NUPI Center for Asia Research

Reinforcing Trust, Evoking Nostalgia and Contrasting China: Japan's Foreign Policy Repertoire and Identity Construction in Myanmar

In the immediate aftermath of the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021, Western countries and the EU condemned the coup, imposed targeted sanctions against military leaders and military-owned companies, and redirected essential humanitarian aid to NGOs. Japan, however, chose to neither align with its democratic allies nor completely suspend its aid. Despite a long and complicated pre-war history and limited engagement after 1988, Japan-Myanmar relations experienced a resurgence between 2012 and 2021. This article contends that one key driving force in contemporary relations is identity construction. Drawing on the literature on relational identity and foreign policy repertoires, the article demonstrates how the discursive statements and embodied practices of a network of Japanese identity entrepreneurs activate, negotiate, and renegotiate the identities of the Japanese Self and its Others. Through an analysis of interviews conducted with elite stakeholders in Myanmar and Japan, the article studies Japan’s constructed identity as an economic great power and post-war development pioneer, peace promoter, and diplomatic mediator. It finds that Japan constructs its identity temporally in terms of nostalgia (natsukashisa) and a longing for a time when Japan was a post-war industrial powerhouse, but also spatially in terms of Japan’s legal, moral, and industrial superiority over other countries involved in Myanmar’s development, in particular vis-à-vis China.

RESOLVED: Japan Should Maintain Investments in Russian Oil and Gas Projects

In this issue of Debating Japan, experts assess Japan’s investments in Russian oil and gas and whether Japan should fully divest from Russian energy.

Vietnam's solar and wind power success: Policy implications for the other ASEAN countries

This study analyzes the factors that have facilitated Vietnam's recent rapid solar and wind power expansion and draws policy insights for other member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). A policy-mix analysis focusing on targets, incentive instruments, enabling regulations, and policy implementation is carried out, informed by semi-structured interviews with 20 Vietnamese experts during the period January–March 2021. A comparative analysis between Vietnam and the other ASEAN countries provides policy insights. Generous feed-in tariffs are found to have been a key driver, with income tax and land lease payment exemptions also being important. The main barriers include a high level of policy uncertainty and an underprepared transmission grid. Vietnam's case indicates that a strong price signal and a supportive investment environment can pave the way for rapid solar and wind power uptake. Another key lesson is that early preparation of transmission systems for solar and wind electricity is needed to maximize the potential for expanding the use of these technologies.

Local and Global Aspects of Coal in the ASEAN Countries

By 2020, coal mining and power generation had been growing in Southeast Asia for decades and were projected to rise to new heights of prominence in regional energy systems, weakening the energy security of all states in the region except Indonesia, jeopardizing the NDCs of the ASEAN states under the Paris Agreement and deepening existing domestic political fault lines. Coal utilization has well-known public health, agricultural, water security and economic consequences, many of which are magnified in Southeast Asia, with its high population density and limited wind and arable land. Paradoxically, the short-sighted focus on affordability imposes significant longer-term economic risks on these states as renewable energy prices fall, while ASEAN markets for such energy sources remain underutilized.

The Role of External Powers in EU–Asia Security Relations

This chapter maps out the changing roles played by the United States, Russia and India as security actors in East Asia, and their influence on EU foreign and security policies in the region. Detailing the waxing and waning of the US’ ‘unipolar moment’, Russia’s military resurgence, and the increasingly assertive balancing acts of India, the chapter reviews the main policy developments implemented by these three actors since 1990 and how their policies converge or diverge with the EU’s approaches across a range of traditional and non-traditional security issues. The chapter concludes that the challenge for the EU is to advance its interests, and augment the effects, of its policies and instruments in Asia considering the potential for collaboration and contestation with the United States, Russia and India, three very different actors that diverge considerably in both strategic intentions and capabilities.

The China-Europe Freight Train and the War in Ukraine:Triumph and Tribulations in Transcontinental Shipping

In this policy brief, Professor Xiangming Chen analyzes the China-Europe Freight Train (CEFT), the flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project, and evaluates its extensiveness, efficiency and adaptability based on recent geopolitical developments, in particular the War in Ukraine.

Kina sikter mot toppen

A presentation of China's new Five-year plan. Part of NUPI's "Hvor hender det?" series.

