Jakub M. Godzimirski

The Political Economy of Russian Aluminium. Between the Dual State and Global Markets

This book addresses how the progress of the Russian aluminium industry, which has developed into an important global actor, has been influenced by the interaction of global market forces and the evolution of the Russian political system. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian aluminium producers needed to adapt to changing framework conditions, both with regards to the global aluminium market and in Russia. Examining the most important changes in the organization of the global aluminium trade – the reorganization and consolidation of Russian aluminium industry and its ‘oligarchization’ – Godzimirski charts the evolution of the relationship between political and economic power in Russia, and the impact that this development has had on survival and adaptation strategies of key aluminium players in the country.

NATO and Russia: Spiral of distrust

This book presents a cutting-edge assessment of NATO's collective defence strategies in the immediate aftermath of the July 2016 NATO Warsaw Summit. Collective defence and deterrence came back on the agenda at the 2014 Wales Summit following the Russian annexation of Crimea, and was in many respects a game changer for NATO. The Warsaw Summit was a follow-up and operationalization of the Wales Summit, as well as adding further initiatives to the agenda. But is NATO delivering? This book provides a thorough assessment of the on-going debates and discussions taking place within and outside of NATO in Europe and North America. In its return to deterrence, NATO is confronted with challenges relating to strategic thinking, capability development, and the role of nuclear weapons. It has also raised questions about the future prospects for NATO membership for countries such as Sweden and Finland, with broader implications for the security situation in the Baltic region. Central to all this is of course NATO’s relationship with Russia and questions of a new security dilemma, in turning bringing to the fore the challenge of maintaining an appropriate balance between deterrence and dialogue. The chapters in this volume address these questions and provide a much-needed analysis of the results of the NATO Warsaw Summit. This book will be of interest to policymakers and students of NATO, international security, European Politics, security studies and IR in general.

PISM Policy Paper no. 2 (155): Gas Security in the Pipeline — Expectations and Realities

The cooperation between Norway and Poland in the energy sector has recently taken very tangible shape. In 2016, Poland decided to launch the Northern Gate project—a set of gas interconnections aiming to link the Polish gas market with gas deposits on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. With that decision, Poland wants to diversify away from Russia to mitigate energy security and political risks connected with the high level of dependence on one supplier. But in terms of Polish-Norwegian cooperation, the question of security of gas supply that Poland wants to address is accompanied by the question of the security of gas demand, a key concern for gas producers such as Norway. Hence, cooperation in the gas sector examined from those two perspectives may actually bring benefits for both countries and promises of win-win cooperation.

PISM Policy Paper nr 4 (157): Squaring the Circle: Is a Balanced Deterrence and Dialogue Approach toward Russia Workable?

Dialogue between Russia and NATO is indispensable to limit the risk of unintended military confrontation amid increased tension. Without dialogue, Alliance cohesion is also at stake. To develop a balance between deterrence and dialogue, it is necessary to understand how the two actions relate to each other, what lessons the West can learn from the past, and what goals it wants to achieve apart from limiting the risk of confrontation.

EU gas supply security – the power of the importer

The chapter examines how the European Union can exert its market and regulatory power in its relations with key external energy suppliers. The focus is on the EU instrument toolbox and how various policy instruments have been used in relations with the main suppliers of gas to the Union. Due to the centrality of Russia and Norway to the EU’s gas supply and their different ways of relating to the Union in formal and regulatory terms, the chapter focuses on the impact EU market and regulatory power has had on the operations of these two actors. The chapter also presents some general conclusions on the effectiveness of the EU’s use of various policy instruments in relations with external suppliers of energy.

Polen – fra europeisk suksesshistorie til Europas problembarn?

The article examines recent developments in Poland, focusing on the 2015 presidential and parliamentary elections, and their impact on the process of reshaping the political landscape in Poland and its relations with partners. Current developments are situated in the broader historical context, and the 2015 election results are analysed, followed by a discussion of the ongoing political processes. The article concludes with a review of old and new political divisions in the country and how these influence internal political developments and Poland’s relations with the outside world.

Can the Polish shale gas dog still bark? Politics and policy of unconventional hydrocarbons in Poland

Report: GoodGov: Work Together, Govern Better: Polish and Norwegian Cooperation towards More Efficient Security, Energy and Migration Policies

This report presents the main findings of the research project conducted between 2013 and 2016 by the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), with support from the Institute for Political Studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences (ISP PAN). It also maps the project’s achievements, examines its policy relevance and identifies various knowledge gaps revealed during the study that should be addressed by new research. The GoodGov project has revealed important governance-related differences between Poland and Norway. These result from the interaction of various internal and external factors, including historical experience and path dependence, geographical location and the challenges it poses, various types of resources and access to them, institutional solutions and membership in various international organisations and frameworks. The latter, such as the EU and the EEA, are of special note as they set their own governance-related priorities, rules and solutions that have both a direct and indirect bearing on national governance in Poland and Norway. Based on the analysis of available data, this research project found that the governance system in Norway is perceived as more efficient than in Poland. In addition to the factors mentioned above, this may also be linked to the application of domestic learning mechanisms in Norway, where review of governance and learning play an important role and the apparent lack of such mechanisms in Poland. Since Norway ranks systematically higher than Poland in all six key categories assessed within the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) project, one could expect the transfer of governance-related knowledge between Norway and Poland to be a possible means of improving governance in Poland, including in the three fields in focus in this study—security, energy and migration. However, the potential for governance learning seems to be hampered by structural differences between Norway and Poland, by the fact that Poland and Norway are in different categories in at least two of the examined fields (energy and migration), and because Norway has decided to remain outside of the EU while Poland is a fully-fledged member. What complicates the picture even more is that the experimentalist approach to governance learning works better in some fields, such as energy and migration, and is much less present and efficient in other governance fields, such as security. Another factor limiting governance transfer is a visible preference for the application of hierarchical, international means of learning instead of nonhierarchical transnational learning practices among professional equals, which is considered to be far more efficient. All the governance-related challenges and differences notwithstanding, Poland and Norway should seek to closely work together for the sake of governance-related improvements.