The Rebalance to Asia Under Trump
Attempts to predict the future shape of President Donald Trump’s defence policy in the Asia-Pacific are a challenge, at best. Nevertheless, Patrick Cullen argues that, in contrast to early assumptions that he would initiate a more isolationist defence policy and break with the previous administration’s Rebalance to Asia policy, Trump is more likely to adopt a hawkish – if unpredictable – enforcement of the policy’s key defence objectives. Gauging whether the Trump administration will bring either change from, or continuity with, the military component of the Rebalance to Asia policy will require keeping an eye on each of the policy’s subcategories.
Political change and historical analogies
This article deals with how scholars, policy analysts and activists, striving to make sense of current political change, have turned to history for analogies and ideas for action. While it is encouraging to see the Trump presidency and other instances of upheaval leading to a strengthened interest in history, in academe and public life more generally, there nevertheless is a need to caution against facile appropriations of the historical record and the use of superficial similarity to legitimize political action. I discuss ways of historicizing the present, through some examples of historical analogies applied to the first months of the Trump presidency and other relatively current instances of change. I start with a discussion of historical analogies and concepts, stressing how they can be understood as both first order and second order constructs. Then I discuss the current usage of historical analogies and concepts as both first order and second order constructs, before I conclude.
Your weekly NUPI recap – week 18
A week dedicated to American foreign and security policy has come to an end.
The Bear and the Triangle
What shapes EU policy towards China? This is the topic for NUPI Research Fellow Bjørnar Sverdrup-Thygeson's new article.
Life on the Frontlines of American Diplomacy
The US and North Korea are on the brink of conflict. But what does North Korea really want? Is the country aiming for a new deal with the international community? NUPI has the pleasure of hosting Ambassador Christopher R. Hill, who was Head of the U.S. delegation in the 2005 negotiations for a nuclear deal with North Korea. Through his carreer, Hill has made a huge contribution to peace and diplomacy in some of the world's most vulnerable areas.
Breakfast seminar: American security policy under President Trump
During the first three months of his presidency, Donald Trump’s security policy has diverted from his campaign promises.
Norge, USA og det liberale verdifellesskapet
Trumps delvis anti-liberale politikk setter flere av USAs europeiske allierte, inkludert Norge, i en kinkig posisjon. Én mulig respons er å opptre varsomt, og la de amerikanske institusjonene selv «gjøre jobben» i møte med mer illiberale initiativer fra den nye administrasjonen. Samtidig kan det tenkes at flere av Trumps posisjoner vil modereres i møte med både byråkrati og allierte. Problemet med en slik tilnærming – der Norge står på sidelinjen, og eventuelt tar ad hoc beslutninger om å kritisere - er at det ikke tar utfordringene som de liberale verdiene og institusjonene står overfor seriøst nok. Problemet for verdifellesskapet er tross alt ikke bare Trump, men en internasjonal dreining mot det illiberale i både innenriks- og utenrikspolitikken til land som vi har antatt har vært en del av det samme fellesskapet. Hvor langt er Norge villig til å gå for å forsvare de verdiene som vi definerer oss gjennom utad?
Security in Europe - Polish and Norwegian Perspectives (PISM_NUPI_Bilateral)
The main aim of this collaborative project (PISM and NUPI) is to map the Polish and Norwegian approaches towards various types of security related challenges in the European and regional context....
The bear and the EU-China-US triangle: Transatlantic and Russian influences on EU’s “pivot to Asia”
This article argues that in the case of the EU’s efforts to undertake a “Pivot to Asia”, added explanatory salience can be achieved by recognising firstly the importance of the transatlantic factor and the US’ own rebalance policies. Secondly, based on a model where the USA is regarded as a significant variable in the EU-China relationship, one may more saliently discern the influence of Russia by assessing its impact on the triangular EU-China-US relationship, both directly and indirectly. Addressing these issues in European policymaking, the article will be constituted of two main parts. In the first section, the triangular nature of European foreign policies towards China is introduced, addressing the transatlantic factor in EU-China relations. Based on research on the European policy debates on EU’s Asia policies and the American Pivot to Asia, the section will illustrate the degree to which EU policy initiatives are conceived as playing out on a range from cooperation to competition with the US’ rebalance initiatives. In the second section, the chapter will proceed to investigate a factor that is affecting, although to different degrees, all three corners of the triangular political context in which European China policies are being shaped, namely the effects of recent Russian actions in the Eurasian theatre. The analysis demonstrates how European policymakers struggle to define their place in the EU-China-US triangle. The dynamics of the ongoing Asian power shift highlights the dilemmas for the European continent, as it seeks to balance its relations in a shifting geopolitical landscape.
ExxonMobil & Rosneft: Trump renews the bromance?
Former ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson is secretary of state in the USA. That may ease the tension in the country's relationship with Russia.