More bark than bite? Assessing China’s coercive measures in Scandinavia

Amid growing concern about Chinese coercion, this article examines the extent to which Beijing has resorted to such measures in Scandinavia based on case studies of Denmark and Sweden. Distinguishing between the actual use of and threats of using coercive measures, the article finds few instances of coercion even if Chinese authorities have repeatedly warned of negative consequences of violating China’s interests in the case of Sweden, while frequently expressing anger and frustration at perceived provocations by the Danish government or NGOs. However, as relations between Norway and China have also recently deteriorated, the risks of Norway being subjected to Chinese coercion should be assessed in a broader geographical context given an increasing number of reported cases from other regions.

China’s coercive diplomacy: Why it’s on the rise and what it means for Scandinavia

Amid a wider deterioration of relations between China and the West since around 2018, the Chinese government has stepped up its use of economic coercion and other types of non-military coercive measures, targeting Western countries that challenge its core interests. The observed change is distinctive in both quantitative and qualitative terms as the Chinese authorities have not only employed coercive measures more frequently, but also across a wider set of policy objectives than previously. Using a revised dataset, the Brief offers new insights into these development trends, demonstrating how they are driven primarily by perceived violations of China’s expanding development interests. The Brief discusses the findings in the specific context of the Scandinavian countries which have also found themselves on the receiving end of China’s coercive diplomacy.

The Economics of Strategic Stability in US-China relations

The economic aspects of strategic stability tend to come second place in the study of US-China relations. For good reason, scholars have focussed on the military aspects of strategic stability, including the role of emerging technology and cyber capabilities, in this most important geopolitical relationship. Yet, considering the ongoing War on Ukraine, as well as tensions over Taiwan, it is worthwhile considering the effect coercive economic tools such as tariffs, sanctions and embargoes, can have on wider strategic stability.

Evolving Japan–NATO Relations in the Leadup to the Madrid Summit

In response to growing security concerns in East Asia, Japan has increased its engagement with NATO at both the organisational and individual member-state level.

The Russia-Ukraine Crisis and Japan’s Energy Dilemma

The war in Ukraine is a game changer not only disrupting financial markets and human migration patterns but also the global energy landscape. As European countries announce their plans to phase out and divert energy imports from Russia, the question of how to make up the difference looms large. One solution is to increase energy independence through a greater shift to more renewables. In East Asia, Japan also finds itself in a heightened energy dilemma. A resource poor island nation with one of the lowest energy self-sufficiency rates in the OECD of 11.2 per cent in 2020, Japan is particularly vulnerable to shocks in global energy markets. With EU states’ energy policies in flux after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion, it is uncertain if Japanese policymakers and voters are committed to shifting away from nuclear power and redoubling efforts to reduce fossil fuel usage.

Japan ruster opp

(This op-ed is in Norwegian): Japan kan få det tredje største forsvarsbudsjettet i verden, skriver Wrenn Yennie Lindgren og Per Erik Solli i denne DN-kronikken.

Kina balanserer på en tynn line

Kronikk om Kinas balansegang knyttet til krigen i Ukraina.

Norge som mål for utenlandske investeringer: Trender og forklaringer

Utenlandske investeringer er en viktig del av økonomien i mange land. Det gjelder også Norge, hvor utenlandskontrollerte foretak sysselsetter 21 prosent av arbeidstakerne i privat næringsliv. Samtidig vet vi at strømmene av investeringer internasjonalt er i endring, med vekst i aktiviteten fra stater som tidligere har investert lite utenlands. Det gjelder spesielt Kina, men også India, Russland og noen andre ikke-tradisjonelle investorland. I denne artikkelen studerer vi hvordan Norges posisjon som destinasjon for investeringer endrer seg. Vi diskuterer utviklingen i lys av etablerte teorier innen samfunnsøkonomi og statsvitenskap.

Chinese digi-tech politics: Steering growth, spurring innovation, and reinforcing control

China is a growing digital technology (digi-tech) power and a leading provider of digi-tech resources internationally. China’s digi-tech growth is helping to create opportunities in other and developing countries, but it also stirring concern regarding digital security and the safeguarding of individual freedoms. Digi-tech is at the heart of the major power rivalry playing out between China and the USA. In this brief, we study the key drivers and main implications of Chinese digi-tech politics while also considering Norwegian digi-tech interests.

