Publikasjoner
EU referendum: the beginning, not the end, of Brexiteers’ problems
On 23 June 2016, Britain voted to leave the European Union. The referendum outcome triggered resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron and his replacement by former Home Secretary Theresa May. This brief enquires into why Cameron lost the referendum battle and what the major challenges facing the new prime minister are. May, who supported the ‘Remain’ campaign, will have to prove that she can deliver Brexit. That will not be an easy task, with obstacles at home and abroad. Scotland and Northern Ire-land voted to remain in the EU, and their reluctance to leave the EU could complicate May’s plans. PM May will also find it difficult to win hearts in Brussels. Britain tested the patience of the EU institutions with its reform demands, and Brussels will be reluctant to make things easier for the UK in Brexit talks. Member-states may be more receptive to Britain’s concerns, but the UK will prob-ably not be offered any special treatment.
Energy: The Missing Link in Globalization
Energy resources are transported long distances and create powerful interlinkages between countries. Energy thus contributes to the globalization of the world, but has received little attention in the globalization literature. This article hypothesizes that energy globalization is growing and accelerating. The hypothesis is tested by developing an index to measure changes in the extent of energy globalization during the 20-year period from 1992 to 2011. The following sub-indicators are included in the index: number of energy trade relationships, average distance of energy trade relationships, and energy dependency of the countries in the world. The development of the index encounters a number of conceptual and methodological challenges related to globalization, which, it turns out, have not been addressed properly in the broader literature. Clarification of these issues can help improve the analysis of globalization.
Oljefondet og utenrikspolitikken: Gorillaen i rommet
Oljefondet reiser en rekke utenrikspolitiske spørsmål. Noen hevder at Oljefondet bør brukes som et virkemiddel for å fremme norske utenrikspolitiske interesser. Det er ikke mitt poeng. Jeg tror det er gode grunner å unngå en utvikling i den retning. Historien har vist at organiseringen av Oljefondet så langt har gitt gode resultater og det kan være risikabelt å gjøre en slik kobling. Samtidig mener jeg det er direkte uklokt, for både Oljefondet og utenrikspolitikken, å lukke øynene for de mange direkte, og indirekte, utenrikspolitiske funksjonene og virkningene som Oljefondet allerede i dag har og vil få i tiden fremover. Det er derfor på høy tid at vi undersøker nærmere hvordan og i hvilken grad Oljefondet og Norges finansielle investeringer former Norges internasjonale relasjoner, og på sikt også Norges interesser i utenrikspolitikken? Hvordan påvirker Oljefondet hvilke partnere, allianser og internasjonale grupperinger Norge inngår i, og hvordan påvirker Oljefondet Norges status og omdømme i det internasjonale samfunn? Med et stadig større Oljefond reises også spørsmålet om å sikre koherens mellom Oljefondets investeringer og andre sider ved den norske utenrikspolitikken. Selv om ikke Oljefondet skal være et virkemiddel for norsk utenrikspolitikk, bør vi kanskje snu om på forholdet, og, satt på spissen, spørre hvilken utenrikspolitikk Norge skal føre for å ivareta Oljefondets interesser. I denne artikkelen skal jeg bare kort belyse noen sider av forholdet mellom Oljefondet og norsk utenrikspolitikk. Tematikken er stor, og artikkelen er ingenlunde uttømmende, men jeg vil vise hvordan Oljefondet på ulike måter påvirker sentrale utenrikspolitiske størrelser, som Norges nasjonale interesser og posisjoner, ressurser, makt, allianser, forventninger, representasjon, status og koherens.
Market-specific Sunk Export Costs: The Impact of Learning and Spillovers
Firms may face sunk costs when entering an export market. Previous studies have focused on global or country-specific sunk export costs. This study analyses the importance of market-specific sunk export costs (defining ‘market’ as a product–country combination). We also study how market-specific export costs can be affected by various kinds of learning and spillover effects. We use firm-level panel data for Norwegian seafood exports distributed on products and countries. The results lend support to the hypothesis of market-specific sunk costs. We also find evidence of learning and spillover effects, particularly within the same product group.
The Eco-Island Trap: Climate Change Mitigation and Conspicuous Sustainability
Governance of climate change adaptation on Small Island Developing States (SIDS)
The Energy Union and Security-of-Gas-Supply
This paper discusses and contrasts the proposals for an Energy Union in the European Union and its impact on security-of-gas-supply. Based on an examination of historical East-West gas trade and by revisiting energy security concepts, the paper analyzes how problems with dependency on energy imports can be reduced. The paper discusses how the positions of Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC), where security challenges are especially evident, and the positions of countries in Western Europe, where they are less acute, interact and conflicts in making a common energy security policy as part of the Energy Union. The paper argues that the mainly confederative structure of the EU, and diverging national situations, make it difficult to unify positions into an effective common energy policy. However, with the CEEC in the EU, the EU is also changing, and an increased focus on energy security may be accepted. Extended interconnectedness within and to the CEEC appears to be the central issue that would mitigate, albeit not solve, contemporary security-of-gas-supply problems. As it would also bring the internal energy market closer to reality, it could in addition help the Energy Union to become a unifying project merging the interests in the East and the West despite their different security-of-gas supply concerns with Russian gas.