institutions, to provide checks and balances on existing institutions and to ensure their continuous dynamic evolution as the needs of society change. The book explores the strengths and weaknesses of these ideas through case studies of 18 oil and gas-producing countries: Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Canada, Colombia, Egypt, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Libya, the Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the UK and Venezuela. The concluding chapter presents 10 tenets on how states can maximize their public brainpower, as well as a ranking of how well 33 resource-rich countries have succeeded in doing so. Four of the chapters – ‘Introduction’, ‘Norway’, ‘Kazakhstan’ and ‘Russia’ – are available under a CC BY 4.0 Open Access license at ResearchGate: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320656629_Introduction_Civil_Society_Public_Debate_and_Natural_Resource_Management (Introduction) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320657120 (Norway) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320657015 (Kazakhstan) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320657842 (Russia)

Impact of Climate Change on ASEAN International Affairs: Risk and Opportunity Multiplier

This study examines the implications of climate change for international affairs in Southeast Asia and for ASEAN as a multilateral organization. Climate change and efforts to mitigate climate change give rise to major risks as well as opportunities in international affairs. It is therefore in the interest of all countries to be aware of the risks and prepare for them, and the overarching purpose of this study is to support ASEAN and its member states in this area. Given Southeast Asia’s complex geography—with numerous archipelagoes, long coastlines, intricate borders, and great-power neighbors—climate change is especially likely to affect interstate relations in the region.Climate change may impact on international affairs among the ASEAN countries at several levels. Firstly, changing climatic conditions may affect interstate relations through humanitarian crises, migration, and/or the need for greater imports of vital goods. Secondly, reducing greenhouse gas emissions requires international coordination and cooperation. Thirdly, the global energy transition driven by climate policy may lead to an altered geopolitical situation in the world, including ASEAN.

Ranking Oil, Gas and Mining Companies on Indigenous Rights in the Arctic

Nord Stream 2: policy dilemmas and the future of EU gas market

The Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline project is one of the most controversial issues in EU gas-related debates today. Its proponents hold that the project is driven by purely commercial considerations, while opponents label it as political and contradictory to EU goals and rules. The project has also contributed to raising several questions concerning the role of commercial actors in the shaping and realization of the EU energy policy as well as the impact on EU internal cohesion and relations with Ukraine and Russia. Realization of NS2 may boost the role of Russian gas in the European energy mix, especially in northwestern Europe; however, it could also undermine the credibility of the common EU energy policy, which aims, at least formally, at diversification of supply routes and suppliers as a joint and coordinated response to the energy-security challenges faced by the EU as a whole and by its member states. This Policy Brief sheds light on the current state of the debate on this project and examines the possible short-, mid- and long-term implications.

Arctic petroleum's community impacts: Local perceptions from Hammerfest, Norway

Public Administration Reform and Its Implications for Foreign Petroleum Companies in Kazakhstan

Russia–EU Energy Relations: from Complementarity to Distrust?

EU Leadership in Energy and Environmental Governance: Global and Local Challenges and Responses

This edited collection focuses on the impact of the changing global distribution of power on the EU's energy policy and ability to project its approach to energy-related issues abroad. The authors map the EU's energy governance, its changing global position and the impact of various factors on its capacity to pursue its interests in the field of energy. They also provide insights into the internal and external energy policy of the EU, and explores how various EU institutions shape energy policy. They examine, moreover, the state of the EU's relations with its external energy suppliers, such as Russia, and with other global energy actors, such as China, the main global consumer of energy; the USA, which is going through a technologically-driven energy revolution; and Brazil, which may become a key global energy player.

Engergy Security in the Baltic Sea Region: Regional coordination and and management of interdependencies

The study maps changing energy relations in the Baltic Sea region in the aftermath of two events – the 2004 EU enlargement that has changed the political and institutional / regulatory landscape of the region and the outbreak of the armed conflict in Ukraine that has put the issue of energy security – and security in more general terms – very high on the European political agenda. It discusses how the regional distribution of energy resources and energy policies have contributed to altering the level of energy security in the whole region and in particular countries, how various actors have addressed energy security concerns by cooperative policies, in particular, EU wide and sub-regional (Nordic, Baltic) coordination measures aimed at managing energy interdependencies and increasing energy security.

Future Petroleum Geopolitics: Consequences of Climate Policy and Unconventional Oil and Gas

Joining Rosneft in the Sea of Okhotsk: Statoil's Pivot to Asia?

Financial Sanctions Impact Russian Oil, Equipment Export Ban's Effects Limited

International Arctic Petroleum Cooperation: Barents Sea Scenarios

Has the EU Learnt from the Ukraine Crisis? Changes to Security, Energy and Migration Governance

The Russia-Ukraine crisis has not only dramatically changed the EU’s security situation but also poses challenges well beyond the security arena. The conflict between Europe’s main energy supplier and its most important gas transit country has already had an impact on regional energy cooperation. The gas-price dispute between Russia’s Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftohaz has halted gas deliveries to Ukraine. This in turn has raised fears of potential disruptions of gas supplies to the rest of Europe, putting energy security and solidarity mechanisms in the spotlight. The conflict also has had an obvious humanitarian dimension with the wide displacement of people from areas with fighting. Estimates of these people show many Ukrainians are seeking shelter in the EU. With the beginning of the new legislative cycle, the EU has the chance to respond to these outside events through its own internal logic of action. But have the lessons been fully understood? Is Europe lacking some instruments specific to the current crisis or are the deficiencies more structural? Find out in the new publication by the GoodGov project in which its authors analyse the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on EU security, energy and migration and take a closer look at Poland and Norway, two medium-size countries with different relations with the EU.