Conventional Counterforce Dilemmas: South Korea's Deterrence Strategy and Stability on the Korean Peninsula

In response to North Korea's nuclear weapons program, South Korea is quietly pursuing an independent conventional counterforce and countervalue strategy. This strategy is unique. Few, if any, nonnuclear states have sought to rely on advanced conventional capabilities to deter a nuclear-armed adversary. Why is South Korea pursuing a conventional counterforce and countervalue strategy, and what could its impact be on strategic stability on the Korean Peninsula? South Korea's approach should be understood as both a short- and long-term hedge against U.S. abandonment. Its deterrent effect, no matter how uncertain, acts as a short-term stopgap if the United States abandons South Korea. Over the long term, capabilities such as advanced ballistic and cruise missiles bolster South Korea's nuclear latency. At the same time, we highlight that the strategy poses numerous technological and operational difficulties and has negative implications for arms race and crisis stability. Given South Korea's approach and North Korea's response, disarmament efforts focused purely on the bilateral U.S.–North Korea relationship will not succeed. Rather, any agreement will now need to address the growing gap in the conventional balance of forces on the Korean Peninsula.

The Nordic shift: China’s uphill battle for public approval in northern Europe

A recent survey shows that even the champions of free trade in Europe’s high north are reassessing their approach to Chinese investment.

Utenlandske direkteinvesteringer og eierskap i Norge

Foreign investment is an important component of the economy of many countries. This is the case for Norway too, where foreign-controlled enterprises employ 21 percent of the workers in the (private) business sectors. We know that foreign investment flows are changing, with increased activity from countries that have traditionally invested little abroad. This is true for China, especially, but also for India, Russia, and some other non-traditional investor countries. In this article, we study how Norway’s position as a destination for investment is changing. We discuss the developments in relation to established theories within economics and political science.

Utenlandsk eierskap i eiendom i Norge: informasjonskilder og mulige oversikter

The report reviews central sources to information about foreign ownership in real estate in Norway. It describes possible steps for improving the overview of such ownership interests.

Veier til informasjon om utenlandsk eierskap i Norge: kilder og metoder

The report reviews central sources to information about foreign ownership in Norway, mainly ownership control and ownership shares in enterprises. The report also provides assessments of some international sources and information tools, and discusses possible steps for improving the overview of ownership interests in Norway.

WIN-WIN! with ODA-man: legitimizing development assistance policy in Japan

Official development assistance (ODA) constitutes one of Japan’s most important foreign policy instruments as it builds Japan’s global network and supports allies in the Southeast Asian region and beyond. In the context of a rising China and an increasingly severe fiscal and demographic situation at home, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) promulgated a domestic-oriented legitimation campaign featuring a popular anime character rebranded as ‘ODA-man’ to increase public understanding of and support for Japan’s ODA. Drawing on interpretivist analysis of performances at a development cooperation promotion festival, anime videos on the MOFA YouTube channel and interviews and examining the use of rhetorical strategies, this article provides an in-depth study of the promotion of one of the central instruments in Japan’s foreign policy repertoire. Though he comes off as goofy and benign, ODA-man’s messages are serious ones that reproduce dominant economic and security narratives about Japan and the world. Analysis points to both innovation and path dependency in Japan’s foreign policy repertoire; while ODA-man may be new the story he is telling, and the way that he is performing it, is very much familiar. The article further illuminates important trends in the public legitimation of foreign policy in Japan.

Japan and Arctic Security

This chapter focuses on what Arctic security means to Japan and how Japan handles the security dimension in its three-spoke approach to the Arctic, involving economic, political, and scientific factors. The chapter begins by addressing the changing understandings of what Arctic security entails. What are the historic and contemporary understandings of Arctic security? It then embarks on a discussion of Japan’s approach to the Arctic demonstrating how security fits in at traditional and nontraditional and national and international levels. How does Japan convey its position as a non-Arctic state concerned about security developments in the Arctic? Analysis is based on recent statements and activities stemming from Japan’s official Arctic Policy (2015), as well as developments in the political, research, and business sectors since 2008. The chapter concludes that, while traditional security issues in the Arctic are not the explicit framing of Japan’s Arctic policy and engagement, they do play an implicit role both on paper and in practice.

