Forskningsprosjekt
Support to UN Peace Operations: Ensuring More Effective UN Peace Operations
Arrangementer
Målet med prosjektet er å styrke FNs fredsbevarende operasjoner og andre fredsoperasjonersevne til å tilpasse seg en global orden i endring, og fortsette å bidra til bærekraftig fred. A4P/A4P+ er viktig i denne forbindelse.
Prosjektets mål er å kunne bidra til at FNs kapasitet til å analysere og svare på globale sikkerhetsutfordringer, og evnen til å tilpasse seg en endret global orden forbedres.
I tillegg søker prosjektet å styrke effektiviteten til FNs fredsoperasjoner gjennom anvendt forskning og anbefalinger for politikk på dette feltet, som sammen kan bidra til å møte sentrale utfordringer FN står overfor.
Et viktig fokus vil være sentrale utfordringer FN står overfor, og som er spesielt viktige for Norge. Dette inkluderer strategisk analyse og planlegging, samarbeid med Den afrikanske union (AU) og andre regionale og subregionale aktører, internasjonalt politiarbeid, voldelig ekstremisme og kjønn.
Prosjektet er finansiert av Utenriksdepartementet. Første runde av prosjektet pågikk fra 2017 til 2019. Denne perioden varer fra 2023 til 2026.
- Vil du vite mer om NUPIs forskning på disse temaene? Besøk temasidene våre om fredsoperasjoner og FN
- Se også: Nettverk for forskning på fredsoperasjoners effektivitet (EPON)
Prosjektleder
Deltakere
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Hva er i vente for FNs agenda om kvinner, fred og sikkerhet?
FNs resolusjon om kvinner, fred og sikkerhet fyller 20 år. Men det viktige arbeidet knyttet til dette ser ut til å ha fått noen tilbakeslag de siste årene.
Fire globale skifter endrer FNs fredsoperasjoner
Den globale orden er i endring. Hva skjer så med FNs fredsoperasjoner? Det er hovedspørsmålet i Cedric de Coning og Mateja Peters nye bok.
New book: UN Peace Operations in a Changing Global Order
In this book launch interview, editors Mateja Peter and Cedric de Coning reflect upon findings from their most recent book, identifying four global transformations and their implications for UN peace operations.
PODKAST: Skaper FN fred?
Ifølge Kari Osland er kjempeorganisasjonen fortsatt svært viktig for verden.
WORLD PEACEKEEPING DAY: UN Peacekeeping at 70
UN peacekeeping faces significant challenges and some question whether it can remain relevant, but most countries agree on the importance of the UN as the centrepiece of global governance, and that peacekeeping is its flagship enterprise.
Anbefaler norsk modell til FN
Forrige uke lanserte NUPI og IPI en rapport som konkluderer med at den norskinitierte, flernasjonale rotasjonsordningen for transportfly bør danne modell for hvordan FN generer styrker i fremtiden.
