Russia's turn to the East: The Ministry for the Development of the Far East, and the domestic dimension
Russia’s recently proclaimed turn toward Asia is fuelled by expectations of reaping benefits from integrating with the fast-growing markets of Northeast Asia. However, such a geoeconomic reorientation requires a viable springboard in the Russian Far East. For all the talk about Asia–Pacific markets, a key component of the Asian pivot is Russia’s own Far Eastern region, an underdeveloped, crisis-ridden backwater that currently constitutes a ‘double periphery’ – in relation to Moscow, and to the Asia–Pacific (Kuhrt 2012).
Fragile States as the New Development Agenda?
As Europe struggles with the repercussions of violent conflict in the Middle East, North Africa and the Sahel, including high numbers of refugees attempting to enter Europe, the issue of fragile states is pushed to the top of European policy agendas. There are calls to do more – military interventions in different forms, but also humanitarian and development assistance. European countries seek to refocus their development aid towards stabilisation efforts in fragile states that send refugees their way. This trend is unfolding all over Europe, including the Nordic countries. What then could be the basis for a new development agenda for fragile states. Senior Research Fellow Morten Bøås adresses this in new debate article.
Social Justice through Inclusion: The Consequences of Electoral Quotas in India
Across the world, governments design and implement policies with the explicit goal of promoting social justice. But can such institutions change entrenched social norms? And what effects should we expect from differently designed policies? Francesca R. Jensenius' Social Justice through Inclusion is an empirically rich study of one of the most extensive electoral quota systems in the world: the reserved seats for the Scheduled Castes (SCs, the former "untouchables") in India's legislative assemblies. Combining evidence from quantitative datasets from the period 1969-2012, archival work, and in-depth interviews with politicians, civil servants, and voters across India, the book explores the long-term effects of electoral quotas for the political elite and the general population. It shows that the quota system has played an important role in reducing caste-based discrimination, particularly at the elite level. Interestingly, this is not because the system has led to more group representation - SC politicians working specifically for SC interests - but because it has made possible the creation and empowerment of a new SC elite who have gradually become integrated into mainstream politics. This is a study of India, but the findings and discussions have broader implications. Policies such as quotas are usually supported with arguments about various assumed positive long-term consequences. The nuanced discussions in this book shed light on how electoral quotas for SCs have shaped the incentives for politicians, parties, and voters, and indicate the trade-offs inherent in how such policies of group inclusion are designed.
Myanmars Attractiveness for Investment in the Energy Sector: A Comparative International Perspective
This report examines the strengths and weaknesses of Myanmar’s business climate in the petroleum and renewable energy sectors: how it compares with other countries, especially in ASEAN; what matters to foreign investors; and how this situation can be improved. Not resting on one’s (new) laurels: The recent international interest in Myanmar may prove counterproductive for the country’s investment climate, if this upsurge in interest induces the government to slow down in its reform efforts. When the novelty of Myanmar wears off, that may become a problem. Indeed, possible signs of such a slowdown can be observed already. According to official data, FDI in Myanmar decreased significantly in the first four months of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. Investors were increasingly cautious and worried about the slow pace of reform, delays in establishing a panel to approve new investment projects and the lack of clarity on the country’s new economic development strategy (DVB, 2016). This highlights the importance of working constantly to improve the investment climate and staying in close contact with investors, keeping them informed about developments. Challenges common to the petroleum and renewables sectors: Lack of data and information for market entry; fragmented institutional and regulatory framework; low levels of electricity access and digitalization; low international oil prices. Challenges in the petroleum sector: Limited supply-industry infrastructure and lack of local engineers; MOGE petroleum sector monopolization and conflicts of interest; limited geological data; complicated taxation; weak government–business communication; challenges in finding local partners; time-consuming licensing procedures; paper-based communication and lack of e-government; production-sharing agreements biased towards participation of large oil companies, excluding smaller ones; frequent changes in legislation; closed downstream market. Challenges in the renewable energy sector: No national target or legislation on renewable energy; no dedicated public agency regulating the sector; lack of business associations; subsidies for grid electricity generated from fossil fuels disadvantage off-grid renewables; access to suitable land; complex mountainous terrain and protected areas as well as political instability in these areas; underdeveloped grid system for large-scale production; lack of data on the renewable-energy resource potential; limited infrastructure for technical support and maintenance; high cost of installing solar panels and wind turbines; disintegrated biofuel production and supply markets; lack of local specialists; no taxation system for renewables; security risks in conflict-prone Kachin, Rakhine and Shan states. Opportunities in the petroleum and renewable energy sectors: Government commitment to reform; advantageous location as part of the Greater Mekong Subregion and ASEAN, close to the Chinese and Indian markets; significant resource base, especially natural gas, hydropower and bioenergy; rapidly rising energy demand in Myanmar and neighbouring countries; high demand for investment in refineries, oil terminals, oil barges and petrol stations; opportunities in retail business; new petroleum and renewable energy laws are underway; abundant semi-skilled labour, and low cost of unskilled labour; low levels of corruption and criminality. Initially, companies may perceive the business climate as unpredictable, but, having entered the market, and having learned and adapted to local conditions, companies experience greater predictability. Opportunities in the petroleum sector: Relatively transparent tender system; equal treatment of investors; government experience and capacity; market maturity. Myanmar’s strategic location, with rapidly rising energy demand among hundreds of millions of people in the neighbouring countries and low transportation costs (especially for gas delivery to China, India and Thailand), represents an opportunity to foreign investors. Opportunities in the renewable energy sector: Latecomer advantage; low level of electrification increases cost advantage of off-grid electrification; support from international donors; strong civil society actors are promoting renewable energy development.
Swedish-Norwegian Defence Cooperation: New opportunities?
Having encountered rough seas in recent years, the cooperation now seems to have entered smoother waters.
Quotas – what to expect?
At one level, the effects of quotas may prove to be less impressive than many have hoped – or even feared. But at another, the consequences may be greater than we have been realized.
Swedish–Norwegian Defence Cooperation: New opportunities?
Swedish–Norwegian defence cooperation has encountered rough seas in recent years, but now seems to have entered smoother waters. This is due to both push and pull factors: push because the new security environment has increased the likelihood of a crisis in the Nordic/Baltic region, which would probably involve all Nordic states, irrespective of NATO or EU membership. Pull because of the renewed US engagement in the region, because of the EU incentives for industrial defence cooperation – and because geographical proximity in itself creates possibilities for shared solutions and practices. This Policy Brief focuses on Swedish–Norwegian defence cooperation in the broader Nordic/Baltic context. We begin by reviewing recent developments in Swedish defence policies, and the implications of previous failed joint Swedish–Norwegian projects. We then turn to opportunities that may emerge as a result of the mentioned push and pull factors. These opportunities are to be considered as ideas; they have not been thoroughly discussed and assessed, but may serve as starting points for follow-on debates and explorations.
New era for French exceptionalism?
France still has a deep desire to play a major international role. Will President Macron succeed? In her new book, Senior Research Fellow Pernille Rieker takes a closer look at French foreign policy.