The Power to Influence Europe? Russia’s Grand Gas Strategy, PISM Strategic File 6(69)

As most of Russia’s energy exports go to the European Union, both players are strongly interdependent. For Russia energy resources, especially gas, are viewed as a tool to project power beyond its borders. However, Russia’s room for “gas manoeuvre” is constrained by its own capacities, the gas strategies of other players, and the EU’s ability to project its regulatory power. As Russia’s relations with Europe go beyond purely economic practices, and inevitably have geopolitical overtones, Europe should, in the short-term, try to limit the damage caused by the current application of Russian grand strategy; in the long-term, it should find out how to influence it, to its benefit.

Macht aus der Pipeline: Russlands Energiepolitik und die EU

Russland nutzt seine Energieressourcen zu geopolitischen Zwecken. Gazprom ist pro forma ein unabhängiges Unternehmen, de facto aber Mittel zu Zwecken, die der Kreml vorgibt. So werden etwa die Gaspreise für die Nachbarstaaten in Abhängigkeit von der politischen Nähe der jeweiligen Führung zum Kreml festgelegt, und es zeigt sich auch in der Krise zwischen Russland und der Ukraine. Auf dem europäischen Energiemarkt ist die Abhängigkeit von Gas aus Russland aufgrund der Leitungsgebundenheit ein besonders sensibler Aspekt der Energiesicherheit. Die EU wäre gut beraten, für ihre Energiepolitik nach Alternativen zu suchen.

Energy in the neighborhood: Russian and EU perspectives and policies

Project: Mapping Polish and Norwegian perspective on regional integration in Eastern Europe

Innovation, networks and energy governance: The case of shale gas, GR:EEN Policy Brief 22

This Policy Brief explores the role of technological innovation in shaping energy governance and how energy governance is being shaped by actors operating in various types of policy networks in the EU. The main aim of this brief is to explore how new technology – in this case the technology making it possible to produce gas and oil from shale deposits – is about to change the situation in the regional and global energy markets and to analyse the impact of this new technology on energy governance in the EU and in member states.

Petroleum revenue and Caspian security, conflict driver or means of conflict resolution

How does the search for energy security affect EU policies in other issue-areas? GR:EEN Policy Brief 23

This policy brief addresses the question of how the EU’s search for energy security does – or does not – affect EU policies in other areas. Due to the fact that the EU has to import energy commodities to meet its energy needs, and that coping with the challenge of energy supply is defined as one of the three main goals of the EU’s energy policy, the focus of this brief will be on the issue areas that may affect the EU’s relations with the main suppliers of energy.

The Norwegian Energy Security Debate : Domestic and International Dimensions

Russia’s External Energy Strategy: Opportunities and Challenges until 2030

Russian Energy in a Changing World: What is the Outlook for the Hydrocarbons Superpower

For a long time Russia’s position as a key global energy player has enhanced Moscow’s international economic and political influence whilst causing concern amongst other states fearful of becoming too dependent on Russia as an energy supplier. The Global Financial Crisis shook this established image of Russia as an indispensable energy superpower, immune to negative external influences and revealed the full extent of Russia’s dependence on oil and gas for economic and political influence. This led to calls from within the country for a new approach where energy resources were no longer regarded wholly as an asset, but also a potential curse resulting in an over reliance on one sector thwarting modernization of the economy and the country as a whole. In this fascinating and timely volume leading Russian and Western scholars examine various aspects of Russian energy policy and the opportunities and constraints that influence the choices made by the country’s energy decision makers. Contributors focus on Russia’s energy relations with the rest of the world alongside internal debates about the need for diversification and modernisation in a changing economy, country and world system where overdependence on energy commodities has become a key concern for customer and supplier alike.

Gazprom vs. other Russian gas producers: The evolution of the Russian gas sector

Rosneft’s offshore partnerships: the re-opening of the Russian petroleum frontier?

During an intense period of only 14 months, from June 2010 to August 2011, six major cooperation agreements between oil companies were announced in Russia. Almost all of these partnerships involved offshore projects, with an international oil company as one of the partners and Rosneft as the other. The agreements were concentrated along Russia's Arctic petroleum frontier, and the three that survived the longest involved oil or gas extraction in the Arctic. This article analyses and compares the contents and contexts of the agreements, to ascertain what they have to tell about access for international companies to Russia's offshore petroleum resources and the influence of competing Russian political actors over the country's petroleum sector. The article argues that the new partnerships did represent an intention to open up the Russian continental shelf, and that the agreements were driven and shaped by a series of needs: to secure foreign capital and competence, to reduce exploration risk, to lobby for a better tax framework, to show the government that necessary action was being taken to launch exploration activities, to improve Rosneft's image abroad, and either to avert or prepare for future privatisation of state companies such as Rosneft.