Nye publikasjoner
Gendering Security Sector Reform through Capacity Building? The MINUSMA Specialized Police Team on Crime Scene Management
En viktig del av internasjonal fredsbygging er støtte til reform av sikkerhetssektoren i konfliktrammede stater. Dette gjøres blant annet ved å tilby kapasitetsbygging gjennom innsatser i FNs fredsoperasjoner. Fra 2019 til 2022 sørget et norskledet polititeam for kapasitetsbygging innen åstedsgranskning til maliske sikkerhetsstyrker som en del av FNs fredsbevarende styrker i Mali (MINUSMA). De norske offiserene jobbet med å organisere kurs og som mentorer for de maliske offiserene. Denne artikkelen bruker eksempelet fra MINUSMA til å studere hvordan ekstern støtte til reform kan bidra til å fremme kjønnsperspektiver i sikkerhetssektoren i konfliktrammede land. FNs sikkerhetsrådsresolusjon 1325 og Kvinner, fred og sikkerhetsagendaen oppfordrer FNs medlemsland til å bidra til økt kvinneandel og integrering av kjønnsperspektiver i FNs fredsoperasjoner. Til tross for dette, settes det ikke alltid søkelys på kjønnsperspektivet når slik støtte tilbys. Analysen viser at de norske offiserene arbeidet aktivt for å fremme likestilling og kvinners deltakelse, til tross for at det ikke var en sentral del av prosjektet, og uten at det fantes referanser til resolusjon 1325 eller kvinner eller kjønnsperspektiver i prosjektdokumentet. I stedet viste offiserene til at kvinners deltakelse og likestilling er innlemmet i den «norske måten å jobbe på», samt MINUSMAs mandat som grunnlag for dette arbeidet. Feministisk forskning skiller mellom en tradisjonell og transformerende tilnærming til hvordan en arbeider med kjønn og sikkerhetssektorreform, der en tradisjonell tilnærming innebærer at man jobber innenfor eksisterende strukturer med for eksempel å øke kvinners deltakelse eller for at kvinner skal motta samme type kompetanseheving. En transformerende tilnærming vil derimot innebære at man tar en nærmere titt på disse strukturene, og at man ser på hvordan kvinners roller i sikkerhetssektoren påvirkes av samfunnsmessige, kulturelle og religiøse normer. Artikkelen finner at arbeidet hovedsakelig har lent seg på tradisjonelle forståelser av kjønn, og at mulighetene for kapasitetsbygging til å bidra til dypere endringer i sikkerhetssektoren derfor er begrenset. Funnene tyder dermed videre på at individuelle offiserer kan gjøre mye for å fremme kvinners deltakelse og kjønnsperspektiver, men mer radikal transformasjon av sikkerhetssektoren vil trolig kreve handling på mer strukturelt nivå.
The future of UN peace operations: Principled adaptation through phases of contraction, moderation, and renewal
Denne artikkelen tar for seg fremtiden til FNs fredsoperasjoner gjennom en kompleksitetsteori. På kort sikt må fredsbevaring tilpasse seg konsekvensene av COVID-19-pandemien og slutten på Trumps presidentskap. På mellomlang sikt vil fredsbevaring gå gjennom en fase med usikkerhet og turbulens på grunn av geopolitiske maktforskyvninger. På lang sikt må fredsbevaring tilpasse seg en ny multipolar global orden preget av sameksistens, og et skiftende sikkerhetslandskap formet av blant annet klimaendringer, urbanisering og ny teknologi. Gjennom tre faser med sammentrekning, moderasjon og tilpasning vil FNs fredsbevaring sannsynligvis bli ført med en prinsipiell adaptiv tilnærming, som gjør at den kan tilpasse seg realitetene i øyeblikket og samtidig være seg tro mot sin kjerne og identitet. Som et resultat vil FNs fredsbevaring sannsynligvis forbli et av de mest synlige symbolene på global styring og internasjonalt samarbeid.
UN peace operations in a multipolar order: Building peace through the rule of law and bottom-up approaches
FNs fredsoperasjoner trenger en ny fredsbyggende agenda som anerkjenner både konfliktdrivernes grenseoverskridende natur og den nye multipolare globale orden. En slik agenda vil innebære å forkaste den nåværende tilnærmingen til stabiliseringsoperasjoner, men også å forlate liberal fredsbygging slik vi kjenner det fra den unipolare perioden vi er i ferd med å legge bak oss. En mer realistisk agenda vil innebære at FNs fredsoperasjoner prioriterer rettsstaten og tilnærminger nedenfra og opp, og dermed skaper potensialet for å bli omfavnet av et bredere spekter av medlemsland. I denne artikkelen bringer vi liberal fredsbyggingskritikk inn i en diskusjon om den globale orden. Mens liberal fredsbyggingskritikk er forankret i nedenfra og opp-problematisering av internasjonale intervensjoner og viser hva slags fredsbygging som er ønskelig, avslører debattene om den globale ordrens multipolare karakter ovenfra og ned-begrensninger for hva slags fredsbygging som er mulig.
