The Russia Conference 2023: Russia and the West – a new reality
Join us on 14 November for the annual Russia Conference!
Research on friendships in the Arctic
Norway and Poland as actors in a changing security landscape (NORPOLFACTOR)
The aim of the project is to develop enhanced knowledge of the security-related challenges, risks and threats Poland and Norway face in their strategic environment in the aftermath of the Russian inva...
Asia-Arctic Diplomacy a Decade Later: What has changed?
Ten years ago, five Asian states – China, India, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea – joined the Arctic Council as observers. This article discusses how the Asia-Arctic Five’s policies policies and priorities have evolved over the past decade and what their hopes are for the incoming Norwegian chairmanship of the Council.
Tobias Etzold
Tobias Etzold (PhD) is a Senior Research Fellow in the Research Group for Security and Defense at NUPI. He mainly works as project leader of the C...
Security realities of freezing politics and thawing landscapes in the Arctic
Navigating Breakup: Security realities of freezing politics and thawing landscapes in the Arctic
Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has had immediate and ongoing effects for Arctic security and cooperative governance at both a regional and international level. The region is impacted by the increased sanctions, the withdrawal of Western companies from Russia, the Western disconnect from energy dependencies, and has also witnessed an increase in hybrid security incidents. In addition, climate change continues at to change the environment at a staggering pace in the north. This report is an input to the Arctic Security Roundtable (ASR) and the Munich Security Conference, February 2023. It provides insights into both established and novel drivers of change in Arctic and security governance. Chapters cover the impacts of climate change on the physical environment, human security and the Arctic region’s military operational environment, and review the regional security policies of the three major powers (USA, China and Russia). The report argues leaders must continue to address Arctic governance challenges and take concrete steps to mitigate and manage risks, regardless of the cessation of cooperation with Russia and the radical uncertainty shaping the broader political environment.
A Governance and Risk Inventory for a Changing Arctic
Background Paper for the Arctic Security Roundtable at the Munich Security Conference 2020
International Cooperation in the Arctic 2035 – The Four Scenarios
The Arctic has always fascinated people; its history, its present, and its future. The future of the Arctic has increasingly become a subject of academic research and the application of scenario methodology. Scenarios can be defined as pro- spective storytelling (Schoemaker, 1993), presenting a set of plausible, contrasting images of the future (Schatzmann et al., 2013), and indicating what alternative futures might look like (Amer et al., 2013). Studies offering scenarios of future development of the Arctic include Brigham (2007), Myllylä et al. (2016), Lazariva et al. (2021), Petrov et al. (2021), Haavisto et al. (2016), and Bourmistrov et al. (2015); see also the chapter by Krivorotov in this volume. The farther we look ahead, the more uncertain the future appears. There can never be full consensus on what major trends and driving forces will have the greatest impact on the future. But precisely for this reason, any kind of structured thought experiment, such as scenario development, is valuable and can add new knowledge and shared understanding.