Gas, Price, and Russia's Modernization

Strategie energetyczne Rosji i Norwegii: podobieństwa i różnice (Energy strategies of Russia and Norway: similarities and differences)

Russian External Energy Strategy: Opportunities and Constraints

Natural Gas and CO2 Price Variation: Impact on the Relative Cost-Efficiency of LNG and Pipelines

Challenges to Russia's post-Rao UES energy paradigm: a window of opportunity for sustainable market development

Subsidised Energy and Hesitant Elites in Russia

Nord Stream: Globalization in the Pipeline

Russlands eksterne energistrategi : utfordringer og muligheter

Pricing Pain: Social Discontent and Political Willpower in Russia's Gas Sector

La politique énergétique de la Russie en Arctique

Kooperation statt Konfrontation: Štokman, Jamal und Russlands Energiepolitik in der Arktis

Close Encounters: Russian Policymaking and International Oil Companies

A limited toolbox: Explaining the constraints on Russia’s foreign energy policy

Russia and the Formation of a Gas Cartel

Upstream Opportunities in Russia and Central Asia

The Surge in Unconventional Gas: Implications for Russian Export Strategies

New Narratives on Renewable Energy Policy

Caspian Energy Politics

Caspian Energy Politics analyses the role of oil and gas in the development of the three main petroleum exporters in the Caspian region - Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan - and how energy resources influence interactions with semi-authoritarian Russia and China. Due to volatile commodity prices and competition for the resources in and around the Caspian Sea, the governments of these petroleum-exporters face a series of difficult decisions. These governments have sought to balance short-term incentives to spend oil revenues as a means to maintain power against the need for a long-term strategy for managing these assets, choices which have further implications for how these countries align themselves internationally. By illuminating important linkages between domestic and international dynamics in these states, the book provides a fresh perspective on energy politics and the impact of petroleum on the development of the Caspian petroleum producers. Expert contributors from Central Asia and the South Caucasus and international scholars provide context-specific insights into the incentives affecting decision-makers that can provide a foundation for strategies to help the countries in the region overcome the negative effects of reliance on oil and gas. As such, the book will be a valuable tool for business actors seeking to understand the role of Chinese and Russian companies in the region, as well as local and international policymakers and non-governmental organisations.

The South Stream versus Nabucco Pipeline Race: Geopolitical and Economic (Ir)rationales and Political Stakes in Mega-projects

Reducing Energy Subsidies in China, India and Russia: Dilemmas for Decision Makers

Russia's Arctic energy policy

The Siberian Curse: A Blessing in Disguise for Renewable Energy?

The Caspian Sea Region towards 2025

The Caspian Sea and the lands around it are emerging again as a focus region in global affairs. With security of energy supply high on the international agenda, and with fears of resource shortages re-surfacing, the countries of the Caspian region are stepping onto the global stage, claiming for themselves new roles as providers of resources to the world. However, the new-found strength and self-confidence of the rulers of these countries are built on uncertain ground. How will a temporary – or longer-term – global recession affect these recently independent countries? How will climate change influence them – and will global climate policy alter the value of their massive hydrocarbon reserves? In some of these countries, there have been domestic armed conflicts or conflicts with neighbouring states – could hostilities erupt again? And what about the major powers in the neighbourhood? Who will gain influence, and who will lose – or will geopolitical games simply serve to destabilize matters? In three scenarios for the Caspian Sea region in 2025 this book tries to suggest possible futures for the countries around the Caspian Sea. The futures are shaped in a complex interplay with global events, with other powers and with a range of forces within the region itself. The main forces shaping the region will be the market for natural resources and their impact on regional economies, political and cultural forces of change within the region and each of the countries, as well as the dominance and influence of great powers.

Subsidies for fossil fuels and climate change: a comparative perspective

Strategic decision making in Russian energy sector: The Case of Nord Stream

Russian Renewable Energy: The Potential for International Cooperation

Vietnam's solar and wind power success: Policy implications for the other ASEAN countries

Denne studien analyserer hvilke faktorer som har bidratt til den raske veksten i sol- og vindkraft i Vietnam og hva de andre ASEAN-landene kan lære av Vietnams erfaring. Studien viser at utbyggingskostnader, trygghet for investeringer og utbygging av kraftnettet er viktige for å oppnå rask utbygging av fornybar kraft i Sydøst-Asia.

Vietnam: Six Ways to Keep Up the Renewable Energy Investment Success

Vietnam is one of the most attractive destinations for renewable energy investment in ASEAN. In 2018, the country attracted USD 5.2 billion. In 2019, the share of renewable energy in the energy mix was 9%, thus already exceeding the 7% target set for 2020. If Vietnam is to continue its success and compete globally for investment in renewable energy, it will need to further develop its investment climate. The competition is heating up in this area, and an increasing number of countries have similar conditions and frameworks for renewable energy investment. Therefore, every improvement may help boost a market’s relative attractiveness. We propose six actions that can further enhance the attractiveness of Vietnam’s renewable energy sector for investment from both domestic and international investors: prioritise renewable energy in the governance system; streamline the regulatory framework; facilitate market entry for investors; improve transparency and communication about the investment regime; improve grid expansion planning; join IRENA to further build the capacity for renewable energy governance.

Funding flows for climate change research on Africa: Where do they come from and where do they go?

Afrikanske land har kun forårsaket en svært liten del av globale drivhusgassutslipp, men kommer til å bli rammet hardere av konsekvensene av klimaendring enn andre deler av verden. Denne ubalansen er et av flere etiske problemer knyttet til klimaendring og aktualiserer spørsmål om hvem som skal skaffe midler til klimaforskning på Afrika samt hvem og hvilke temaer de skal gå til. Denne artikkelen analyserer en database med forskningsbevilgninger fra 521 organisasjoner rundt omkring i verden verdt totalt 1.51 billioner USD fra perioden 1990-2020.