Performance of Peace Operations
Hvordan kan vi og bør vi måle fredsoperasjoners effektivitet? Dette var et av temaene på det årlige Challenges Forum 2020 hvor NUPI var med-arrangør. Fredsoperasjoner er under press for å øke operasjonenes effektivitet og mandatoppnåelse, men møter samtidig flere utfordringer som budsjettkutt og Covid-19. Denne bakgrunnsrapporten ser på nyere forskning angående fredsoperasjoners effektivitet og FNs nye initiativer for intern evaluering og datahåndtering.
Security Council Resolution 1325 at 20: What Next for the Women Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda?
Dette notatet gjør opp status for hva som har blitt oppnådd innenfor Kvinner, Fred og Sikkerhets-agendaen (KFS) siden sikkerhetsrådsresolusjon 1325 ble vedtatt for 20 år siden. Det greier ut for de utfordringer dette arbeidet står overfor i dag, som implementasjonsgapet, det globale tilbakeslaget for kvinnerettigheter og multilateralt samarbeid, økningen i den sterkt kjønnete nasjonalpopulismen, det politiske klimaet blant FNs medlemstater og innen sikkerhetsrådet, samt Covid-19-pandemien. Det diskuterer hvorvidt denne krevende situasjonen gjør at man bør prioritere å opprettholde det man har oppnådd på feltet KFS siden sikkerhetsrådsresolusjon 1325 ble vedtatt, istedenfor å presse for å få til progressive endringer. Det argumenteres for at dagens situasjon gjør det mer relevant og nødvendig enn aldri før å ta i bruk en mer helhetlig forståelse av kjønnsbegrepet og hvordan dette er helt sentralt i politikk, konflikt og fredsarbeid. Denne tilnærmingen bør utgjøre grunnlaget for analyser av konfliktsituasjoner, samt for å forstå de utfordringer som KFS-agendaen står ovenfor nå. Fremmingen og anvendelsen av denne tilnærmingen bør være en prioritet for KFS-agendaen i årene som kommer.
The Impact of COVID-19 on Peace Operations
A few weeks ago, peace operations across the world began swiftly adapting to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 disease. Missions have been forced to take unprecedented steps to cope with the coronavirus pandemic. These efforts may be just the beginning, and much more significant reductions and changes in the way these operations function may be needed over the coming months.
The impact of COVID-19 on the performance of peace operations
Between the African Union, European Union, OSCE, NATO and United Nations there are approximately 160,000 civilian, police and military personnel deployed in more than 50 missions. These missions have all been forced to take unprecedented steps to adapt and cope with the COVID-19 pandemic. This may be just the beginning and much more significant reductions and changes in the way these operations function may be needed over the coming months.
COVID-19 will change the way the UN conducts peacekeeping operations in the future
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted UN peacekeeping operations. In the short-term, activities have been reduced to the most critical, rotations have been frozen, and most staff are working remotely. Most of the missions have adapted remarkably well, but even more extreme changes are likely in the medium term, as the global economic recession that will follow in the wake of the virus may force UN peace operations to drastically contract in size and scope.
Female Peacekeepers and Operational Effectiveness in UN Peace Operations.
Behovet for flere kvinner i FNs fredsoperasjoner, er fundert i både et likestillings- og i et prestasjonsfremmende argument. En survey fra mars 2020 og funn fra studier utført av Effectiveness of Peace Operations Network (EPON), fremhever viktigheten av større kjønnsbalanse i FNs fredsoperasjoner for å lykkes bedre med mandatoppnåelse. Våre funn peker også på effekten av kontekstspesifikke hindringer og hvordan fraværet av tilrettelagte og støttende systemer betyr at verken mannlige eller kvinnelige fredsbevarere kan prestere på sitt beste. Videre peker studien på risikoen for at agendaen for kvinner, fred og sikkerhet (KFS) - inkludert likestilling mellom kjønnene i fredsbevarende operasjoner - kan bli nedprioritert i møte med andre presserende behov. I lys av COVID-19-pandemien og den globale resesjonen, er denne risikoen forsterket. En fortsatt politisk og økonomisk forpliktelse til å øke antall er en forutsetning for å oppnå større kjønnsparitet og likestilling. Når det gjelder diskursen rundt dette, må vi imidlertid nå kunne gå videre og ikke lengre måtte bevise merverdien av kvinnelig deltakelse, noe som legger en ekstra byrde på de det gjelder.
