Jakub M. Godzimirski

The risks of being an ally

States join security alliances to increase their level of security vis-à-vis neighbours that may pose a threat. The deterrence logic that was the main rationale for joining NATO in 1949 still represents the cornerstone of Norway’s security policy. However, belonging to a military alliance can also pose challenges. This policy brief focuses on some possible negative spillover effects that could emerge from being member of a military alliance. The focus here is on current challenges within NATO, and the possible implications for Norway. First, we present a broader conceptual framework. What are the internal and external challenges facing NATO? How do NATO and its members deal with them? We then proceed to the implications for Norway. Due to structural factors that shape relations in Norway’s strategic environment – including the location of Russian strategic bases close to the border, and the clear asymmetry in capabilities – negative developments in other regions and theatres may influence Norwegian security directly. We argue that, in order to minimize the likelihood of negative trends spilling over to Norway’s strategic neighbourhood, it is important to communicate the special features of this neighbourhood clearly to other members of the alliance. Further, to facilitate intra-alliance trust and cohesion, Norway should also emphasize NATO’s internal, shared value-base, in order to make the alliance better prepared to meet external security challenges.

Conclusions: What Has the EU Achieved, and What Is in the Offing?

This chapter sums up the main findings and looks into challenges the EU will face in the future. This volume examines and addresses several questions dealing with the EU ability to project various types of soft and hard power in EU’s interaction with external energy suppliers and member states and their responses. The second part focuses on the future challenges in the field of energy and is based on examination of some scenarios for development of the global energy system, the EU’s own understanding of future challenges in the field of energy and finally on examination of the WEF assessment of risks and trends that may influence future developments.

Channels of Influence or How Non-Members Can Influence EU Energy Policy

External suppliers of energy interested in access to EU energy market use various instruments to influence the process of energy policy-making and promote their interests. This chapter examines how those external suppliers are present in Brussels, their interests in energy policy, the formal and informal frameworks they operate in as well as various instruments they have at their disposal to influence the process of policy-making in the EU. The focus is on the use of communicative and other instruments employed by Norway, a quasi-EU member through its EEA affiliation, and Russia, the main external supplier of energy to the EU and source of strategic concern, the two countries interested in security of demand facing EU preoccupied with security of supply and diversification of supplies and routes.

New Political Economy of Energy in Europe. Power to Project, Power to Adapt

This edited collection details and analyses the dramatic changes that the international political economy of energy has undergone in the past decade. This change began with the increasing assertiveness of Russia when the oil price rose above the $100 mark in 2008. This, combined with the rise of shale oil and gas, made the USA all but self-sufficient in terms of fossil fuels. The collapse of the oil price in 2014-15, Saudi Arabia’s new strategy of defending its market share and the increasingly tense and controversial relationship between the West and Russia all worked to further strengthen the geopolitical dimension of energy in Europe. The global result is a world in which geopolitics play a bigger part than ever before; the central question the authors of this volume grapple with is how the EU – and European small states – can deal with this.

Polen mellom fortid, notid og framtid

2015 markerer eit viktig skilje i Polens nyare historie. For fyrste gong etter den store politiske omveltinga i 1989 fekk landet ei rein fleirtalsregjering og ein president frå same politiske parti.

Changing representations of Poles in Norway: what can this mean for the future of Polish diaspora?

The aim of this chapter was to examine how the perception of Polish migrants had evolved in Norway in a longer historical perspective and how this evolution of perceptions may influence the situation of the Polish diaspora in Norway. The study is based on the analysis of the content of Norwegian media in two periods – prior to the 2004 EU enlargement and in 2014. The study maps how the situation of Poles in Norway has been presented in main media outlets, how the Polish community in Norway has been framed and how those perceptions have evolved during the last decade. The chapter maps whether the issue of Polish migration to Norway has been politicised in the aftermath of the massive inflow of Polish labour migrants after 2004 and how those attempts at politicisation of the issue of Polish migration in particular, and migration in more general terms, may impact on the situation of the Polish diaspora in Norway.

How to understand and deal with Russian strategic communication measures?

Russia’s use of communicative tools to promote the country’s strategic objectives in the aftermath of the 2014 crisis in Ukraine has posed a new strategic challenge to the Western policy-making community. NATO, the EU and national authorities have become increasingly aware of this new challenge, and have taken measures to reduce the negative impacts of Russian (dis)information campaigns.

Nordic-Baltic Security in Times of Uncertainty: The Defence-Energy Nexus

The report shows that energy and defence in the Nordic-Baltic region are closely interrelated. During the Cold War, the energy cooperation of Western European countries with the USSR was seen as an element of strengthening the status quo and reducing the risk of conflict. In the new strategic situation, when Russia is interested in regaining the status of regional and global power, there is a real threat that Kremlin will use Europe's dependence on Russian gas to divide NATO and the EU. The Russian military advantage in the region, the ability to block access to Alliance forces and the ability to influence its members through energy blackmail may encourage Russia to test NATO's credibility, increasing the risk of conflict in the region. NATO's ability to deter Russia creates a natural platform of cooperation for Norway and Poland. Both states should also be interested in reducing the Alliance's dependence on Russian energy resources.

Energia i obronność w regionie Nordycko-Bałtyckim