Norway: Crisis highlights normality in bilateral relations with China

The chapter describes the situation in Norway and is part of a larger report on China’s relations to European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The situation in Norway has been characterized by less noise and controversy than what has been the case in several other countries. China has contributed with protective equipment to Norway, by way of both commercial and aid-related deliveries. China’s role in the pandemic has been debated in Norway too, and Chinese representatives have used both traditional and social media to counter criticism and promote their views.

China in the Sustainable Development Agenda: Contributions to health and education

China is scaling up its investments in health and education, making significant contributions to the UN 2030 Agenda and related Sustainable Development Goals. Domestically, China is working to modernize its entire health care system, improve mandatory and additional education, and foster elite academic institutions. Internationally, China is increasing both its bilateral and multilateral support. Looking beyond 2020, the coronavirus crisis is not likely to change this overall trajectory, but China may increase its investment in both domestic and international health and disease prevention systems.

China in the Sustainable Development Agenda: Key environmental issues and responses

China is dealing with very serious pollution levels and the unsustainable use of many natural resources. Environmental issues, concerning both air, ground, and ocean, have gained increasing recognition in Chinese domestic politics, and China is stepping into more active roles in international environmental governance. By committing to international agreements but insisting on differentiated responsibilities and voluntary contributions, China is taking something of a middle position between developing countries and many higher-income states.

China in the Sustainable Development Agenda: Key Institutions for International Engagement

China has a large and expansive network of actors working on Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) activities. This report maps the foremost key Chinese actors and institutions with an orientation towards international activities.

China’s role in the Sustainable Development Agenda: Considerations for Norway

China’s role as an international development actor is growing, with real and increasing potential to impact Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). On some issues, Chinese initiatives align well with Norwegian interests, but China’s approach to development also diverges on some key practices and norms. While Chinese international efforts meet mixed reactions, Norway should stake out its own course for when and how to engage with China over SDGs.

From careful participant to budding partner: China in the Sustainable Development Agenda

China is an increasingly active player in the Sustainable Development Agenda. It has staked out a national Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) plan that stresses comprehensive development with serious consideration to environmental issues. Internationally, China’s development role is growing, manifested through increasing trade, aid, and investment and a stronger position within many international organizations. China uses SDG-related activities to promote and align its domestic and international development interests.

A Norwegian perspective on Nordic-China Cooperation

This chapter addresses opportunities and challenges concerning Nordic-China cooperation, seen from Norwegian perspectives. With basis in the overall Norway-China relations, the chapter points to areas where joint activity is already quite dynamic and where many Norwegian actors welcome more Nordic-China cooperation. Academic and business promotion activities seem especially promising. However, the chapter is also very clear on the limitations of furthering the joint activity, not least in the political arena, where there is no interest in replacing activities that are currently national or bilateral in nature with something jointly Nordic.

Østasiatiske giganter i handelskrig

Why would Japan and South Korea risk large economic losses and weakening security relations in such a precarious time?

The identity politics driving the Japan–South Korea trade war

Why and how are identity politics a key driver in the Japan-South Korea trade war?

Addressing Butterfly Questions: The Planet, Plastic Pollution and Policy Pathways at Japan's G20

In its fifth year, the 2019 G20 Interfaith Forumgathered outside of Tokyo to discuss an ambitious agenda organized under the triple-P thematic of Peace, People and Planet: Pathways Forward. While each of these broad themes guided discussions both in panels and plenaries, from the Forum’s outset it became clear that a reoccurring focus would be the importance of protecting the planet in order to support its people and to promote peace. The data presented at the Forum’s inception plenary was too compelling to ignore: according to multiple speakers, planet degradation has costed approximately $US11 trillion to date. But beyond the financial aspect, the environmental and ethical considerations that go into evaluating why this is a reality were at the core of the discussions among the Forum’s interfaithleaders. This focus instigated a number of compelling “butterfly questions” where participants probed and reflected on the implicit human aspect of environmental degradation. In their discussion, speakers often referenced the postwar tale of former Japanese Emperor Hirohito’s lamentation of no longer seeing butterflies in his imperial garden due to environmental degradation. Taking this issue up with Japan’s political leadership at the time, Hirohito instigated the establishment of an environmental program to address pollution in Tokyo, leading to great results and the return of butterflies to his city garden. But in today’s multipolar system, responding to the magnitude and pace of the transnational issues of pollution and climate change on a global scale at a time when the multilateral system is perceived to be eroding seems simultaneously dire, daunting and difficult. And the likelihood of creating an environment where butterflies would like to return seems increasingly fleeting.

