Event

The report “Myanmar: A Political Economy Analysis” was just published, and at this seminar Kristian Stokke and Roman Vakulchuk will present the main findings of this report. What are the main political and economic trends and risks to Myanmar's future development path? Myanmar may for a long time remain in a transitional state with an uncertain future. After a series of political and economic liberalization reforms from 2011 onwards, the country's political trajectory remains open-ended, although the most plausible scenario remains a continued slow democratization process.

Knut Østby who is the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator and UNDP representative in Myanmar, will then discuss the complex political situation in the country, touching upon the main challenges to the current peace process, democratic transition and economic transformation and response to the crisis in Rakhine State. He will focus on the role of international actors in Myanmar, including the UN, and their contribution to the transformation process.

The presentations will be followed by a Q&A session.

The event will be chaired by Indra Øverland, Research Professor at NUPI.

Knut Østby has extensive experience in development, human rights and humanitarian affairs from 17 countries and has served as United Nations Resident Coordinator for more than 11 years including in Timor Leste since 2013. Prior to that, he was United Nations Resident Coordinator in Fiji and nine other Pacific countries, and before that in Iran.

Kristian Stokke is a Professor at the University of Oslo, in the Department of Sociology and Human Geography. His research interests are political geography with focus on democratization and conflict transformation in the Global South, the role of civil society organizations and social movements in substantive democratization and peace. His empirical research focus on Burma/Myanmar, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Nepal and South Africa.

Roman Vakulchuk is a Senior Research Fellow at NUPI. His main geographical specialization is countries of Central Asia and Southeast Asia including Myanmar. He publishes on economic transition and integration, climate change, trade, infrastructure and transport, business climate and business culture, as well as state capitalism in emerging markets.

Indra Øverland is Research Professor and Head of the Energy Program at NUPI. He started working on Southeast Asia as a student in 1992, and has since worked as a long-term political observer in Cambodia and done field-based research in Indonesia and Myanmar. He was also responsible for NUPI’s part of the project ASEAN Energy Market Integration, carried out in cooperation with Chulalongkorn University and other partners in the region.

Related publications

Publications

February 6, 2018

Publications

Report

February 6, 2018

Roman Vakulchuk, Indra Overland

Myanmar: A Political Economy Analysis

Myanmar may for a long time remain in a transitional state with an uncertain future. After a series of political and economic liberalization reforms from 2011 onwards, Myanmar’s political trajectory remains open-ended, although the most plausible scenario remains a continued slow democratization process. The democratic opening has been driven largely by the interest of the military rulers in changing Myanmar’s relations with Western states and thereby gaining leverage vis-à-vis China. Continued military influence, persistent capacity problems in political parties and parliamentary politics, weak channels of political representation and limited administrative capacity give rise to critical questions about the substance of democratization and economic development in Myanmar. The country’s informal economy is one of the largest in the world and is upheld by informal elite pacts that were formed in the military era, often involving high-ranking officers and crony companies. Along with a high level of corruption and lack of redistributive mechanisms the continuing cronyism hinders inclusive growth. If these economic structures persist, social and ethnic conflicts may intensify and progress towards further democratization stall. Despite this, foreign direct investments in resource extraction and other sectors have been on the rise since 2011 and are likely to continue. Myanmar is also ranked as the world’s second-most vulnerable country to climate change. The government needs a better understanding of climate change and its effects – both its direct impacts on Myanmar and its indirect impacts via neighbouring countries such as Bangladesh. As Myanmar remains at a crossroads, smart external assistance may have greater long-term impact in Myanmar than in other recipient countries where the situation is less volatile. However, donors may also become increasingly frustrated and reduce their assistance because of the ongoing Rohingya crisis and because of the limited local capacity to absorb international assistance.

• Economic growth
• Development policy

• Economic growth
• Development policy