Publikasjoner
Hacking democracy: managing influence campaigns and disinformation in the digital age
How are states responding to the threat of using digital technologies to subvert democratic processes? Protecting political and democratic processes from interference via digital technologies is a new and complicated security threat. In recent years the issue has been most prominent in terms of election security, yet the widespread usage of digital technologies allows for the subversion of democratic processes in multifaceted ways. From disrupting the political discourse with false information to inflaming and stoking political divisions digital technologies allows for a variety of ways for malicious actors to target democracies. This article compares different state experiences with interference in sovereign and contested political decisions. More specifically the article compares the Norwegian approach and experience in managing these challenges with those of Finland and the UK. Mapping both how the problem is understood, and the role of previous experiences in shaping public policy.
Singapore: How to Attract More Investment in Renewable Energy?
Singapore has limited renewable energy potential due to its small surface area and the limited space available. Solar power has the greatest potential. Given the country’s limited spare land, rooftops and vertical spaces on high-rise buildings are of particular importance. Singapore set a target of producing solar energy to cover 350,000 households in 2030 that would be equivalent to 4% of the country’s current electricity demand. In 2019, solar energy accounted for less than 1% of Singapore’s total energy mix. We propose four actions to improve the investment climate for renewable energy in Singapore: develop incentive and regulatory support mechanism; consolidate solar energy governance; mobilise equity investors and lenders; specialise in the long-distance trade of renewable energy, especially in the form of hydrogen.
The Philippines: How to Leapfrog from a Complicated Renewable Energy Sector to an Attractive One
The Philippines set the target of increasing the share of renewable energy in its energy mix from 16.9% in 2019 to 26.9% by 2030. This ambitious target requires significant additional investment in renewable energy. It has been estimated that the Philippines could attract USD 20 billion in renewable energy investment through auctions between 2020 and 2030. To achieve this, the investment climate for renewables needs to be improved. Over the last few years, other ASEAN countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand have been viewed as more attractive markets by foreign investors. We propose five actions that can improve the attractiveness of Philippines’ investment climate for renewable energy and help it join the regional race for investment: prioritise renewables in the energy governance system; enforce existing regulatory and fiscal policies; raise the targets and develop an investment roadmap; facilitate market entry for renewable energy investors; build capacity for renewable energy governance.
Doubling Down on Arctic Diplomacy
The Arctic looms large in the popular consciousness as a potential new theatre of conflict. But the real risk is that the consuming politics of great power rivalry will deflect attention from the real progress of diplomacy and the everyday work of Arctic governance. This op-ed outlines three key areas that merit greater diplomatic attention and could pay dividends in reducing the impact of great power competition on the rapidly changing Arctic.
Sjømatnæringen og Europa: EU-medlemskap, EØS eller NOREXIT?
EØS er en omfattende avtale med mange tusen rettsakter nedfelt i norske lover og praksis, men antall rettsakter varierer sterkt mellom ulike saksfelter, og på noen områder er håndhevelsen viktigere enn nye lover. Norge har i 2020 96 avtaler med EU, hvorav 46 er det vi kan kalle handelsavtaler. Sveits har et omfattende samarbeid med EU uten å være med i EØS, men forholdet Sveits–EU er under press. Oppsummering av bokas kapitler peker i retning av at det potensielt er mer å tape økonomisk på bortfall av EØS, enn det er å vinne på EU-medlemskap.
Norges handelsforhandlinger med EU gjennom 50 år: Sakskoblinger og forhandlingsmakt
Kapitlet gir en historisk oversikt over Norges handelsforhandlinger med EU fra 1973 og fram til i dag, med særlig vekt på utfallet for sjømatnæringen. Rundt 1990 ga EFTA forhandlingsmakt til tross for ulike næringsinteresser. EØS-forhandlingene var i 1991 preget av sakskoblinger der mange felter var i spill, og det ble oppnådd betydelige tollreduksjoner for sjømat. Senere har forhandlingene vært adskilt i parallelle spor med svake sakskoblinger. Norge har med redusert forhandlingsmakt blitt presset til stadig økning i EØS-midlene, men frihandel for fisk er aldri oppnådd selv om betydelige tollkvoter er gitt som kompensasjon for tidligere frihandelsavtaler med nye EU-medlemsland.