China's Realism in the Middle East

While the United States is seeking to adopt a lower profile in the Middle East, China's interests in the region is expanding. This raises questions about the future of China's strategy towards the region. Will China seize the opportunity to establish a heavy military presence, cultivate client states, build alliances and ultimately replace the US as the regional hegemon? In this article, we argue that there is little reason to expect any major shift in China’s strategy. Beijing will seek to expand its influence, but in a less forward way than the US, adopting more subtle means and a more flexible policy towards its partners. China’s foreign and security policy in the Middle East will probably remain pragmatic and restrained. Unlike the United States, China's foreign policy is not based on values and ideology, but firmly on realpolitik principles and considerations of interests.

Election 2019: Empowering women, without women?

Japan’s government has put women’s empowerment high on its agenda – but women remain poorly represented in politics, and that shows few signs of changing, writes Wrenn Yennie Lindgren in this op-ed.

Derfor skal vi bry oss om G20-toppmøtet i Japan

(Available in Norwegian only): Utfordringene knyttet til frihandel og markedstilgang er svært viktige for Norge. Det vil de fortsette å være når G20 forflytter seg til Riyadh i 2020, skriver Wrenn Yennie Lindgren i denne kronikken.

The G20 Comes to Japan: Making Sense of the Osaka Agenda

How do the outcomes of the G-20’s eight engagement groups factor into this year’s Osaka Summit?

Political values in Norway’s relations with China: Standing ground or giving in?

The six-year freeze in bilateral political relations following the award of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize makes Norway an interesting case study of political values in relations with China. The big picture, however, is that Norway still fits into the pattern of many other European countries. While political values feature prominently in Norway’s general foreign policy, explicit government level criticism of China is rare, and the avenues for official discussions on values-laden issues are largely limited to closed settings.

China and Multilateral Development Banks: Positions, Motivations, Ambitions

The evolving relationships between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the major multilateral development banks (MDBs) reflect China’s evolution as a prospering developing country and a major power. Why has China been nurturing strong interests towards MDBs? This report focuses on changing positions, motivations, and ambitions concerning China and multilateral development banking.

Chinese belts and roads stir mixed reactions in Europe

European governments generally welcome Chinese contributions to infrastructure and development. Many actors inside and outside the EU hope to see countries and markets along the proposed belts and roads prosper. They support China’s efforts to strengthen connectivity and trade. But most, if not all, keep asking China to clarify its plans and ambitions.

China and Nordic Diplomacy

This book seeks to explore Nordic approaches to China and the idea of sub-regional diplomacy. China’s multi-tiered approach to Europe can be seen vividly in the Nordic sub-region, which has been engaging Beijing through a variety of different means corresponding to the political and economic structures found in the Nordic states. In some areas, a specific Nordic approach can be observed, including areas related to economic cooperation, Arctic diplomacy and institution-building. However, the Nordic states also have widely differing historical experiences with China leading up to the present day. Each of the Nordic states has also had to balance their China relations with those of the EU and other major players such as the US. With case studies on the EU, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, this volume addresses the question of a specifically Nordic approach to Chinese relations. It explores not only the contributions of the Nordics to China relations, but also adds to the greater study of sub-regional approaches to Chinese diplomacy at a time when Sino-European relations are arguably at their most complex. This book will be of much interest to students and researchers of Chinese politics, Nordic politics, diplomacy and IR in general.

The Duty of Care for Citizens Abroad: Security and Responsibility in the In Amenas and Fukushima Crises

This article analyses the state’s duty of care (DoC) for citizens who fall victim to unforeseen catastrophic or violent events abroad. The DoC highlights the challenges, dynamics and relations involved in diplomatic practice that is aimed at protecting citizens outside of state borders and where traditional security concepts have little relevance. How has a globalized, more insecure world — with shifting relations and responsibilities among states, their subordinates and other carers — affected the provision of DoC? How do governments and private actors act on the DoC during and after crises? To illustrate, the article draws on the terrorist attack at a gas facility in Algeria in 2013 and the nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011, focusing particularly on the Norwegian framework and approach to protecting citizens abroad. In both crises, implementing the DoC required practical skills and measures beyond traditional diplomacy and institutionalized crisis mechanisms.