EUs grønne giv – implikasjoner for norsk europapolitikk

EU lanserte mot slutten av 2019 European Green Deal. Dette er en klimastrategi for å nå målene i Parisavtalen, men også en økonomisk vekststrategi, og forventes å definere EUs sentrale prioriteringer i årene fremover. Hvordan vil dette påvirke Norge, og norsk europapolitikk? En ny NUPI-rapport, forsøker å gi svar. Norge er tett koblet til EU via EØS avtalen og en lang rekke andre avtaler, herunder Klimaavtalen som definerer rammene for norsk klimapolitikk frem mot 2030. Når EU endrer sine mål og sin virkemåte, så vil dette også påvirke Norge i stor grad. Noen sentrale observasjoner i rapporten er at: • Det er en spenning i Norge mellom energipolitikken i form av fortsatt olje- og gassproduksjon, på den ene siden, og ambisiøse klimamål, på den andre. EUs grønne giv løfter klimapolitikken til politikkens elitedivisjon og kan gjøre det mer krevende å håndtere denne spenningen. Tradisjonelle allierte i EU - som Sverige og Danmark - har f.eks et annet syn på gass som del av løsningen enn det Norge har. • Grønn Giv innebærer at EU utvikler nye regler med potensielt stor betydning for Norge, men det forvaltningsmessige oppsettet for vurdering og håndtering av nye EU regler i Norge er ikke tilpasset en slik økning i volumet på nye regler. • Grønn giv er "sektorovergripende" og trekker EU Kommisjonen i retning av større integrasjon på tvers av ulike saksfelt. Norsk forvaltning er imidlertid definert av et sektor-prinsipp. Dette innebærer en betydelig økning av behovet for koordinering på tvers av ulike departementer og etater i Norge. • Fordi Norge står utenfor EU, har Norge størst mulighet til å påvirke innretting på nye regler og tiltak tidlig i prosessen, gjennom deltakelse i ekspertgrupper i en forberedende fase. Tempoet og omfanget av nye regler som nå utarbeides gjør dette arbeidet krevende. • Grønn giv innebærer en serie med endringer som potensielt griper inn i eksisterende konfliktlinjer i norsk politikk knyttet til EØS og suverenitetsavståelse. • Det er behov for økt kunnskap og dialog mellom forvaltningen, næringslivet, akademia og sivilt samfunn om hvilke muligheter og utfordringer EUs grønne giv innebærer. Et "grønn giv forum" kan være nyttig for å sikre at ulike norske aktører utnytter de muligheter som ligger i EUs grønne giv. • Grønn giv viser at EØS avtalen har sine begrensninger som det sentrale tilkoblingspunktet til EU. En mer institusjonalisert dialog på øverste politiske nivå mellom Norge og EU vil kunne bidra til å bøte på disse utfordringene. Rapporten er finansiert av Utenriksdepartementet.

Environmental performance of foreign firms: Chinese and Japanese firms in Myanmar

Russian Grand Strategy and Energy Resources: The Asian Dimension

This chapter addresses a set of strategically important questions about the relationship between Russian strategy and the country’s energy resources. It is divided into three sections. The first presents a brief discussion of the concept of a ‘grand strategy’ and its application in the Russian context. The second examines the role of energy resources in a grand strategy in general, and in the current Russian context in particular. The final section considers the importance of Asia in the realisation of Russian energy and grand strategy. The chapter seeks to answer the following questions: • What is a grand strategy? • Does Russia have a grand strategy? • What is the connection between grand strategy and energy? • What is the role of energy resources in Russia’s grand strategy? • What is the role of Asia in Russia’s grand and energy strategy designs?

The ASEAN climate and energy paradox

Denne artikkelen ser på misforholdet mellom ASEAN-landenes store sårbarhet for klimaendringer og beskjedne innsats for å bekjempe klimaendring.

Why Choose to Cycle in a Low-Income Country?

Forskning om sykling har fokusert på i-land. Denne artikkelen tar for seg sykling i u-land og ser på hva som får folk til å sykle der og hvilke fordeler dette gir.

The Philippines: How to Leapfrog from a Complicated Renewable Energy Sector to an Attractive One

The Philippines set the target of increasing the share of renewable energy in its energy mix from 16.9% in 2019 to 26.9% by 2030. This ambitious target requires significant additional investment in renewable energy. It has been estimated that the Philippines could attract USD 20 billion in renewable energy investment through auctions between 2020 and 2030. To achieve this, the investment climate for renewables needs to be improved. Over the last few years, other ASEAN countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand have been viewed as more attractive markets by foreign investors. We propose five actions that can improve the attractiveness of Philippines’ investment climate for renewable energy and help it join the regional race for investment: prioritise renewables in the energy governance system; enforce existing regulatory and fiscal policies; raise the targets and develop an investment roadmap; facilitate market entry for renewable energy investors; build capacity for renewable energy governance.

Singapore: How to Attract More Investment in Renewable Energy?

Singapore has limited renewable energy potential due to its small surface area and the limited space available. Solar power has the greatest potential. Given the country’s limited spare land, rooftops and vertical spaces on high-rise buildings are of particular importance. Singapore set a target of producing solar energy to cover 350,000 households in 2030 that would be equivalent to 4% of the country’s current electricity demand. In 2019, solar energy accounted for less than 1% of Singapore’s total energy mix. We propose four actions to improve the investment climate for renewable energy in Singapore: develop incentive and regulatory support mechanism; consolidate solar energy governance; mobilise equity investors and lenders; specialise in the long-distance trade of renewable energy, especially in the form of hydrogen.

