Marc Lanteigne

The spiralling effects of the Sino-American trade war

Almost two years ago, China and the United States instigated a trade conflict which has had serious international effects, a situation since exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. What has truly made a solution to this conflict elusive, however, is that its origins lie well beyond questions of trade deficits and fair competition, and are instead based on the looming question of a power transition between to the two states. The effects of this divergence are beginning to be observed in several economic realms, including the financial and the technological. Many other actors in the global economy have begun to experience the side effects of this completion, and may now have to face difficult choices about how to balance between these two emerging poles in the current fragile global economy.

Sino-Nordic sub-regional diplomacy and the 5+1 model

During the last few years China has expressed a willingness to relate to the Nordic states in a more coordinated and structured manner, similar to how China has organized its relationhip with countries in East and central europe. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues related tp whether the Nordic states can ansd will develop a more unified approach to China, and some of the pitfalls and possibilities of a more structured cooperation.

China and Nordic Diplomacy

This book seeks to explore Nordic approaches to China and the idea of sub-regional diplomacy. China’s multi-tiered approach to Europe can be seen vividly in the Nordic sub-region, which has been engaging Beijing through a variety of different means corresponding to the political and economic structures found in the Nordic states. In some areas, a specific Nordic approach can be observed, including areas related to economic cooperation, Arctic diplomacy and institution-building. However, the Nordic states also have widely differing historical experiences with China leading up to the present day. Each of the Nordic states has also had to balance their China relations with those of the EU and other major players such as the US. With case studies on the EU, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, this volume addresses the question of a specifically Nordic approach to Chinese relations. It explores not only the contributions of the Nordics to China relations, but also adds to the greater study of sub-regional approaches to Chinese diplomacy at a time when Sino-European relations are arguably at their most complex. This book will be of much interest to students and researchers of Chinese politics, Nordic politics, diplomacy and IR in general.

'Have you entered the storehouses of the snow?' China as a norm entrepreneur in the Arctic

The admission of China as an observer in the Arctic Council in 2013 was a significant step in the ongoing evolution of the country's Arctic policy, but Beijing is still concerned about being accepted as a regional player given its geography and arguably lack of an Arctic history. As the Arctic becomes more open to scientific and economic engagement, China wishes to develop the idea of the Arctic as more of an international space as opposed to strictly a regional one, and to allow non-Arctic states, such as China itself, to become accepted as Arctic actors. However, in order to avoid a backlash from the Arctic states and potential exclusion from the region's development, Beijing cannot effectively be a unilateral ‘norm-maker’ in the Arctic. Instead, China has sought to develop the identity of a regional ‘norm entrepreneur’, engaging the Arctic on many levels to promote the norm of partnerships between Arctic and non-Arctic actors to promote positive sum outcomes. Through engagement via several areas and governmental levels, Beijing hopes to succeed in being widely viewed as a ‘near-Arctic state’ which can contribute to new norms, and possibly new regimes, in an Arctic which shows many signs of becoming further internationalised.

The Russian Far East and the Northern Sea route in evolving Sino-Russian strategic relations

A Pivot to What? Asia-Pacific Foreign Policy under Trump

Despite the difficulty in making predictions about an incoming American administration even before the inaugural process has been completed, the first two months since the US elections in November 2016 have already generated a great deal of debate and concern, about uncharted new directions in US foreign policy under president elect Donald Trump. Certainly the new president faces a host of international challenges,including Middle East security and chaotic relations with Russia, but arguably the most critical tests for the incoming government will be found in the Asia-Pacific region. As within other areas of foreign policy, Trump as a candidate oscillated,at times wildly, between interventionism and isolationism in his approach to Pacific Rim affairs, and as the year came to a close there was much watching and waiting in policy circles to see which of these would dominate. In addition, Trump assumes the presidency with the dubious distinction of possessing the lowest amount of foreign policy background in the history of American politics, so there is also the question of his administration’s ‘learning’ curve in crucial areas including the Asia-Pacific, with China relations at the forefront.

The South China Sea after "Philippines v. China": Summer of Our Discontent?

The July 2016 decision by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the case of the Philippines versus China on outstanding legal disputes in the South China Sea was a watershed in the ongoing dispute over the waterway’s status. Although the verdicts weighed heavily against China’s claim to historical waters in the SCS, the court’s decision will hardly be the last word on the subject, given Beijing’s rejection of the ruling and the growing importance of the waterway to both China as well as Southeast Asia and US policy in East Asia. In the wake of the decision, a cooling-off period would be ideal, but there are several variables which may or may not permit a reduction in tensions to take hold.