Review: Japan’s Security Renaissance: New policies and politics for the twenty-first century, By Andrew Oros (New York: Columbia University Press...

En liten korrigering om "militarisering"

(Available in Norwegian only): Klassekampens reportasje om USA, alliansepolitikk og Øst-Asia på tirsdag var veldig interessant, god og viktig. Det kan imidlertid være på sin plass å moderere utsagnene om Japan, skriver forfatterne i dette leserinnlegget i Klassekampen.

China's Cyber Sovereignty

This policy brief analyses China’s ambitions for imposing and strengthening the concept of cyber sovereignty in international negotiations on topics related to cybersecurity and Internet governance (IG). The presentation proceeds through four interconnected steps: 1. brief introduction and background to the Chinese ‘cyber sovereignty’ concept. 2. China’s role in defining, developing, and promoting this concept in international politics. 3. international responses to the Chinese use of the concept of cyber sovereignty, and how this should be seen in conjunction with current trends in Chinese foreign-policy strategies. 4. the use of cyber sovereignty in diplomacy, and how China uses this concept to counter Western dominance in cyberspace. Thus, the policy brief offers a brief examination of how the Chinese idea of state sovereignty in cyberspace influences how China positions itself in international negotiations with regard to issues such as security, economy and trade, and soft power (diplomacy/governance).

Et valg uten alternativer

(Norwegian only): Japans LDP er ikke et spesielt populært parti, så hvorfor fikk de såpass stor valgoppslutning? spør Wrenn Y. Lingren og Petter Lindgren i denne Klassekampen-kronikken.

Identity Politics and the East China Sea: China as Japan's 'Other'

This article contributes to the relational IR literature on identity politics and Sino-Japanese relations. Theoretically, we develop Rumelili's 2004 framework for studying modes of differentiation by incorporating the sectoral characteristics of key discourse signs. Empirically, we apply this framework to the construction of Self and Other in the official Japanese security discourse regarding the Senkaku Islands dispute from 2010–2014, a period of dispute climax that is meaningful for studying the (re)production of Japan's understanding of China. The inclusiveness of the discourse signs that Japan uses to construct China possibly opens up for a positive evolution of Sino-Japanese relations, as there is space for progress if China's behavior—and Japan's interpretation of it—proves to be more peaceful, transparent, and law-abiding. The findings also suggest, however, that the strong sense of superiority in Japan (and China) vis-à-vis a subordinate Other may not bode well for Sino-Japanese relations.

Navigation, circumvention and brokerage: the tricks of the trade of developing NGOs in China

Chinese NGOs face strong coercive pressures and limitations yet have still emerged as notable actors in several issue areas. This article studies why and explains how a group of NGOs working on AIDS-related issues have been able to progress into relatively large and vibrant operations. It documents how NGO leaders have learned to navigate opportunities and risks, circumvent formal restrictions and broker pragmatic and largely informal arrangements that have enabled their organizations to grow and advance within China's authoritarian settings. The article contributes to the literature on Chinese NGO development and new institutionalism theory, and introduces a framework for studying NGOs based on their organizational forms and activities.

Nordens plass i Kinas nye æra?

Knapt året etter at norske myndigheter er ute av kineserens fryseboks har Xi Jinping nylig erklært til den 19 partikongressen at Kina er på vei inn i en ny epoke. Denne tredje epoken siden folkerepublikkens grunnleggelse, vil være den hvor Kina gjeninntar sin posisjon som global stormakt. Alle trender peker mot at verdens største økonomi snart vil være ikke-vestlig og ikke-demokratisk, for første gang siden Karl Johan var brödrafolkens konung. Hvordan har de nordiske land forholdt seg til denne historiske omskiftningen, og hvilke ringvirkninger ligger i vente for Norden i den nye kinesiske æra?

Transatlantic Troubles and the EU’s Pivot Toward Asia

The G20 Summit in Hamburg demonstrated that the geopolitical landscape is rapidly changing. The U.S. is no longer the only leader—it has to share the scene with China, Europe, and Russia, among others. In light of the changing landscape, the EU and China have begun to redefine their relationship. For years, Europe has sought to find the best way to adjust to the rise of China and growth in Asia. A key factor in the EU’s ties to China was always its relationship with the United States. However, President Donald Trump has brought new uncertainties to the transatlantic alliance. How will this affect the European “Pivot to Asia?”

