Publikasjoner
Oljefondet og utenrikspolitikken: Gorillaen i rommet
Oljefondet reiser en rekke utenrikspolitiske spørsmål. Noen hevder at Oljefondet bør brukes som et virkemiddel for å fremme norske utenrikspolitiske interesser. Det er ikke mitt poeng. Jeg tror det er gode grunner å unngå en utvikling i den retning. Historien har vist at organiseringen av Oljefondet så langt har gitt gode resultater og det kan være risikabelt å gjøre en slik kobling. Samtidig mener jeg det er direkte uklokt, for både Oljefondet og utenrikspolitikken, å lukke øynene for de mange direkte, og indirekte, utenrikspolitiske funksjonene og virkningene som Oljefondet allerede i dag har og vil få i tiden fremover. Det er derfor på høy tid at vi undersøker nærmere hvordan og i hvilken grad Oljefondet og Norges finansielle investeringer former Norges internasjonale relasjoner, og på sikt også Norges interesser i utenrikspolitikken? Hvordan påvirker Oljefondet hvilke partnere, allianser og internasjonale grupperinger Norge inngår i, og hvordan påvirker Oljefondet Norges status og omdømme i det internasjonale samfunn? Med et stadig større Oljefond reises også spørsmålet om å sikre koherens mellom Oljefondets investeringer og andre sider ved den norske utenrikspolitikken. Selv om ikke Oljefondet skal være et virkemiddel for norsk utenrikspolitikk, bør vi kanskje snu om på forholdet, og, satt på spissen, spørre hvilken utenrikspolitikk Norge skal føre for å ivareta Oljefondets interesser. I denne artikkelen skal jeg bare kort belyse noen sider av forholdet mellom Oljefondet og norsk utenrikspolitikk. Tematikken er stor, og artikkelen er ingenlunde uttømmende, men jeg vil vise hvordan Oljefondet på ulike måter påvirker sentrale utenrikspolitiske størrelser, som Norges nasjonale interesser og posisjoner, ressurser, makt, allianser, forventninger, representasjon, status og koherens.
Market-specific Sunk Export Costs: The Impact of Learning and Spillovers
Firms may face sunk costs when entering an export market. Previous studies have focused on global or country-specific sunk export costs. This study analyses the importance of market-specific sunk export costs (defining ‘market’ as a product–country combination). We also study how market-specific export costs can be affected by various kinds of learning and spillover effects. We use firm-level panel data for Norwegian seafood exports distributed on products and countries. The results lend support to the hypothesis of market-specific sunk costs. We also find evidence of learning and spillover effects, particularly within the same product group.
The Eco-Island Trap: Climate Change Mitigation and Conspicuous Sustainability
Governance of climate change adaptation on Small Island Developing States (SIDS)
The Energy Union and Security-of-Gas-Supply
This paper discusses and contrasts the proposals for an Energy Union in the European Union and its impact on security-of-gas-supply. Based on an examination of historical East-West gas trade and by revisiting energy security concepts, the paper analyzes how problems with dependency on energy imports can be reduced. The paper discusses how the positions of Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC), where security challenges are especially evident, and the positions of countries in Western Europe, where they are less acute, interact and conflicts in making a common energy security policy as part of the Energy Union. The paper argues that the mainly confederative structure of the EU, and diverging national situations, make it difficult to unify positions into an effective common energy policy. However, with the CEEC in the EU, the EU is also changing, and an increased focus on energy security may be accepted. Extended interconnectedness within and to the CEEC appears to be the central issue that would mitigate, albeit not solve, contemporary security-of-gas-supply problems. As it would also bring the internal energy market closer to reality, it could in addition help the Energy Union to become a unifying project merging the interests in the East and the West despite their different security-of-gas supply concerns with Russian gas.
Lifting the Fog of War? Opportunities and Challenges of Drones in UN Peace Operations
While the military use of drones has been the subject of much scrutiny, the use of drones for humanitarian purposes has so far received little attention. As the starting point for this study, it is argued that the prospect of using drones for humanitarian and other life-saving activities has produced an alternative discourse on drones, dedicated to developing and publicizing the endless possibilities that drones have for "doing good". Furthermore, it is suggested that the Good Drone narrative has been appropriated back into the drone warfare discourse, as a strategy to make war "more human". This book explores the role of the Good Drone as an organizing narrative for political projects, technology development and humanitarian action. Its contribution to the debate is to take stock of the multiple logics and rationales according to which drones are "good", with a primary objective to initiate a critical conversation about the political currency of "good". This study recognizes the many possibilities for the use of drones and takes these possibilities seriously by critically examining the difference the drones' functionalities can make, but also what difference the presence of drones themselves – as unmanned and flying objects – make. Discussed and analysed are the implications for the drone industry, user communities, and the areas of crisis where drones are deployed.
China's New Development Bank and Infrastructure-led Growth
In view of China’s recent launch of several new development banks (AIIB, OBOR, NDB) with a central focus on infrastructure, this NUPI Brief takes a look at how China’s infrastructure projects have fared both at home and abroad in the past. It asks the question: Does economic growth, boosted by infrastructure investment, necessarily benefit development? Admitting that infrastructure has played a crucial role in China’s development, as well as contributed to the changes in other developing countries, this brief cautions against several potential economic risks. To be more specific, three issues are highlighted: first, low usage and low profitability; second, debt and broken contracts; third, favouritism towards state-owned companies.