Water and Conflict in Central Asia

This project examines the escalating water scarcity crisis in Central Asia, focusing on key hotspots like the Qosh Tepa Canal, to analyze how climate change, population growth, and unilateral water strategies exacerbate interstate tensions and threaten regional stability.

Themes

The critical issue of water scarcity in Central Asia is gaining momentum and resonates across region's agriculture, power generation, and conflict dynamics. Growing demand for food and water amplify interstate tensions over the region's limited water resources. There are several water hotspots for tensions over water in Central Asia: Qosh Tepa Canal built by Afghanistan; Rogundam; Aral Sea / Karakalpakstan; water sharing in the Ferghana Valley; subsiding sea level of the Caspian. These challenges are exacerbated by population growth, climate change, poor resource management, unilateral water strategies of riparian states, and the region's historical water-related tensions. In this project we will pay particular attention to the Qosh Tepa Canal project, due to its large conflict potential.

The project is funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and runs from January 2024 until the end of February 2025.

MFA of Norway