Unity in Goals, Diversity in Means - and the discourse on female peacekeepers in UN peace operations.
Kjønnsparitet på alle nivåer i FN, som et middel for å oppnå likestilling, er en to tiår gammel forpliktelse, som gjenspeiler kjerneverdier like gamle som FN selv. Til tross for dette har framgangen med å øke antallet kvinnelige fredsbevarere vært treg og ujevn, særlig i uniformerte roller - men også i sivile og som deltagere i fredsprosesser. Dette skyldes en rekke årsaker, men særlig mangel på politisk vilje, finansiering og ansvarlighet, samt motstand mot likestilling. Vi argumenterer for et paradigmeskifte, både basert i bedre prestasjoner, men også på et normativt likestillingsgrunnlag. For å implementere allerede avtalte planer og resolusjoner, må FN og dets medlemsland fokusere mer på den operasjonelle verdien av mangfold, både for nasjonale sikkerhetsstyrker og i fredsoperasjoner. Kjønn bør betraktes som en sentral komponent i dette mangfoldet. I den nåværende situasjonen, der vi er vitne til et tilbakeslag når det gjelder støtte til kvinners rettigheter så bør sikring av mangfold ikke bare betraktes som en hovedprioritet, men også et nasjonalt og internasjonalt sikkerhetsimperativ.
The Impact of Covid-19 on the Women, Peace and Security Agenda.
• Women appear to be disproportionately affected by Covid-19 • Pushback on global commitment to gender equality • Gender equality and human development are correlated: focussing on gender equality will have a catalytic effect on the SDGs • The increasing strain on peace operations is likely to have a negative effect on the WPS agenda.
Preventing Organized Crime. The Need for a Context-Sensitive, System-Wide Approach.
Recent years have seen important developments regarding the UN Security Council and the UN Secretariat. The Security Council, which has increasingly recognized organized crime as a serious threat to international peace and security—especially in relation to terrorism—has begun using sanctions to deal with organized crime and trafficking in Mali and Libya. Further, serious and organized crime (SOC) police units have been established in several UN field operations, including in the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mali. However, there is still no UN-wide policy on organized crime, and the issue has been conspicuously absent from recent strategic documents such as the Action for Peacekeeping Declaration (A4P). This report argues that there is need for a UN system-wide approach to peace operations for preventing and addressing organized crime, and its links to terrorism. To achieve this, UN member states and the UN Secretariat should seek to consolidate and broaden its nascent law enforcement capacity- building police approach into a context sensitive, system-wide approach. Six specific recommendations for the way forward are offered.
WPS and Female Peacekeepers
The chapter provides an overview of the participation of female peacekeeping personnel in UN missions, tracing key target and agenda- setting policy events, as well as examining causes for the slow progress in female participation. The chapter considers female participation in the military, police, and civilian components of UN peacekeeping operations. It then critically discusses the drawbacks of the “gender- balancing” agenda advanced by the UN, which critics argue has often amounted to “tokenism.” This necessary, but insufficient goal of increasing numbers alone, has been prioritized over the more comprehensive and potentially transformative goal of gender mainstreaming. Gender mainstreaming in peacekeeping is defined as “a way of guaranteeing that the concerns, requirements and opinions of women and men are included equally into every aspect of peacekeeping.” Moreover, each component of the mission should include a “gender perspective in all its functions and tasks from start- up to draw- down” (United Nations 2014: 21– 22). Failing to address the complexity of gender relations and the militarized, masculine, institutional structures within peacekeeping missions themselves will ultimately constrain gender equality. Seeking to situate the WPS agenda within the broader context of UN peace operations, the chapter concludes by reflecting on some of the possible implications of the trend toward militarization and securitization within peacekeeping which will have consequences for women’s active and quality participation in peacekeeping.