Unexplored resources for EU Arctic policy: Energy, oceans and space

EUs Arktis-policy fra 2016 fokuserer på klima og miljøbeskyttelse, bærekraftig utvikling og internasjonalt samarbeid. EU har fulgt opp med bidrag til forskning og internasjonalt samarbeid på disse områdene. Likevel er EUs engasjement i Arktis oversett internt. Arktis oppfattes som et marginalt område når det gjelder politisk handling. Også eksternt er EU-engasjementet her oversett. Det skorter på bredere anerkjennelse av EUs innsats og bidrag i Arktis. Forfatterne av denne kronikken hevder at EU kanskje har definert sin tilnærming til Arktis-policy – og forståelse av arktisk styring – for snevert. Arktis-policy har vært et nisjefelt i Brussel, og dette har resultert i en fokusert og jevn tilnærming, men med for få EU-aktører involvert i arktisk policy-utforming. Som en følge av dette har EU uforsvarende begrenset sin rolle i Arktis og gjort det enda vanskeligere å formulere et overbevisende narrativ om hva EU har å gjøre med og i Arktis. Forfatterne trekker frem tre bredere policy-områder som har uforløst potensial til å gi mer ballast til EU som aktør i Arktis: Energi, hav og styring av verdensrommet («space governance»).

Strategic dimension of Russian energy policy

Denne forelesningen var en del av Statkrafts forskningsdag hvor selskapets ansatte skulle få anledning til å fordype seg i forskjellige aspekter av energipolitikk. Hovedtema var å vise hvilken rolle Russlands energiressurser spiller i landets strategiske valg.

Thailand: Improving the Business Climate for Renewable Energy Investment

Thailand er ledende på fornybar energi blant ASEAN-landene. Fra 2006 til 2018 tiltrakk Thailand seg mer enn 10,7 milliarder USD i investeringer i fornybar energi. Landets kapasitet for fornybar energi utgjorde i 2019 over 60% av den totale kapasiteten i ASEAN-området. Fornybare energikilder utgjorde 15% av den thailandske energimiksen i 2018, og målet er at denne andelen skal øke til 30% i 2036. Til tross for dette stagnerte investeringene i Thailand i 2018-2019. Forfatterne av denne policy brief-en foreslår fem tiltak som kan forbedre attraktiviteten til Thailands investeringsklima både på kortere og lengre sikt: 1) Få på plass et dedikert departement for fornybar energi. 2) Utvide og forbedre regelverket. 3) Legge bedre til rette for direkte energihandel mellom energiprodusenter (peer-to-peer) 4) Bygge opp kapasitet for styring av fornybar energi.

Russian energy and grand strategy

Denne teksten presenterer opdaterte informasjon om utviklingen i den russiske energisektoren og diskuterer denne sektorens betydning i en bredere strategiske kontekst.

Brunei Darussalam: How to Build an Investment Climate for Renewable Energy?

Brunei Darussalam has yet to make major progress in renewable energy and become an attractive destination for investors. Only 0.05% of Brunei’s electricity came from renewable energy sources, while 99.95% was based on fossil fuels. In 2014, the country set a renewable energy target of 10% in the power generation mix by 2035. To reach the target, it needs to increase the share of renewables by 0.66% every year from 2020 to 2035. The country still needs to adopt a regulatory regime to scale up the development of renewable energy, particularly solar energy, which is more abundant than wind energy. We propose five actions to build the investment climate for renewable energy in Brunei Darussalam: prioritise renewable energy in the governance system; adopt and implement key legislation; mobilise domestic investors; improve market entry for foreign investors.

Russian Oil Companies in an Evolving World: The Challenge of Change

Denne boken handler om de fem største oljeselskapene i Russland og hvordan de håndterer endring.

Energy democracy as a process, an outcome and a goal: A conceptual review

Denne artikkelen gir oversikt over de forskjellige måtene energidemokrati er blitt konseptualisert på.

Cambodia: Five Actions to Improve the Business Climate for Renewable Energy Investment

Cambodia has not attracted significant investment in renewable energy until mid-2020 and, unlike other ASEAN countries, has not set exact renewable energy targets. Despite this, the country is viewed as a model to learn from for other ASEAN countries implementing solar power auctions. In order to keep up this momentum and attract more investment, Cambodia needs to address a number of persistent gaps in its investment climate. We propose five actions that may have strong immediate benefits and make Cambodia’s business climate for renewable energy more attractive: prioritise renewables in the energy governance system; request support from IRENA for capacity building; adopt targets and develop a regulatory framework; enhance project bankability; improve market entry for foreign investors.

Indonesia: How to Boost Investment in Renewable Energy

Indonesia, the largest country in Southeast Asia, has considerable renewable energy potential. However, this potential remains largely underexploited. Fossil fuel subsidies are a major obstacle to the deployment of renewable energy on a large scale. Investment in renewable energy is limited compared to some regional peers. For instance, Vietnam attracted USD 5.2 billion of investment in renewables in 2018, while Indonesia drew only USD 0.8 billion. We propose six actions that could help Indonesia accelerate the expansion of renewables: remove subsidies for fossil fuels; establish a ministry of renewable energy; prioritise renewables in the regulatory framework; improve and streamline grid management; mobilise domestic banks to support renewable energy; prioritise market entry for investors.

Lao PDR: How to Attract More Investment in Small-Scale Renewable Energy?

Lao PDR adopted the Renewable Energy Development Strategy in 2011 and set a target of 30% small-scale renewables in the energy mix by 2025. The country relies heavily on large hydropower in electricity production and is an attractive investment destination for hydropower. At the same time, Lao PDR has also significant small-scale hydro and solar power potential. We propose five actions that can improve the investment climate in Lao PDR for small-scale hydropower, solar and wind energy: establish an autonomous government agency for renewables; join IRENA and build capacity for renewable energy governance; adopt a feed-in tariff and build a robust regulatory framework; develop a roadmap for small-scale renewable energy; facilitate market entry for investors.

