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As safe as the Bank? : Household financial behaviour and economic reasoning in post-soviet Russia

This study examines the financial behaviour of Russian households from the collapse of communism to the financial melt down in August 1998. By transforming savings into investment, financial intermediaries are important to economic growth. In post-Soviet Russia, financial intermediaries were increasingly unable to attract new household savings, as people turned to foreign currency. What determined the allocation of household savings? The study considers the three main alternatives households could turn to: The state savings bank; commercial financial companies; and foreign currency, mainly dollars. But how do we go about to explain the behaviour of millions of individuals over time? Economists usually assume that people maximise returns on their assets. Financial behaviour would then reflect economic variables such as interest rate, exchange rate and inflation. Such a view fits uneasily with observed behaviour in post-Soviet Russia. However, why would people not allocate their savings in the most profitable way? This study holds that to understand why people do what they do, we should listen carefully - although not uncritically - to what they say and how they say it. On this view, we can explain the behaviour of individuals only if we can understand them. And - since social phenomena are constituted by the behaviour of individuals - such understanding is crucial to the causal explanation of macro level phenomena. The historical narrative thus becomes an important vehicle for explanation of the contemporary world. Through analysis of discourses on financial institutions, as they appeared in newspapers of the day and as I have been able to gather from interviews conducted in 2004, this study identifies certain dramatic events that altered the way Russians perceived different financial institutions and their view on trust, risk and profitability, and finds that such changes in perception go a long way to explain the changes in observed behaviour in this period.

Shi'i Separatism in Iraq : Internet Reverie or Real Constitutional Challenge?

This paper deals with non-conformist ideas among Iraqi Shi‘is about the territorial integrity of the modern state of Iraq. Two findings are presented. First, new Internet communications technology has enabled radical Shi‘is outside the main clerical, intellectual and political establishments to propagate visions of an independent Shi‘i state for the areas south of Baghdad, a scheme that runs counter to a robust and long-standing anti-separatist tradition among wider sections of the Shi‘i community. Secondly, by choosing the Internet as their primary modus operandi, the Shi‘i separatists also expose their relative weakness vis-à-vis other and less radical trends in Iraqi Shi‘i society.

“Copy That…”: A Russian “Bush Doctrine” in the CIS?

Tackling Welfare Gaps: The East European Transition and New Patterns of Migration to Norway

The main purpose of the study is to analyse how the growing welfare gaps between Eastern and Western Europe have become a securitised issue that needs to be addressed by national, international and supranational bodies. The very existence of welfare gaps is an important migratory push-factor. This study will examine how the economic and social transition in Eastern Europe – first of all in Russia and Poland, but also in the rest of what used to be defined as Eastern Bloc1 – has contributed to the emergence of a new set of push and pull factors in the region, and as a direct result, to new patterns of emigration. The next step will be to see how these emerging migratory patterns have influenced migration trends in Norway. As Norway is often represented as the wealthiest country in Europe and a country that has successfully pursued what is often in the Central and Eastern European discourse described as ‘the third way’ of development: a country that, thanks to its revenues from oil, has managed to build a capitalism with a human face, Norway has become both a potential and actual country of migration to many of the citizens from the former Communist Bloc. Thus, this study maps both the ‘push factors’ in the area of actual and potential emigration in Eastern and Central Europe, as well as the most important ‘pull factors’ in the areas of actual and potential migration, with a focus on Central/Eastern Europe on the one hand, and Norway on the other. In this context we will look at various institutional and non-institutional strategies of eliminating the welfare gaps perceived as a major cause of migration. As migration is increasingly becoming a securitised issue, I will treat the ‘welfare gap/migration issue’ as a part of a new post-Cold War European security equation.

The State, the People and the Armed Forces – a Genealogical Outline of the Legitimacy of the Armed Forces in Norway

The Norwegian armed forces in the early 21st century is in a phase of rapid change and transition. International missions are about to become its main task, whereas traditional domestic territorial defence is becoming less and less relevant. Is this transition purely a technical adjustment to a new security environment, or does it also entail more fundamental changes in the relationship between the armed forces, the state and the population? Could the military risk to lose its popular legitimacy? To grasp the current changes, it is important to understand the foundations of the relationship between the military, the state and the people. As well as how these relations have evolved over time. This is certainly not the first time in history the armed forces are facing fundamental changes. This article seeks to shed light on some of these developments in Norway over the last centuries. The evolvement of the conscript system will be used to illustrate some of these developments. I will argue that the Norwegian authorities to date have been reluctant in addressing the changes, applying what can be described as ‘yesterday’s explanations’ when legitimising military operations of today. If this trend of ignorance continues, the danger of a popular back-lash increases.

Stalin i postsovjetisk nasjonalbolsjevisme

Ikke bare ortodokse marxist-leninister så med sorg på Sovjetunionens oppløsning. I hele sovjetperioden fantes det også patrioter og nasjonalister som støttet aktiv opp om det kommunistiske regimet. Denne uensartede gruppen av «medløpere» kalles gjerne for nasjonalbolsjeviker. De betraktet Sovjetunionen som en fortsettelse av det russiske imperiet og Stalin som en arvtaker etter de største tsarene. Det paradoksale er at det i dag, mer enn et tiår etter Sovjetunionens oppløsning, fortsatt finnes representanter for denne tradisjonen. Etter at kommunismens maktmonopol ble brutt, står de nå fritt til å uttrykke sine tanker og søke inspirasjon hvor de måtte finne den. Aleksandr Dugin, Gennadij Zjuganov og Aleksandr Prochanov er alle aktive publisister og fremtredende representanter for postsovjetisk nasjonalbolsjevisme. I dette notatet brukes en idéhistorisk undersøkelse av deres syn på Stalin som verktøy til å finne ut hvordan nasjonalbolsjevismen har utviklet seg etter kommunismens fall. Studien viser at nasjonalbolsjevismen ideologisk sett har opplevd en blomstring i tiden etter Sovjetunionens sammenbrudd. Den har utviklet seg i flere retninger, men et hovedtrekk er at retorikken er blitt mer intolerant og hatefull. «Medløperideologien» er nå blitt revisjonistisk. Sovjetperiodens nasjonalbolsjeviker ønsket å bevare staten og systemet. Dugin, Zjuganov og Prochanov går inn for å gjenopprette Sovjetunionen, gjerne i form av et enda større eurasiatisk imperium med en ny Stalin på tronen. Dessuten rettferdiggjør de Stalins utrenskninger i større grad enn sine åndsbrødre fra sovjettiden. I tråd med sin bipolære verdensanskuelse deler Dugin, Zjuganov og Prochanov mennesker inn i venner og fiender av den russiske nasjon. De mener Stalins utrenskninger kun var rettet mot dem som ville Russland vondt og ønsker seg et nytt, brutalt oppgjør med dagens fiender.