Predictive Peacekeeping: Strengthening Predictive Analysis in UN Peace Operations
The UN is becoming increasingly data-driven. Until recently, data-driven initiatives have mainly been led by individual UN field missions, but with António Guterres, the new Secretary-General, a more centralized approach is being embarked on. With a trend towards the use of data to support the work of UN staff, the UN is likely to soon rely on systematic data analysis to draw patterns from the information that is gathered in and across UN field missions. This paper is based on UN peacekeeping data from the Joint Mission Analysis Centre (JMAC) in Darfur, and draws on interviews conducted in New York, Mali and Sudan. It will explore the practical and ethical implications of systematic data analysis in UN field missions. Systematic data analysis can help the leadership of field missions to decide where to deploy troops to protect civilians, guide conflict prevention efforts and help preempt threats to the mission itself. However, predictive analysis in UN peace operations will only be beneficial if it also leads to early action. Finally, predictive peacekeeping will not only be demanding of resources, it will also include ethical challenges on issues such as data privacy and the risk of reidentification of informants or other potentially vulnerable people.
How UN Peacekeeping Operations Can Adapt to a New Multipolar World Order
How will United Nations peacekeeping operations adapt to the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order? The paper considers emerging dynamics in three areas that may suggest how UN peacekeeping are likely to be affected by a changing world order, namely strategic political coherence, the employment of force, and the outer limits of peace operations. It points out that one of the enduring characteristics of UN peacekeeping has been the resilience of its identity. Another has been the continuous evolution of the specific manifestations of that identity into practice. UN peacekeeping have thus shown a remarkable capacity to continuously adapt to new challenges over the past 70 plus years, and there is no evidence to suggest that it will not continue to do so into the future.
Assessing the Effectiveness of the United Nations Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
This report assesses the extent to which the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) is achieving its current strategic objectives, and the impact the Mission has had on the political and security situation in Mali. Until 2016 MINUSMA managed to strengthen stability in northern Mali, decreasing the number of civilians killed in the conflict, and allowing large numbers of displaced persons to return home. MINUSMA also assisted the peace process, culminating in the 2015 Algiers Agreement. Many of these achievements are still standing. However, since 2016 MINUSMA’s effectiveness in terms of stabilisation and the protection of civilians has decreased. In the North, the signatory parties have been making slow progress in the implementation of the Algiers Agreement and the 2018 Pact for Peace. In addition, central Mali has destabilised significantly, as Jihadist activities have stoked a vicious cycle of inter-communal violence that has reached unprecedented levels. MINUSMA has only been mandated to help the Malian government address the situation since June 2018. As one of the largest multidimensional peacekeeping operations – currently including nearly 13,000 soldiers and 1,800 police officers from 57 contributing countries, and almost 750 civilians – MINUSMA has been provided with significant resources and an extraordinarily ambitious mandate. However, the Mission finds itself at a crossroads. It needs time to succeed, but this is valuable time Mali does not have. Civilians have come under increasing attack, and the US, in particular, is losing interest in supporting a costly UN peace operation that is not able to deliver quick results. This report considers the degree to which there is an alignment between the mission’s resources and its mandate. It also makes an assessment of the options available to the Mission to increase its effectiveness in the face of extremely challenging circumstances.
