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Tryggingspolitikk sett frå Tyrkia og Russland

Plug and Play: Multinational Rotation Contributions for UN Peacekeeping Operations

In 2016, Norway spearheaded the provision of multinational rotation contribution (MRC) of a C-130 transport plane, together with Belgium, Denmark, Portugal, and Sweden, lasting from January 2016 to December 2018. According to Hervé Ladsous, then Under Secretary-General (USG) for UN peacekeeping operations, speaking at the UN Peacekeeping Defence Ministerial in London on 8 September 2016, MRCs can be seen as a new and innovative partnership aimed at providing a predictable supply of niche capabilities to UN peace operations. This report studies early lessons from the C-130 MRC and argues that for some key capabilities, MRCs can complement traditional force generation for UN peacekeeping operations. For member states, the ‘plug-and-play’ characteristic can lower the threshold and increase the incentives for contribution; for the UN, they can enable predictable and cost-effective supply of niche capabilities in key areas. However, MRCs are not applicable to all capabilities, and require flexibility and the ability to reform among all concerned parties.

Upholding the NATO cyber pledge Cyber Deterrence and Resilience: Dilemmas in NATO defence and security politics

This Policy Brief clarifies the key concepts of traditional deterrence and explores how these apply to cyber deterrence for the NATO alliance. Firstly a range of problems inherent to cyberspace itself and to the translation of existing deterrence models to this domain are identified. Secondly a range of alternative and complementary approaches to deterrence are proposes that can assist in developing a new framework for conceptualizing NATO Alliance cyber deterrence. A rethinking cyber deterrence as a condition of success or failure is argued for: cyber deterrence must be reframed as an ongoing process, utilizing national and Alliance resources from multiple domains as a means to establish deterrence and resilience. It is argued that traditional models of deterrence, drawn from the nuclear and conventional deterrence thinking of many decades’ standing, are inadequate for addressing the challenge of deterring cyber threats in the 21st century. The dynamism of the environment, the range of threats, the multiplicity of state and non-state actors, and the technical challenges of attribution – all require a reorientation of deterrence posture and practice. This reconceptualization must focus on cyberspace itself in an intensification of attention to its idiosyncrasies, but should also be open to a relaxation of orthodoxy in its incorporation of new outlooks and ideas, some of which may strain the established boundaries of deterrence theory. Full text Policy Brief online version: http://www.nupi.no/en/About-NUPI/Projects-centres-and-programmes/Cyber-Security-Centre/Upholding-the-NATO-cyber-pledge

The Rebalance to Asia Under Trump

Attempts to predict the future shape of President Donald Trump’s defence policy in the Asia-Pacific are a challenge, at best. Nevertheless, Patrick Cullen argues that, in contrast to early assumptions that he would initiate a more isolationist defence policy and break with the previous administration’s Rebalance to Asia policy, Trump is more likely to adopt a hawkish – if unpredictable – enforcement of the policy’s key defence objectives. Gauging whether the Trump administration will bring either change from, or continuity with, the military component of the Rebalance to Asia policy will require keeping an eye on each of the policy’s subcategories.