The bear and the EU-China-US triangle: Transatlantic and Russian influences on EU’s “pivot to Asia”

This article argues that in the case of the EU’s efforts to undertake a “Pivot to Asia”, added explanatory salience can be achieved by recognising firstly the importance of the transatlantic factor and the US’ own rebalance policies. Secondly, based on a model where the USA is regarded as a significant variable in the EU-China relationship, one may more saliently discern the influence of Russia by assessing its impact on the triangular EU-China-US relationship, both directly and indirectly. Addressing these issues in European policymaking, the article will be constituted of two main parts. In the first section, the triangular nature of European foreign policies towards China is introduced, addressing the transatlantic factor in EU-China relations. Based on research on the European policy debates on EU’s Asia policies and the American Pivot to Asia, the section will illustrate the degree to which EU policy initiatives are conceived as playing out on a range from cooperation to competition with the US’ rebalance initiatives. In the second section, the chapter will proceed to investigate a factor that is affecting, although to different degrees, all three corners of the triangular political context in which European China policies are being shaped, namely the effects of recent Russian actions in the Eurasian theatre. The analysis demonstrates how European policymakers struggle to define their place in the EU-China-US triangle. The dynamics of the ongoing Asian power shift highlights the dilemmas for the European continent, as it seeks to balance its relations in a shifting geopolitical landscape.

The Chinese story: Historical narratives as a tool in China’s Africa policy

The rise of China as a key actor on the African continent not only challenges the Western dominance in economic and political terms, Beijing is increasingly also offering a challenge on a different level, by contesting the Eurocentric history that has underpinned the West’s policies towards African countries throughout the modern era. In order to bolster the Sino-African relationship, this article argues that Beijing is propagating towards African publics a range of historical narratives about African history and the Sino-African relationship. Developing and testing a theoretical framework for analysing these historical narratives, the research finds that this Chinese history of Africa represents China’s recent actions on the African continent as incarnations of a long historical tradition of friendship and anti-colonial support, thus serving the role of legitimizing Chinese policies as well as delegitimizing Western powers’ economic and political strategies.

Chinese Investments in Norway: A Typical Case Despite Special Circumstances

Chinese investments in Norway have increased, and remain moderate but substantial compared with the situation in Europe overall. The Norwegian case is both typical and somewhat unique. Transactions made in the 2000s coincided with China’s boom in outbound natural resource- and energy-related investments. Subsequent deals have demonstrated an increasing interest in specialized and high-tech companies. There has been diversification among actors, but state-owned enterprises remain the main source. Moreover, the debate surrounding Chinese investments in Norway has been limited and largely positive. What makes Norway a special case is the six-year freeze of bilateral political affairs that followed the Nobel Peace Prize in 2010. Although the suppression of some investor interests and opportunities is to be expected, several major investments were completed during this period despite the dysfunctional political ties. After the normalization of bilateral relations in December of 2016, actors on both sides are signaling increased economic interest and negotiations for a bilateral Free Trade Agreement are back on track.

Kampen om idemessigé forklaringer på japansk sikkerhetspolitikk: Kina i Japans identitetskonstruksjon

China's New Development Bank and Infrastructure-led Growth

In view of China’s recent launch of several new development banks (AIIB, OBOR, NDB) with a central focus on infrastructure, this NUPI Brief takes a look at how China’s infrastructure projects have fared both at home and abroad in the past. It asks the question: Does economic growth, boosted by infrastructure investment, necessarily benefit development? Admitting that infrastructure has played a crucial role in China’s development, as well as contributed to the changes in other developing countries, this brief cautions against several potential economic risks. To be more specific, three issues are highlighted: first, low usage and low profitability; second, debt and broken contracts; third, favouritism towards state-owned companies.

China’s Political Priorities in the Nordic Countries: from technology to core interests

Chinese policymakers have identified a number of priorities that motivate them to observe and interact with the Nordic countries. While one can assume that the Nordic countries appear far from frequently on China’s foreign policy agenda, they have unique competences and are open to increased engagement with China. Moreover, they are perceived as being easy to deal with and have become important partners in Beijing’s effort to forge closer ties with governments across the globe. This Policy Brief is based on the author’s report, China’s political priorities in the Nordic countries, published by FOI in 2014. The report focuses on China’s political priorities in the five Nordic countries during 2007-2013. It is based on an analysis of official statements, academic papers and reports from think-tanks, as well as interviews conducted with Chinese diplomats and Nordic officials and scholars in the Nordic capitals during the autumn of 2013. The author draws the conclusion that China’s overarching Nordicwide priorities include four main areas: to utilise the Nordic region as a sounding board and door opener; to acquire technology and know-how; to promote China’s core interests; and to improve perceptions of China.