Malaysia: How to Scale Up Investment in Renewable Energy

Malaysia set a target of 20% renewables in the energy mix by 2025, an 18% increase from the 2% it had in 2018. One of the planned measures is the development of large-scale solar power. To reach the target, it will be necessary to attract a total of USD 8 billion of renewable energy investment during this period. Considering the fact that Malaysia attracted only USD 2.5 billion from 2006 to 2018, the country will need to attract USD 1.3 billion on average every year from 2019. To achieve this, it will need to undertake serious reform measures to improve the investment climate for renewables and conditions for renewable energy deployment. Given the ever-increasing global competition for renewable energy investment, the rapid implementation of such reforms becomes an imperative. This in turn requires strong governance. We propose five actions that can improve the attractiveness of Malaysia’s investment climate for renewable energy to 2025 and beyond: reform energy governance in favour of renewable energy; ensure streamlined management of the regulatory framework for renewable energy; develop a framework for easier grid connection and use; enhance awareness-raising measures for investors; make market entry easy and attractive.

Myanmar: How to Become an Attractive Destination for Renewable Energy Investment?

Myanmar is endowed with abundant renewable energy resources, and its solar potential is the greatest in the Greater Mekong Subregion – yet, this potential remains largely untapped. The country’s 50% electrification rate remains the lowest in ASEAN, and the government plans to electrify the entire country by 2030. The share of renewable energy in the energy mix is expected to rise from less than 1% in 2020 to 12% in 2025. In addition to expanding electricity access, renewable energy could also stimulate much-needed employment and economic growth in Myanmar. We propose five actions that can improve the investment climate in Myanmar for renewable energy investment: strengthen renewable energy governance; join IRENA and intensify capacity building; adopt a feed-in tariff or auction mechanism; build a regulatory framework for renewable energy; simplify the business environment for investors.

Norway as an anergy actor in Europe and in the Baltic Sea region

Kort innlegg om Norges rolle som energiaktør i Europa og i Østersjoregionen på en konferanse organisert av Det sentraleuropeiske instituttet i Lublin, Poland, on-line

The missallocation of climate research funding

The window of opportunity for mitigating climate change is narrow. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will require rapid and deep alteration of attitudes, norms, incentives, and politics. Some of the key climate-change and energy transition puzzles are therefore in the realm of the social sciences. However, these are precisely the fields that receive least funding for climate-related research. This article analyzes a new dataset of research grants from 333 donors around the world spanning 4.3 million awards with a cumulative value of USD 1.3 trillion from 1950 to 2021. Between 1990 and 2018, the natural and technical sciences received 770% more funding than the social sciences for research on issues related to climate change. Only 0.12% of all research funding was spent on the social science of climate mitigation.

The geopolitics of renewables: New board, new game

This policy perspective sums up the main input of four members of the Research Panel for IRENA's Global Commission on the Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation. The geographic and technical characteristics of renewable energy systems are fundamentally different from those of coal, oil, and natural gas. This has implications for interstate energy relations and will require early attention if states are to exploit opportunities and address challenges. We point to six clusters of renewables' geopolitical implications that will manifest themselves over different time horizons. Overall, a generally positive disruption is foreseen, but also one that raises new energy security challenges. Moreover, while renewables will eventually render energy relations more horizontal and polycentric, achieving a smooth transition will not be easy. Renewables alter arenas of energy interaction, transforming markets and shifting trade partners, and reshape patterns of cooperation and conflict among countries. One possible outcome is a world of continental-sized grid communities made up of prosumer countries that continuously strategize between secure domestic production and cheap imports. Political action is required to manage, inter alia, industrial competition, stranded assets, availability of electricity and storage capacity, critical materials, and rivalry over ownership of key infrastructure assets.

Russian Renewable Energy: Regulations and outcomes

This chapter reviews the development of the legal framework for renewable energy in Russia and discusses the current state of renewable energy in the country. The Russian support scheme for renewable energy is elaborated in detail for both the wholesale and retail energy markets, and the outcomes of the policy are assessed based on the current state of renewable energy in Russia.

The new oil? The geopolitics and international governance of hydrogen

While most hydrogen research focuses on the technical and cost hurdles to a full-scale hydrogen economy, little consideration has been given to the geopolitical drivers and consequences of hydrogen developments. The technologies and infrastructures underpinning a hydrogen economy can take markedly different forms, and the choice over which pathway to take is the object of competition between different stakeholders and countries. Over time, cross-border maritime trade in hydrogen has the potential to fundamentally redraw the geography of global energy trade, create a new class of energy exporters, and reshape geopolitical relations and alliances between countries. International governance and investments to scale up hydrogen value chains could reduce the risk of market fragmentation, carbon lock-in, and intensified geo-economic rivalry.

Renewable energy and geopolitics: A review

Denne artikkelen gir oversikt over faglitteraturen om fornybar energi og geopolitikk. Den finner at litteraturen strekker seg bakover helt til 1970-tallet. Følgende konklusjoner distillieres fra litteraturen: fornybar energi har mange fordeler over fossil energi for internasjonal sikkerhet og fred; men fornybar energi øker risikoen for spenning knyttet til kritiske materialer og kybersikkerhet; tidligere olje- og gasseksportører vil være de største taperne fra en overgang til fornybar energi.

