Publikasjoner
PISM Policy Paper nr 4 (157): Squaring the Circle: Is a Balanced Deterrence and Dialogue Approach toward Russia Workable?
Dialogue between Russia and NATO is indispensable to limit the risk of unintended military confrontation amid increased tension. Without dialogue, Alliance cohesion is also at stake. To develop a balance between deterrence and dialogue, it is necessary to understand how the two actions relate to each other, what lessons the West can learn from the past, and what goals it wants to achieve apart from limiting the risk of confrontation.
Nordic-Baltic Security in Times of Uncertainty: The Defence-Energy Nexus
The report shows that energy and defence in the Nordic-Baltic region are closely interrelated. During the Cold War, the energy cooperation of Western European countries with the USSR was seen as an element of strengthening the status quo and reducing the risk of conflict. In the new strategic situation, when Russia is interested in regaining the status of regional and global power, there is a real threat that Kremlin will use Europe's dependence on Russian gas to divide NATO and the EU. The Russian military advantage in the region, the ability to block access to Alliance forces and the ability to influence its members through energy blackmail may encourage Russia to test NATO's credibility, increasing the risk of conflict in the region. NATO's ability to deter Russia creates a natural platform of cooperation for Norway and Poland. Both states should also be interested in reducing the Alliance's dependence on Russian energy resources.
European Defence and Third Countries after Brexit
The UK’s departure from the European Union has given energy to the process towards ‘ever closer Union’ in the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). Many policies and initiatives have been brought to the table in the aftermath of the referendum that created shock waves in Europe. This policy brief takes stock of the developments in European defence integration since the Brexit referendum in June 2016. Contrary to the dominant political and public debate about those developments, and the political optimism inside the EU, the brief identifies some key obstacles towards expanded European defence integration. With the UK’s exit from the EU, the ‘third country’ role in the CSDP will inevitably be altered, as one of the largest military powers in Europe will stand outside of the EU. For current third countries – like Norway and Iceland – this should lead to caution regarding immediate participation and a pragmatic approach to the developments. Energy and resources should not be invested before post-Brexit institutions and practices have been established.
Tanzania: A Political Economy Analysis
This report provides a comprehensive political economy analysis of contemporary Tanzania. Focusing on developments since the election of John Magufuli as President, it traces the evolution of the country´s political economy. Three main developments are emphasized. First, significant efforts have been made at addressing corruption, reforming public service practice, and maximizing public revenues. Second, there has been a clear shift towards a state-led model of economic development. This reconfiguration is unfolding in an increasingly competitive political environment and in the context of long-standing symbiotic relationships between politics and business. Third, there has been an increasingly restrictive approach towards civil society. Representatives of the public have been arrested and detained, and open political gatherings have been banned. The potential impact of these changes on the political settlement are complex. Factionalism within the CCM in recent years have been characterized by repeated cases of grand corruption. Still, there has been remarkable party cohesion, related to the fact that the factions belong to a narrow elite, which with ultimately has shared interests. Effective state-led development faces several challenges. Political capacity to direct long-term developmental change has been challenged by the development of factions within the CCM. Moreover, there are limits to the state’s capacity to formulate and implement policy. Uncertainty over public finances, particularly regarding international commercial borrowing, will, in the short term at least, stymie efforts to make the public service more effective. The greater political challenge is that posed by CHADEMA. With the 2015 elections, it consolidated itself as the leading political opposition in mainland Tanzania, with stable leadership and a solid organization in much of the country. CHADEMA´s relationships with Tanzanian private-sector interests leave its supporters open to targeted actions by tax and regulatory authorities. The state´s repressive approach towards civil society reflects the level of threat perceived by the ruling elite. External issues – like shifting relationships with donors, the emergence of new international allies and financiers, and security threats from transnational groups – are more tangential to the future direction of the Tanzanian state. Their impact will depend on trajectories in the areas of political and administrative capacity, relations between capital and the state, and the levels of political and civic organization beyond the party and the state. Dialogue with development partners has remained generally poor, a decline that set in some years ago. Like other countries in the region, Tanzania is increasingly attracting investment and public debt finance from China, from emerging powers like Turkey, and from others with an investment interest in Tanzania, such as the Gulf states.
Russia’s New Asian Tilt: How Much Does Economy Matter?
