Next Arctic Rush? Critical Materials for the Energy Transition (NEXTRUSH)
The NEXTRUSH Project investigates the geopolitical and environmental implications of sourcing critical minerals from the Arctic for the global transition to zero-emission energy, combining engineering...
The Arctic Barometer: Measuring Expert Predictions on the Arctic Region
Making predictions in a highly uncertain environment is always a hazardous enterprise. Confronted with global warming, the future of the Arctic region has been often debated, both in terms of the scope and the speed of expected changes, including the future of resource development, the opening of shipping routes, and the evolution of multilateral fora. These predictions have come from different sources: governments through different policy papers and statements, the media, civil society, and academics, to name but a few. It can be difficult to account for this vast and diverse array of predictions, considering that each actor has interests to promote. We decided to develop a survey asking different actors to make predictions about possible Arctic geopolitical developments. Instead of letting individuals make their own predictions on the topic of their choice, we selected plausible scenarios and prompted respondents to evaluate if these developments were likely or unlikely to happen. Scenarios were developed to be both visible and concrete: we can evaluate if the scenario unfolded or not during a certain time period. For example, we can observe if Russia violated the airspace of another Arctic state, if Greenland reached state sovereignty, or if the U.S. deployed a freedom of navigation operations in the Arctic region. In total, our scenarios covered two dimensions: governance and security. On governance, potential developments around diplomatic initiatives or multilateral cooperation were tested. On security, the possibility of military conflict in the region or of military intrusions were considered. Two main objectives justified this approach. First, we wanted to evaluate if experts were correct in their predictions. Related to this, we were curious to know which type of issues caused incorrect assessments. Second, we repeated the same scenarios in multiple waves: the objective was to analyze if specific geopolitical developments occurring between waves would change predictions, moving the needle on experts’ predictions
Verden vil til Arktis – hva vil vi?
Denne rapporten er et sammendrag av Utenriksdepartementets Respons-konferanse som ble avholdt i samarbeid med UiT den 13. mai 2024. Konferansen startet med åpningsinnlegg fra UiT-rektor Dag Rune Olsen og Tromsøs ordfører Gunnar Wilhelmsen, samt en tale fra Utenriksminister Espen Barth Eide. Etter dette fulgte tre bolker med talere som ga ulike analyser av og innspill til norsk utenrikspolitikk. I del 1 – Arktis møter verden – deltok Camilla Brekke, Stian Bones, Morten Høglund, Gunn-Britt Retter, Luna Drecker, Gøril Johansen og Odd Emil Ingebrigtsen. I del 2 – Russland i ny arktisk sikkerhetspolitisk kontekst – innledet statssekretær Eivind Vad Petersson fra Utenriksdepartementet. Deretter bidro Kari Aga Myklebost, Arild Moe, Julie Wilhelmsen, Hans-Jacob Bønå og Terje Aunevik med analyser. Siste bolk – Samarbeid i nord – militært og sivilt – ble åpnet med innlegg fra statssekretær i kommunal- og distriktsdepartementet Sigrun Wiggen Prestbakmo og Sjef Hæren, Generalmajor Lars S. Lervik. Deretter deltok Carina Sammeli, Dan Koivulaasko, Gunnhild Hoogensen Gjørv, Nils-Ole Foshaug, Njord Wegge og Petter Bjørkli i debatt, før Utenriksministeren avrundet seminaret med å svare på spørsmål fra publikum. Moderator for dagen var Jan-Gunnar Winther. Resten av denne rapporten er en sammenstilling av de viktigste budskapene som ble fremført i seminarets ulike bolker.
Arctic Climate Science: A Way Forward for Cooperation through the Arctic Council and Beyond
This brief is inspired and informed by a two-day workshop in Cambridge, Massachusetts entitled “The Future of Arctic Council Innovation: Charting A Course for Working-Level Cooperation” hosted by the Belfer Center’s Arctic Initiative at the Harvard Kennedy School in collaboration with the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, the Center for Ocean Governance at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, and the Polar Institute at the Wilson Center. Participants included diverse representatives from civil society, academia, Indigenous Peoples’ organizations, and governments with deep knowledge of and experience with both the Arctic Council and other regional governance mechanisms.
All Quiet on the Northern Front? Russian Media Coverage of Russia-China Arctic Cooperation
This research paper explores the extent and focus of China’s engagement in the Russian Arctic from one key Russian official media outlet, Rossiiskaya gazeta, and highlights how the daily’s coverage provides further context for understanding Russia’s approach to China in the Arctic.
Dealing with the challenge of Russian political warfare in the High North and in the Black Sea Region
How has Russia used other instruments of power than military ones in the context of the war in Ukraine?
Gine Rønne Bolling
Gine R. Bolling is a junior research fellow in the Research group on security and defence. She graduated with an MSc in Politics of Conflict, Rig...
Politics and Security in the Arctic (POPSARC)
At a time marked by major international turbulence – war in Europe, the breakdown of established diplomatic fora, the entry of new actors and stakeholders – there is an urgent need for also understand...
Security realities of freezing politics and thawing landscapes in the Arctic
Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has had immediate and ongoing effects for Arctic security and cooperative governance at both a regional an...
Options for Arctic governance in difficult weather