The GeGaLo index: Geopolitical gains and losses after energy transition

This article presents the GeGaLo index of geopolitical gains and losses that 156 countries may experience after a full-scale transition to renewable energy. The following indicators are considered for inclusion in the index: fossil fuel production, fossil fuel reserves, renewable energy resources, governance, and conflict. Some of these represent potential gains; some represent losses; and some the capacity of countries to handle changes in geopolitical strength. Five alternative versions of the index are developed to work out the optimal design. First, the energy resource indicators are combined with equal weights to create two simple versions of the index. Next, governance and conflict indicators are included to create three more complex versions of the index. The index provides useful pointers for strategic energy and foreign policy choices: geopolitical power will be more evenly distributed after an energy transition; Iceland will gain most; Russia may be one of the main holders of stranded geopolitical assets; China and the USA will lose more geopolitically than foreseen by other analyses. The index also indicates a lack of emphasis in parts of the literature on space for renewable energy infrastructure and on domestically sourced coal for the current strength of countries such as China and the United States.

Renewable Energy Policies of the Central Asian Countries

This data article surveys the government policies in support of renewable energy in the five Central Asian republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It begins by providing general information and key energy statistics for these countries. It then presents comparative data on their regulatory policies, fiscal incentives, and public financing policies. The data were collected from government institutions of the Central Asian states, official national statistics, media reports, and international organizations.

Wind Power Potential of the Central Asian Countries

This data article surveys the wind energy potential of the five Central Asian countries; Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The dataset presents the theoretical wind power supply capacity in the region as well as existing wind power installations.

Solar Power Potential of the Central Asian Countries

This data compilation surveys the solar energy potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It also provides data on installed and planned solar power capacity in these countries.

Hydropower Potential of the Central Asian Countries

This data article surveys the hydropower potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The dataset presents the theoretical hydropower supply capacity of all the river basins of Central Asia. It was prepared using data from national and international sources, and it provides information on installed small and medium hydropower capacities and planned projects in the above-mentioned countries.

BRI in Central Asia: Energy Connectivity Projects

One of the strategic objectives of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central Asia is to provide China with alternative import/export and energy supply routes. This data article shows that the presentation and coverage of BRI projects varies considerably from country to country. The largest number of BRI projects in Central Asia are implemented in Kazakhstan and are in the oil and gas sector. By contrast, Turkmenistan is implementing only a few Chinese energy projects, though they are large-scale and its sum of investment is the second-largest of the Central Asian states.

BRI in Central Asia: Mineral and Petroleum Exploration, Extraction and Processing Projects

Mineral resources is the sector that receives most Chinese investment in Central Asia. China and its Central Asian partners pursue both strategic and commercial goals by promoting projects in the minerals sector. Kazakhstan hosts the largest number of projects and receives the largest amount of Chinese investment. The second largest recipient of financing is Turkmenistan, where several big projects are implemented.

Introduction: The EU and the Changing (Geo)Politics of Energy in Europe

This introductory chapter has three purposes. First, it presents the background for this volume originating in a research project on European integration funded by the Research Council of Norway (RCN). Second, it explains why EU energy policy in this context deserves closer scrutiny looking at energy relationships between the EU and external suppliers of energy and the EU and member states. Finally, this chapter gives an overview of the content of this book and explains rationales for the choice of cases presenting how the EU projects its power, how external suppliers Norway, Russia, Algeria and LNG providers have responded and how the member states Germany, Poland and the three Baltic countries interact with the EU when implementing their energy policies.

Kazakhstan: Civil Society and Natural Resource Policy in Kazakhstan

In Kazakhstan, civil society is held back and has had a limited role in the management of the petroleum sector. As this chapter notes, civil society has had little experience of promoting its own interests vis-à-vis the state, and public discussion of natural resource issues has been mainly government-driven. The fact that Kazakhstan made a notable step forward—from being a collapsing socialist economy in the 1990s to becoming a regional economic player with improved social and economic performance—has helped to legitimize non-transparent natural resource policies. As long as the socio-economic situation continues to improve or remains stable, the non-transparent management of natural resources is likely to be accepted by the population, which, like the Russian population, puts a premium on stability. The relative passivity of civil society has been compensated by Kazakhstan’s exposure to international initiatives and organizations such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and numerous UN agencies. As in Azerbaijan, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) has provided a platform for some civil society engagement with industry and government.

The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy

For a century, the geopolitics of energy has been synonymous with the geopolitics of oil and gas. However, geopolitics and the global energy economy are both changing. The international order predominant since the end of World War II faces mounting challenges. At the same time, renewable energy is growing rapidly. Nevertheless, the geopolitics of renewable energy has received relatively little attention, especially when considering the far-reaching consequences of a global shift to renewable energy. The paper starts with a discussion of seven renewable energy scenarios for the coming decades: the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2016, the EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2016, IRENA’s REmap 2016, Bloomberg’s New Energy Outlook 2016, BP’s Energy Outlook 2016, Exxon-Mobil’s Outlook for Energy 2016 and the joint IEA and IRENA G20 de-carbonization scenario. The paper then discusses seven mechanisms through which renewables could shape geopolitics: Critical materials supply chains, technology and finance, new resource curse, electric grids, reduced oil and gas demand, avoided climate change, and sustainable energy access.