“For Every Action...” The American pivot to Asia and fragmented European responses

In this two-part paper, Thomas Wright and Will Moreland respond to an assessment of Europe's reaction to the U.S. rebalance to Asia by Bjørnar Sverdrup-Thygeson, Marc Lanteigne, and Ulf Sverdrup of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Download the full report here for a complete set of recommendations and detailed analysis. In 2011, U.S. President Barack Obama declared an American strategic shift towards the Asia-Pacific—what would colloquially be known as the “pivot to Asia”—with the words “Here, we see the future.” For the American allies on the opposite end of the Eurasian continent, this announcement was a source of consternation. Was Europe to be left in the past? In the first part of this paper, Bjørnar Sverdrup-Thygeson, Marc Lanteigne, and Ulf Sverdrup of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) consider Europe's response to the pivot. They note that while the U.S. pivot to Asia has been the catalyst for a European pivot, the response has not been coherent among European governments. Instead, they oscillate between four distinct Asia policy options based on: formal cooperation with the United States; coordination with Washington in which European "soft power" complements U.S. leadership; co-existence with an "independent" European position; or competition and radical political realignment. The first part concludes by arguing that European Union governments must decide whether to align, compete, or find some sort of middle path; the authors anticipate that a combination of the coordination and co-existence policy options will define any potential coherent European response. The authors caution that Europe cannot enter the Asian century on American terms and should thus instead capitalize on Europe's comparative advantages stemming from economic and "soft" power. In the second part of the paper, Thomas Wright and Will Moreland of Brookings respond. They disagree that Europe has been "left in the past" by the American pivot, stressing that there is little evidence that the pivot to Asia has resulted in the United States doing less on security in Europe than its European partners want it to do. They also warn of the potential repercussions of a prioritization of economic incentives over security interests in the region. As Chinese financial clout grows and Europe’s economic recovery continues to stagnate, there is the concern that the need for a good trade or investment deal with Beijing would outweigh the ambition to craft a collective EU commitment to maintaining the post-World War II order in Asia—a system from which both the United States and Europe have benefited in terms of security and economic prosperity. Finally, they look at the spectrum between the coordination and co-existence policy options using the example of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Wright and Moreland conclude with several general recommendations for transatlantic cooperation in Asia. For one, the United States should not expend its political capital in ultimately counterproductive efforts to remove all daylight between U.S. and European strategies in Asia. Such an approach would inevitably result in forcing Europe to choose between amiable Euro-American relations and its economic relations with China. The United States should also support reforms of existing international institutions. Although segments of the United States—most importantly in the U.S. Senate—would prefer rising powers simply conform to current norms and institutions, this approach is in dangerous ignorance of the realities of changing global power dynamics. Finally, to be effective, U.S. policy must focus more on sharing a strategy rather than sharing a burden.

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After nearly 70 years of distant relations, security ties between NATO and Japan are flourishing. A number of important initiatives have recently been adopted, including high-level political dialogues, joint military training, and cooperation in science, technology, and cyber security. This article considers recent developments in NATO-Japan relations and in particular their origins, drivers and implications.

The Abe Legacy

With the terrible assassination of former Prime minister of Japan, Abe Shinzo, an important, but not always uncontroversial, political era in Japan is over. As the longest serving Prime minster, he leaves an important legacy in Japanese politics, but also in relation to the role he wanted Japan to play on the global scene. Based on the 99th Stockholm Seminar on Japan, two invited experts, Dr. Wrenn Yennie Lindgren and Dr. Richard Nakamura, share their views on the international political, as well as economic implications of the passing of Abe in this policy brief.

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Asia-Arctic Diplomacy a Decade Later: What has changed?

Ten years ago, five Asian states – China, India, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea – joined the Arctic Council as observers. This article discusses how the Asia-Arctic Five’s policies policies and priorities have evolved over the past decade and what their hopes are for the incoming Norwegian chairmanship of the Council.