United Nations Peace Operations in a Changing Global Order
This edited volume generates a discussion about UN approaches to peace by studying challenges and opportunities that the organisation is facing in the 21st century. We use some of the findings from the HIPPO report as an inspiration and put both its recommendations and broader UN actions in a wider context. We identify four transformations in the global order and study what implications these have on UN peace operations. The first two transformations emanate from the changing relations between states and reflect the increasingly multipolar character of contemporary global governance. The latter two transformations reflect the changing relations between state and non-state actors. These two broad groups of non-state actors are fundamentally incompatible in their outlook on how and whether the international community should be intervening. That notwithstanding, both groups of non-state actors also force the UN and its member states to rethink the centrality of state-based approaches to security and intervention. In this volume, we identify four transformations in the global order and study their implications on the United Nations peace operations. We ask: - How is the rebalancing of relations between states of the global North and the global South impacting the UN’s decision-making, financing and ability to design operations that go beyond the minimum common denominator; - How is the rise of regional organisations as providers of peace impacting the primacy of UN peace operations and how and whether the UN can remain relevant in this era of partnership and competition; - How have violent extremism and fundamentalist non-state actors changed the nature of international responses and what does this mean for previously advanced longer-term approaches to conflict resolution; - How are demands from non-state actors for greater emphasis on human security impacting the UN’s credibility, and whether, in light of the first three transformations, is the UN even able to prioritise people-centred approaches over state-centred ones. Our core finding is that with the entry of new actors from the global South as important players in the peace arena, we seem to be entering a more pragmatic era of UN peace operations. As contributions to this volume show, there is a greater willingness to innovate and experiment with new forms of conflict management, including more robust interpretations of UN peacekeeping and an increasing reliance on regional actors as providers of peace. At the same time, the UN is facing a classic struggle between the promotion of liberal international norms and realist security concerns. The resolution of this struggle is less clear. The contributors to this volume emphasise the importance of people-centred approaches, conflict sensitivity and longer-term thinking as key aspects to continued relevance of the UN, but their conclusions as to how achievable these are by the UN are not as clear cut.
Complexity thinking and adaptive peacebuilding
Cedric de Coning explores how complexity thinking can contribute to our understanding of how to create more inclusive peace processes, and how adaptive approaches enable local and external peacebuilders to apply new models of practice, experimentation and learning. These differ fundamentally from approaches where the role of peacebuilders is to implement a pre-designed intervention. De Coning suggests that pressure for change tends to accumulate over time often without signs of progress, and that key system changes occur during periods of turbulence when the self-sustaining ‘path dependencies of violence’ are disrupted. Adaptation does not imply embracing disorder or abandoning goals, but rather being more front-footed, coping with uncertainty, anticipating change and embracing experimentation.
The Joint Force of the G5 Sahel: An Appropriate Response to Combat Terrorism?
The Joint Force of the Group of Five of the Sahel reflects the commitment of African states to cooperate to address common security challenges. Yet, little is known about its counter-terrorism strategy for the region. This article focuses on the security pillar of the G5 Sahel, the Joint Force (FC-G5S), and provides a critical examination of its mandate to combat terrorism in the Sahel. It explains the context into which the force was deployed and provides an overview of its conceptualisation and configuration. It demonstrates that in its current form, there is a danger of advancing a security-first stabilisation strategy that relies heavily on military-led counter-terror operations to contain and deter the threat of terrorist groups which can have serious consequences for local communities living among insurgents. The article argues that while establishing firmer border control and enhanced intelligence-sharing between the G5 Sahel states is important, the current counter-terror response risks depoliticising insurgents, and neglects the sociopolitical and economic grievances and problems of governance that have enabled violent extremism to take root in the first place. Removing the categorisation of jihadist insurgents as terrorists only and understanding their multifaceted identities – some as legitimate social and political actors – would open up more policy responses, including dialogue and conflict resolution.
