Researcher
Jakub M. Godzimirski
Contactinfo and files
Summary
Jakub M. Godzimirski has been working on Russian foreign and security policy issues at NUPI for more than 20 years, paying special attention to the role of energy resources in Russian grand strategy. In addition he also has worked on European policy and its impact on developments in Central and Eastern Europe, including relations with Russia.
Expertise
Education
1987 Ph.D. Polish Academy of Science and Letters
1981 MA social antropology at Warsaw University
Work Experience
1995- Senior research fellow at NUPI
1993-1994 Senior analyst at The Ministry of Defence, Poland
1981-1987 Research fellow at the Institute of Arts, The Polish Academy of Science and Letters
Aktivitet
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Clear all filtersCaught in the liberal pragmatic trap? How political parties viewed energy dependence on Russia in three European countries 2012–2022
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and its subsequent decision to stop its gas export to Europe, Europe’s energy dependence on Russia was put on full display. In this paper, we map energy relations with Russia in three European countries that in the period of analysis between 2012 and 2022 were among the most important energy customers of Russia: Poland, Germany and the Netherlands. Moreover, we examine how this issue has been addressed – if at all – in party programs in elections in the same period. Examining party programs, we argue, brings new insights and a better understanding of how energy policies and relations with Russia were viewed in the three countries – and in the EU in general in that period. The paper identifies two ideal types – the ‘liberal pragmatists’, who treated strong energy interdependence as a possible conflict-mitigating measure, and the ‘hard core realists’, who viewed strong energy dependence on Russia as a possible source of strategic threat. The paper is written as part of the research project "Russian Policies of Influence in the Populist-Pragmatic Nexus" (PRORUSS), funded by the Research Council of Norway (RCN).
Polish-Norwegian Perceptions and Interactions
This working paper, which is one of deliverables of the NORPOLFACTOR project, maps mutual perceptions of Poland in Norway and Norway in Poland, the basic ideas informing their approaches to security-related challenges caused by their location in Russia’s neighbourhood as well as what could be termed as areas of cooperation and points of contention in their cooperation on addressing various security related challenges in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Norway and Romania: Navigating Information Warfare
The study "Norway and Romania: Navigating Information Warfare" explores the use of disinformation, propaganda, and interference to manipulate public discourse amid the Ukraine war. It discusses how these tactics exploit historical and border sensitivities to delegitimize Ukraine and distract from the global economic impacts of Russian aggression. The research highlights how such strategies shift blame and reshape international perceptions favorably towards Russia. The study analyzes how Russian political warfare manifests itself in both Norway and Romania, dwelling on the particularities of each country. This study is one of deliverables of the FLANKS II project conducted jointly by New Strategy Center in Romania and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) in Oslo.
Can Europe get out of Russian gas?
After the invasion of Ukraine, Europeans are now rethinking its relationship with Russia, and its dependence on Russian gas. There is a strong des...
Poland and Norway in a changing geopolitical landscape
Which security-related challenges, risks and threats do Poland and Norway face in their strategic environment in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? And what impact has the Russian invasion of Ukraine had on perceptions of security in the two countries?
Dealing with the challenge of Russian political warfare in the High North and in the Black Sea Region
How has Russia used other instruments of power than military ones in the context of the war in Ukraine?
The Impact of the Ukraine Conflict on Norwegian Energy Dynamics
The Ukraine War, the New Geopolitics of Energy, and Norway
This study aims to address the question of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has changed patterns of regional and global energy interactions and how this influences perceptions of Norway as a major regional energy actor. To examine these important questions, we will proceed in the following manner. In the first part of this study, we will present our operational understanding of the key concepts shaping our thinking about the relationship between the geopolitical and geoeconomic aspects of international cooperation and rivalry. Here we also will discuss the role of various national instruments of power in the pursuit of geopolitical and geoeconomic objectives. In the second part we narrow the scope of this examination to shed light on the relationship between geopolitics and energy in global and regional contexts, paying special attention to trends shaping the international energy game. This includes the changing role of Russia; how green energy transition reshapes international energy cooperation and how old and new energy-related policy instruments are evolving in this rapidly changing energy landscape. In addition, we also examine the nature of the old and new threats to energy flows, particularly those related to critical energy infrastructure. In the third part of this study, we examine the direct and indirect impacts the Russian war against Ukraine has had on energy markets and what implications these recent developments have for the position of Norway as a major energy actor. Norway’s importance for energy consumers, especially in Europe, has increased because of the war. Although the global energy trends discussed in the previous section also influence Norway and Europe, the focus in the latter section is on the regional dimension as Norway’s energy supplies reach first and foremost Europe. Finally, we examine possible scenarios that may influence energy markets and geopolitical conditions, with special attention paid to global factors with the potential to cause serious shifts. Part of the focus is on possible technological breakthroughs that may change the parameters of the international energy interactions and undermine the position of traditional energy producers and exporters.
How the war in Ukraine has changed the security situation in the Black Sea and the High North
How has the Russian aggression against Ukraine launched in February 2022 changed perceptions of security in the Black Sea region and in the High North?
RUSMENA round tables in Rome and Florence on 1 and 2 June 2022