Trump, Global Order, and the Liberal West
Breakfast seminar: India's rise and great power competition
India is the world’s largest democracy, has high economic growth, and is one of very few countries that cooperates with both Russia and the US. How does India balance between Russia, China and the US?
Topos of threat and metapolitics in Russia’s securitisation of NATO post-Crimea
This article makes a twofold contribution on the relationship between self/other securitisation, ambiguous threat constructions, and anxiety at the intersection of Securitisation Theory (ST) and Ontological Security Studies (OSS). First, we develop the concept topos of threat (TT) as a potent linguistic anchor in securitisation processes. TTs depict an entire self/other threat situation that warrants escape, serving identity needs while staying flexible and ambiguous. However, their frequent rhetorical deployment can blur the threat construction and increase anxiety: this challenges the classical scholarly assumption that antagonism necessarily alleviates anxiety. Second, we theorise metapolitics as an anxiety mediation strategy. Metapolitics is a mode of interpretation – a relentless analysis of surface clues to expose a deceptive, powerful adversary – which in the final event fails to alleviate anxiety. The dual practice of nurturing topoi of threat and metapolitics drives conflict because it sets in motion a vicious securitisation spiral that entrenches rigid patterns of self/other representation and fosters a bias of anticipating hostility. We employ abductive theorising: working with established theory alongside empirical discovery through a discourse analysis of Russia’s official rhetoric on NATO and the use of the TT ‘colour revolution’ since the conflict in Ukraine began in 2014.
Trump II: A new trajectory in Russia relations for NATO Nordic states
• The incoming Trump administration will replace the policy of “stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes” with “making a deal with Russia”. This might entail de-escalation with Russia as well as economic and security burden-sharing with Europe. Norway and its now NATO neighbours Sweden and Finland have a window of opportunity to develop new policy for the second Trump term. • An adjusted approach to relations with Russia in the North can be devised that draws on Norwegian traditions in its relations with Russia. This approach will differ from the UK, Poland and the Baltic States but can represent a fruitful model of NATO membership for the Nordic states. • Despite a significant decline in military tension in the North since 2022, the risk of a future security competition with Russia and Nordic NATO members should not be downplayed. Presuming Russia is a status quo power in the North, NATO should have a clear and predictable posture in the North that combines deterrence and reassurance. • Russia should not be treated as a monolithic entity; there are moderates that would welcome diplomacy with Nordic NATO neighbours. Backchannel contacts between Russia and the Nordic NATO states can develop the outlines of an adjusted security posture for the North that could be received favourably by the new Trump Administration as it attempts to open negotiations to end the war in Ukraine
Water and Conflict in Central Asia
This project examines the escalating water scarcity crisis in Central Asia, focusing on key hotspots like the Qosh Tepa Canal, to analyze how climate change, population growth, and unilateral water st...
Fra salong til stormaktsspill
Hvordan var det å være kvinne i diplomatiet før i tiden? Og hvordan er det å være «diplomatfrue»? I denne episoden av Utenrikshospitalet får vi et...
Det er ikke Norge som har spilt seg selv ut over sidelinjen
Franske tilstander
Politisk drama har preget Frankrike i mange måneder, og fransk politikk er mer usikker enn vi har sett på mange tiår. Det kan kaste Europa ut i en...
How are these two supposed to cooperate?
They don’t have much in common, Donald Trump and Keir Starmer. But does that mean we are about to see a British showdown with the United States? In this op-ed in Dagsavisen, NUPI researchers Øyvind Svendsen and Paul Beaumont raise this question. At first glance, the two leaders appear to be diametrical opposites. On one side, the somewhat rigid social democrat and human rights lawyer Starmer; on the other, the ruthless rule-breaker Trump. Can they cooperate at all? Must the British now break away from their special relationship with their American guiding star?
Tourists as a Means of Power
For many in Norway, Chinese tourists represent an important source of income. For China, tourism is hardline politics. Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide (Arbeiderpartiet) recently told Aftenposten that we must exercise caution regarding Chinese investments in critical infrastructure, but that this does not preclude a future free trade agreement. Minister of Culture Lubna Jaffery (Arbeiderpartiet) also seeks to strengthen cooperation with China. It is reasonable to question whether the government fully understands Chinese power politics. As China expert Torbjørn Færøvik emphasizes, it is one thing to work towards cooperation and dialogue with China, “but weaving the Norwegian economy into the Chinese one is something quite different.”