Towards a Comprehensive Results-based Reporting and Performance Assessment Framework for UN Peacekeeping Operations
This report considers the tools and processes that DPKO and DFS currently use to assess the performance of senior personnel, individual units and peacekeeping operations, and proposes a methodology for reorganizing these tools into a single overarching comprehensive planning, reporting and performance assessment framework. We argue for a shared analytical framework for performance assessment, across the UN system, and show how the terminology used by the United Nations Evaluation Group can be applied in peacekeeping operations. Currently, performance assessments of peacekeeping operations are undertaken as a number of independent processes which serve different constituencies and a range of purposes. This report identified eight different tools, each performing its own data collection and analysis. They are concentrated in two distinct areas across the spectrum. On the one hand a group of tools focus on outputs (measurable actions undertaken), and on the other a few tools focus on strategic analysis of the context – where the link to the peacekeeping operation is very tenuous. As a result, the information generated by the current tools are not able to be aggregated into a meaningful overall assessment of the performance of a given peacekeeping operation. The report endorses the principle of establishing a single comprehensive planning, reporting and performance assessment framework (the Framework) which brings the existing policies and tools together into more efficient interaction. In addition to what exists already, we recommend developing a performance assessment design that supports the Framework and the RBB with information on the performance of the mission against its plans, objectives and mandate. 1. We recommend the establishment of a single comprehensive planning, reporting and performance assessment Framework that incorporates the current planning and evaluation policies and tools, including the RBB, and that adds a new performance assessment tool and a predictable planning and decision-making cycle. 2. The Framework needs to envision a strategic planning horizon that is linked to the timeframes necessary to achieve the mission’s mandate, and should not be limited to the period for which the mission is currently authorized. 3. The Framework should contain a performance assessment tool should consisting of three elements, namely a set of indicators for each performance area, a process for analyzing and reporting on performance, and a platform where all the information gathered is stored for current and future use. 4. For each mission, the Framework should be grounded in a context analysis that identifies the key drivers that shape developments in the conflict-system that the peacekeeping operation is intended to influence. It should include in particular the identification of key drivers of change, which are the events or trends which will trigger significant change. The context analysis identifies, and analyse the critical conditions that influence these drivers, and the mission’s effects-based plans should be aimed at influencing these critical conditions, so as to have an impact on the key drivers. 5. Central to a performance assessment is defining the manner in which outputs are intended to influence the critical conditions around key drivers and actors. Clearly articulating the intended influence (the so-called ‘theory of change’ in evaluation terminology) helps to anticipate what impact a peacekeeping operation can be expected to have on a conflict-system, as the triggers, or drivers of the process of change have been clearly identified as part of the context analysis. Operationalizing the Framework requires three streams of elaboration, aimed at different functions within the organisation. It should be noted that it does not add significant new tasks, but aims to bring together what exists into three categories of capacities: • Assessment capacity, existing staff who will be trained in performance assessment; • Planners and managers, who would be given concrete points of reference on which to base decisions (resources, outputs, critical conditions, assumptions under review); and • A digital platform which can capture, through big data solutions, the information in the existing systems, and present it into a single dash-board interface.
Review of the Global Focal Point for Police, Justice and Security 2018
In December 2017, an independent Review of the Global Focal Point (GFP) arrangement was commissioned to inform GFP partners, Member States and other stakeholders on how the arrangement has evolved over time and can be further strengthened to deliver rule of law assistance in peacekeeping operation settings, special political mission settings, including in transition contexts, and non-mission settings. The Review examines progress, achievements and challenges of GFP joint support to rule of law activities with a view to strengthening the GFP arrangement, enhancing the delivery of rule of law assistance and adapting it to the United Nations reforms, the implementation of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, and the Secretary-General’s prevention platform initiative. The research, with more than 209 interviews undertaken, was concluded in June and the report was finalized in August 2018.
Predictive peacekeeping: opportunities and challenges
The time is ripe for the development of a UN early warning tool that estimates the likelihood of instability, intercommunity clashes and armed violence in areas in which UN peacekeepers operate. However, this development would require at least some initial collaboration between the UN and the scientific world. Scientists have developed advanced analytical tools to predict armed violence in recent years.1 Yet, these conflict prediction tools still cannot be utilized to their full potential because of a relatively poor quality of conflict data. It is precisely in the area of high quality conflict data that the UN has a strong comparative advantage,2 especially now that the Situational Awareness Geospatial Enterprise (SAGE) system is being implemented. SAGE is a web-based database system that allows UN military, police and civilians in UN peace operations (both UN peacekeeping operations and special political missions) to log incidents, events and activities. The development of SAGE has made it possible to leverage state of the art methodological tools to enable predictive peacekeeping. This policy brief provides background to the recent turn to using data in UN peacekeeping missions, suggestions for what an early warning tool based on SAGE data would look like, and discusses the practical and ethical challenges of such an early warning tool.
