Publikasjoner
United Nations Stabilization Operations: Chapter Seven and a Half
The UN Security Council has in recent years included the term ‘stabilization’ in the name of the operations deployed to Haiti, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali and Central African Republic. But, are they stabilization operations? Although the concept has become increasingly popular in the UN context, it seems to denote everything from robust military action to early peacebuilding activities, and for this reason the UN high-level independent panel on peace operations in 2015 recommended to avoid the concept until it was further clarified. To contribute to this clarification, the article follows two main lines of inquiry—first it unpacks the different meanings of stabilization in UN peace operations by drawing upon the experiences of current UN stabilization missions such as MONUSCO in the DRC and MINUSMA in Mali. Based on this inquiry, it argues that what we are witnessing is cognitive slippage—where a broad range of unrelated activities are gathered under the same concept as a discursive tool to get financial and political support from Western partners. Second, the article ventures on to examine how the center of gravity of international interventions has moved on to a prevalence of ad-hoc coalitions undertaking counterterrorism operations, and what impact this has on UN peace operations, and in particular the understanding of stabilization in these. It argues that these missions could be termed Chapter seven and a half operations as they combine UN peace operations under Chapter VII mandates with the inclusion of regional ad hoc coalitions of the willing.
Lebanese Sunni Islamism: A Post-Election Review
This research note analyses the internal and external factors that led to Al-Jama‘a al-Islamiyya‘s loss of its only parliamentary seat in 2018. Al-Jama‘a al-Islamiyya is the Lebanese branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Through this case, the author assesses the status of Lebanon’s Sunni community and the electoral fortunes of regional Muslim Brotherhood organizations more generally. The main external factors leading to Al-Jama‘a al-Islamiyya’s electoral decline included the abandonment by the Future Movement, the law on proportional representation, potential regional involvement in the Lebanese elections and the rise of pro-Hezbollah Sunni MPs like those belonging to al-Ahbash. The internal challenges faced by Al-Jama‘a al-Islamiyya, on the other hand, include its strategic dilemma on how to position itself in the sectarianized 'New Middle East' after the Arab uprisings, as well as its organizational structure and its inability to properly convince its supporters of the last-minute alliance with the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). This note also analyses the fate of Lebanon’s Salafis and their absence from the elections, a result of the security pressures they face following their political support of the Islamist armed opposition in neighboring Syria. Furthermore, the research note explores the trajectory of the Al Masharee’ Association known as Al-Ahbash which, by returning to parliament in 2018, presented a fatal blow to the electoral hopes of Lebanon’s Sunni Islamists.
BRI in Central Asia: People-to-People Projects
Along with financing hard infrastructure projects, Beijing also promotes soft power projects in the form of people-to-people initiatives. However, such projects are low priority within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central Asia. The Confucius Institutes, which appear to be an important vehicle for Chinese soft power in the region, are not directly linked to BRI and were launched before and independently of BRI.
BRI in Central Asia: Agriculture and Food Projects
This data article looks at Chinese investment in agriculture and food production in Central Asia. It shows that the agricultural sector projects have low priority within the Belt and Road Initiative. Kazakhstan is the biggest recipient of Chinese investment in agriculture and food projects in Central Asia.
BRI in Central Asia: Finance and IT Projects
China and its Central Asian counterparts pursue finance and IT projects for both commercial and strategic reasons. As this data article shows, transparency is limited and exact information on the size of their investments is only partly available. In the financial sector, China cooperates most closely with Kazakhstan among the Central Asian countries.
BRI in Central Asia: Industrial Projects
China’s investment in the industrial sectors of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has been on the rise since the 1990s. However, this data article shows the recent expansion of Chinese investment also in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Thus, China has expanded its engagement in the development of local industries in larger countries as well. The projects in Kazakhstan are the largest in terms of the number and size of investments. China has substantially increased the number of industrial projects in Uzbekistan, yet the evidence shows that the costs of the projects are small in scale.
BRI in Central Asia: Mineral and Petroleum Exploration, Extraction and Processing Projects
Mineral resources is the sector that receives most Chinese investment in Central Asia. China and its Central Asian partners pursue both strategic and commercial goals by promoting projects in the minerals sector. Kazakhstan hosts the largest number of projects and receives the largest amount of Chinese investment. The second largest recipient of financing is Turkmenistan, where several big projects are implemented.
BRI in Central Asia: Energy Connectivity Projects
One of the strategic objectives of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central Asia is to provide China with alternative import/export and energy supply routes. This data article shows that the presentation and coverage of BRI projects varies considerably from country to country. The largest number of BRI projects in Central Asia are implemented in Kazakhstan and are in the oil and gas sector. By contrast, Turkmenistan is implementing only a few Chinese energy projects, though they are large-scale and its sum of investment is the second-largest of the Central Asian states.
BRI in Central Asia: Rail and Road Connectivity Projects
This data article shows that most of the rail and road projects in which the Chinese are involved in Central Asia are implemented within the territories of individual countries and thus are still poorly linked with each other. However, these internal transport routes are expected to eventually form the basis of a new cross-regional network within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Smaller scale road construction and rehabilitation projects create linkages connecting China across Central Asia to South Asia, Turkey, Europe, and the Middle East.
BRI in Central Asia: Overview of Chinese Projects
This data article summarises the analysis of 261 Chinese projects in Central Asia. The findings indicate that trade promotion and industrial development are the sectors where there is most BRI-related activity in Central Asia. The total number of projects in these areas approximates the number of projects in all other areas combined. These sectors also receive most investment. In terms of the number of implemented projects, roads is the second key sector, followed by energy. However, due to larger project sizes, energy receives more funds than roads. The majority of Chinese projects in Central Asia are bilateral.