The economic development of Russia’s Far East has been proclaimed a policy priority, to be facilitated by an ambitious turn or ‘pivot’ to Asia. This chapter assesses Russia’s economic reorientation towards Asia, offering an overview of the Far Eastern dimension of Russia’s economic relations with its major Asian partners in 2010–16, based on analysis of the dynamics of investment, trade relations and business climate development. Since 2014, trade with Asian partners has stagnated, while foreign investment (except for Chinese) has remained negligible. Moreover, trade is still mainly oriented towards markets in European Russia. The chapter concludes that Russia’s pivot to Asia has not yet become an economic pivot—and that such a turn would be more easily attainable under a non-sanctions regime.
Preface - Russia's turn to the East
Pictures can sometimes be more revealing than words. If you ever sit down and look at a night-time satellite picture of the Earth, you will find that there are still huge areas on our planet that are not lit up by human activities and cities. One of the largest ‘dark spots’ in the Northern Hemisphere is found in the Russian Far East, or Pacific Russia. Here are enormous territories rich in natural resources like petroleum, minerals, forests and water – but these vast reaches are sparsely populated, and lack connective infrastructure. A closer look at the satellite image will reveal a tiny thread of light, almost like an umbilical cord, linking the Far Eastern part of Russia with the European part. This is the Trans-Siberian Railway that connects the Eastern and Western parts of Russia. The same satellite picture shows few traces of networking with the territories of the immediate neighbourhood – the brightly lit, heavily populated, urbanized and dynamic Asian economies of China, Japan and the Republic of Korea. It is hardly surprising that Russia has intensified its efforts at closer integration with these Asian neighbours, economically and politically. For Russia, this pivot to Asia represents huge opportunities, but it also entails significant economic, administrative, technological, cultural and strategic challenges. The contributors to this book examine the nature, speed and direction of the long-term structural shift. Rather than taking the declared ‘pivot’ as a fact and exploring the likely consequences, the authors ask whether there has in fact been such a new pivot – or if what we see today is a continuation of longer-duration trends, concerns and ambitions. The authors explore the relationship between integration and disintegration, examining whether Russia’s turn to the East has intensified or changed in nature – domestically and internationally – since the onset of the current crisis in relations with the West. In turning to the East, is Russia also turning away from the West? This project is a result of collaboration involving scholars from Norway, Russia, Korea and the UK, and has been supported financially by the Korea Foundation and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In preparing this book, we have also benefited from our involvement in the project ‘Developing Asia Pacific’s Last Frontier: Fostering International Cooperation in the Development of Russia’s Far East and Siberia’, working with partners in Russia, Japan, China and Singapore.
Budsjettknuten. Utviklingspolitikken kan skygge for utenrikspolitikken.
Vi lever i en tid med store geopolitiske omskiftninger og økt usikkerhet. Flere land er nå i ferd med å gjennomgå og justere sin utenrikspolitikk. I tider med usikkerhet kan det være hensiktsmessig å øke handlefriheten. UtenriksministerIne Eriksen Søreide har antydet at hennes førsteprioritet er sikkerhet, nærområdene, transatlantiske forhold og Europa. Å prioritere er ikke lett. Det handler om å koble visjoner med ressurser og oppmerksomhet. Trolig ligger den viktigste skranken prosaisk nok i den hjemlige budsjettstrukturen. See full text
Norge trenger en Kina-strategi
Hva slags Kina-politikk er vi tjent med? spør Ulf Sverdrup i denne DN-kronikken.
Cyber-weapons in International Politics : Possible sabotage against the Norwegian petroleum sector
The use of digital weapons is a rising global problem. Society is rapidly becoming more digitalized – and thereby more vulnerable to attacks. These vulnerabilities are increasingly abused by states and other international actors: Information is stolen, and sabotage occurs. Politically motivated digital attacks against petroleum-sector infrastructure represent one such threat, but this has not attracted as much attention by politicians and business leaders as other security challenges in the sector. In an international crisis, Norwegian oil and gas deliveries to Europe could be attacked on a scale far exceeding what the private and public sectors experience on a daily basis. Such attacks could be aimed at stopping or hindering the physical delivery of petroleum, with direct economic, security and political implications beyond the digital domain.This report examines the issue of digital sabotage of the Norwegian petroleum sector by placing the issue in a geopolitical context, by examining previous cases, and by investigating the current security setup in the petroleum sector.