Next Arctic Rush? Critical Materials for the Energy Transition

To fulfill the Paris Agreement, the world needs to transition to 80% zero-emission energy by 2030, and 100% by 2050. The clean energy technologies needed to make this dramatic shift are dependent on the minerals known as "critical materials" (lithium, copper, rare earth elements etc.). If these are sourced from the Arctic, it might cause a shift in the interest in the region from fossil fuels to mining. This may complicate relations among the Arctic states and with the external actors interested in these resources. So far, research on Arctic geopolitics has paid little attention to this shift, and, conversely, the growing literature on the geopolitics of critical materials for the energy transition has paid little attention to the Arctic. The NEXTRUSH project will fill the gap. 

The project is interdisciplinary. An engineer will review the materials needed for clean energy technologies, geologists will review the data on Arctic reserves and compare them to global reserves, and, finally, social scientists will assess the implications for geopolitics, international relations, Arctic institutions and governance, and the role of China. The project will include an analysis of market dominance of sources of mineral supply and a scenario-building exercise. The project will result in six articles published in academic journals, the Arctic Environmental Responsibility Index (AERI) on oil, gas and mining in the Arctic, a set of scenarios for Arctic mining and its consequences, the Svalbard Seabed Mining Symposium and Critical Materials Risk Fora. The project team include some of the researchers who are most active in research on the Arctic.

This project is funded by the Norwegian Research Council. External project participants are Elana Wilson Rowe (NMBU/NUPI), Andreas Østhagen (FNI), Ida Soltvedt Hvinden (FNI) and Julia Loginova (Sustainable Minerals Institute, University of Queensland).