Researching the Effectiveness of Peace Operations, Seminar Report, 31 May – 1 June, Oslo
The African Union (AU), European Union (EU), and United Nations (UN) are under increasing pressure to justify the effectiveness of the peace operations they deploy. Justifying this effectiveness requires precise assessments based on systematized and evidence-based data. Per now, however, this data is lacking, a gap the global research community could help address. On 31 May and 1 June 2017, the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) hosted a seminar that brought together thirty participants from the AU, UN, the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as research institutes and think tanks from across the globe. The aim of the seminar was to share insights on how best to research the effectiveness of peace operations and to explore the establishment of a network that could seek to address this gap. The seminar discussed how to research and measure the effectiveness of peace operations. It looked at current definitions and conceptualizations of effectiveness, and it discussed the varying perceptions stakeholders have of the effectiveness of peace operations. The group also explored the options for establishing a network dedicated to research on the effectiveness of peace operations. The seminar agreed on the value of establishing such a network, with an aim to produce knowledge that is both academically valuable and relevant for policymakers. Hence, it considered different organizational modalities for a potential research network, with regards to governing principles, funding, and how researchers could undertake joint research projects. This report summarizes the key conclusions and recommendations from the seminar, and lists what the next steps may be for the establishment of a research network on the effectiveness of peace operations.
Plug and Play: Multinational Rotation Contributions for UN Peacekeeping Operations
In January 2016, Norway deployed a C-130 military transport aircraft to the UN mission in Mali (MINUSMA). Given the number of attacks on patrols and logistics convoys of MINUSMA, which has been called ‘the world’s most dangerous UN mission’, a military transport aircraft like the C-130 is considered a critical enabler to the UN mission, whose ability to operate safely and carry out its mandate has often been limited by the lack of air assets. From the beginning of the mission in July 2013, European troop-contributing countries (TCCs) have provided military aircrafts (C-130s and smaller C-160s and C-295s), but the difference between these and the 2016 deployment was that the latter was longer term, providing more predictability for the UN since it would be part of a multinational rotation contribution (MRC) initiated by Norway, followed by Portugal, Denmark, Sweden and Belgium.
Rising Powers and Peacebuilding: Breaking the Mold
This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This edited volume examines the policies and practices of rising powers on peacebuilding. It analyzes how and why their approaches differ from those of traditional donors and multilateral institutions. The policies of the rising powers towards peacebuilding may significantly influence how the UN and others undertake peacebuilding in the future. This book is an invaluable resource for practitioners, policy makers, researchers and students who want to understand how peacebuilding is likely to evolve over the next decades.
Peace Enforcement in Africa: Doctrinal distinctions between the African Union and United Nations
When the United Nations (UN) Security Council needs to authorize a peace enforcement operation in Africa, its partner of choice is the African Union (AU). Africa has developed significant peace operations capacity over the past decade. In addition to deploying eight AU operations, Africa now contributes 50% of all UN peacekeepers. African stability operations, like its mission in Somalia, are often described as peace enforcement operations. In this article, the author questions whether it is accurate to categorize African stability operations as peace enforcement? This article answers the question by considering what the criteria are that are used to differentiate between peace enforcement and peacekeeping operations in the UN context. The author then uses the peace enforcement criteria to assess whether AU stabilization operations would qualify as peace enforcement operations. In conclusion, he considers the implications of the findings for the strategic partnership between the AU and the UN.
Measuring the Success of Peace Operations: Directions in Academic Literature
This background paper examines how the academic literature has approached the question of success in peace operations. Here it should be noted that many theoretical and methodological issues have not been settled, nor does this contribution seek to resolve them. The aim here is to shed light on the issue, and indicate where choices need to be made for research into success to be rigorous. The first section examines differences between the way that scholarly and practitioner analyses approach this question. The section that follows looks at how the academic literature has approached the definition of success and where some of the fault-lines lie. In the conclusion I outline a number of methodological decisions that need to be made when conducting research on success.