Sjømatnæringen og Europa. EØS og alternativene
Boken analyserer betydningen av EØS for sjømatnæringen og konsekvensene dersom EØS blir erstattet av EU-medlemskap eller en annen form for handelsavtale: NOREXIT. Dette belyses på områder av særlig betydning for sjømatnæringen, som toll, veterinær- og grensekontroll; utenlandsk arbeidskraft i foredlingsindustrien; fangstkvoter etter Brexit og utenlandsinvesteringer. I tillegg inneholder boken utdypende kapitler om EØS-avtalen, forhandlingshistorien med EU og EØS-jussen. Boken er resultat av et tverrfaglig prosjekt med vekt på økonomi og statsvitenskap. Bidragene er skrevet av framstående eksperter fra norske universiteter og forskningsinstitusjoner. Boken har ingen politisk agenda for å avskaffe EØS til fordel for bestemte alternativer; den er et fagfellevurdert akademisk bidrag til økt kunnskap om EØS og alternativene.
Fra «fiskebrevet» til EØS: Betydningen av toll for norsk sjømateksport til EU
En «tollens arkeologi» viser hvordan dagens toll for norsk sjømat er basert på ulike handelsavtaler inngått med EU over 50 år. Videre tallfestes den økonomiske virkningen av toll og tollkvoter med EØS, EU-medlemskap eller bortfall av EØS. Handelsavtalene reduserte tollen fra 2,3 til en milliard NOK i 2018. EØS-avtalen sto for 2/3 av tollinnsparingen, mens «fiskebrevet» fra 1973 utgjorde mindre enn 1/10. Bortfall av EØS kan føre til et eksporttap på inntil mer enn tre milliarder kroner for fangstnæringen, mens EU-medlemskap kan bety økt eksport, særlig for oppdrettsnæringen.
The Dangers of Disconnection: Oscillations in Political Violence on Lake Chad
Narrations on fragility and resilience in the Sahel paint a picture about the region’s inherent ungovernability that lead to consider an endless state- and peace-building process as the most feasible governance solution. Everyday practices of violent entrepreneurship, coalescing with inter-community and land-tenure conflicts, now inform social relations and are transforming moral economies around Lake Chad. While competition over territory suitable for farming, grazing and fishing has intensified, dispute-settlement practices organised by community-level authorities have proven ineffective and lacking the necessary means to respond to the encroachment of a wide range of interests claimed by increasingly powerful actors. Meanwhile, communities organised in self-defence militias are undergoing a process of progressive militarisation that tends to normalise violence and legitimise extra-judicial vigilante justice, further empowering capital-endowed arms suppliers gravitating in the jihadi galaxy, such as the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).
The Nuclear Umbrella Revisited
The NPT is in miserable shape, betrayed on the disarmament dimension, stuck in the Middle East and mostly irrelevant to the Asian nuclear armed states, but it has proven resilient and lingers on. It will soon be accompanied by the TPNW, which is about to enter into force. Hopefully, the wrangling between the respective treaty supporters will calm down and enable a new consensus on the normative basis for non-proliferation and disarmament consisting of a combination of both treaties. That will not happen overnight, however. There is a long way from mutual recriminations to passive co-existence to bridge-building to exploitation of synergies – if it ever happens. The dilemma facing the umbrella states is a hard one. On the one hand, it is in their interest not to be defended with nuclear weapons. On the other hand, they deem it important to remain members of NATO. These propositions may or may not be compatible. Some believe they are, emphasising that the Alliance is a conglomerate of nuclear and non-nuclear states; of states that are hosting nuclear weapons and others which do not; and that France left the military part of NATO but remained part of the political cooperation without rocking the rest. Others claim they are not and note that in the face of big power pressure, small states tend to balk at running the risks involved – especially if they cannot agree to act together. Business as usual is the problem, not the solution. In view of current trends in international security affairs there can be little disagreement about that. If so, much is achieved, because it encourages reflection and re-examination of established positions. If not, the strength of argument will remain posited against the power of inertia.