Myanmars Attractiveness for Investment in the Energy Sector: A Comparative International Perspective

This report examines the strengths and weaknesses of Myanmar’s business climate in the petroleum and renewable energy sectors: how it compares with other countries, especially in ASEAN; what matters to foreign investors; and how this situation can be improved. Not resting on one’s (new) laurels: The recent international interest in Myanmar may prove counterproductive for the country’s investment climate, if this upsurge in interest induces the government to slow down in its reform efforts. When the novelty of Myanmar wears off, that may become a problem. Indeed, possible signs of such a slowdown can be observed already. According to official data, FDI in Myanmar decreased significantly in the first four months of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. Investors were increasingly cautious and worried about the slow pace of reform, delays in establishing a panel to approve new investment projects and the lack of clarity on the country’s new economic development strategy (DVB, 2016). This highlights the importance of working constantly to improve the investment climate and staying in close contact with investors, keeping them informed about developments. Challenges common to the petroleum and renewables sectors: Lack of data and information for market entry; fragmented institutional and regulatory framework; low levels of electricity access and digitalization; low international oil prices. Challenges in the petroleum sector: Limited supply-industry infrastructure and lack of local engineers; MOGE petroleum sector monopolization and conflicts of interest; limited geological data; complicated taxation; weak government–business communication; challenges in finding local partners; time-consuming licensing procedures; paper-based communication and lack of e-government; production-sharing agreements biased towards participation of large oil companies, excluding smaller ones; frequent changes in legislation; closed downstream market. Challenges in the renewable energy sector: No national target or legislation on renewable energy; no dedicated public agency regulating the sector; lack of business associations; subsidies for grid electricity generated from fossil fuels disadvantage off-grid renewables; access to suitable land; complex mountainous terrain and protected areas as well as political instability in these areas; underdeveloped grid system for large-scale production; lack of data on the renewable-energy resource potential; limited infrastructure for technical support and maintenance; high cost of installing solar panels and wind turbines; disintegrated biofuel production and supply markets; lack of local specialists; no taxation system for renewables; security risks in conflict-prone Kachin, Rakhine and Shan states. Opportunities in the petroleum and renewable energy sectors: Government commitment to reform; advantageous location as part of the Greater Mekong Subregion and ASEAN, close to the Chinese and Indian markets; significant resource base, especially natural gas, hydropower and bioenergy; rapidly rising energy demand in Myanmar and neighbouring countries; high demand for investment in refineries, oil terminals, oil barges and petrol stations; opportunities in retail business; new petroleum and renewable energy laws are underway; abundant semi-skilled labour, and low cost of unskilled labour; low levels of corruption and criminality. Initially, companies may perceive the business climate as unpredictable, but, having entered the market, and having learned and adapted to local conditions, companies experience greater predictability. Opportunities in the petroleum sector: Relatively transparent tender system; equal treatment of investors; government experience and capacity; market maturity. Myanmar’s strategic location, with rapidly rising energy demand among hundreds of millions of people in the neighbouring countries and low transportation costs (especially for gas delivery to China, India and Thailand), represents an opportunity to foreign investors. Opportunities in the renewable energy sector: Latecomer advantage; low level of electrification increases cost advantage of off-grid electrification; support from international donors; strong civil society actors are promoting renewable energy development.

The Hunter Becomes the Hunted: Gazprom Encounters EU Regulation

This book contributes to an ongoing debate about the EU as a global actor, the organization’s ability to speak with one voice in energy affairs, and the external dimension of the regulatory state. Investigating whether the Energy Union amounts to a fundamental shift towards Europe's new 'Liberal Mercantilism', it gathers high-level contributors from academia and the policy world to shed light on the changing nature of the EU's use of power in one of its most crucial policy fields. It argues that the Energy Union epitomizes a change in the EU’s approach to managing its economic power. Whilst the EU remains committed to a liberal approach to international political economy, it seems ready to promote regulation for the purpose of augmenting its own power at the expense of others, notably Russia. This edited collection will appeal to political scientists, economists and energy experts.

The Energy Union and Security-of-Gas-Supply

This paper discusses and contrasts the proposals for an Energy Union in the European Union and its impact on security-of-gas-supply. Based on an examination of historical East-West gas trade and by revisiting energy security concepts, the paper analyzes how problems with dependency on energy imports can be reduced. The paper discusses how the positions of Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC), where security challenges are especially evident, and the positions of countries in Western Europe, where they are less acute, interact and conflicts in making a common energy security policy as part of the Energy Union. The paper argues that the mainly confederative structure of the EU, and diverging national situations, make it difficult to unify positions into an effective common energy policy. However, with the CEEC in the EU, the EU is also changing, and an increased focus on energy security may be accepted. Extended interconnectedness within and to the CEEC appears to be the central issue that would mitigate, albeit not solve, contemporary security-of-gas-supply problems. As it would also bring the internal energy market closer to reality, it could in addition help the Energy Union to become a unifying project merging the interests in the East and the West despite their different security-of-gas supply concerns with Russian gas.

Energy: The Missing Link in Globalization

Energy resources are transported long distances and create powerful interlinkages between countries. Energy thus contributes to the globalization of the world, but has received little attention in the globalization literature. This article hypothesizes that energy globalization is growing and accelerating. The hypothesis is tested by developing an index to measure changes in the extent of energy globalization during the 20-year period from 1992 to 2011. The following sub-indicators are included in the index: number of energy trade relationships, average distance of energy trade relationships, and energy dependency of the countries in the world. The development of the index encounters a number of conceptual and methodological challenges related to globalization, which, it turns out, have not been addressed properly in the broader literature. Clarification of these issues can help improve the analysis of globalization.