Publikasjoner

Assessing the Effectiveness of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS)

Rapporten fokuserer på den siste perioden av UNMISS' mandat (2014-18), med sikte på å gi et "øyeblikksbilde" av misjonens arbeid på tvers av dets fire hovedmandatområder: beskyttelse av sivile, tilrettelegging for humanitær levering, promotering menneskerettigheter og støtte til fredsprosessen. Som en stor, flerdimensjonal fredsbevarende operasjon – med 17 000 soldater, 2 000 politi og 2 000 sivile – har UNMISS fått betydelige ressurser og et usedvanlig ambisiøst mandat. Å vurdere samsvaret mellom ressurser og mandat, og måten misjonen har tilpasset sine tilnærminger for å være effektive under ekstremt utfordrende omstendigheter er et hovedmål med denne rapporten. Gjennom hele sin eksistens har UNMISS vært en del av en mye bredere regional og internasjonal konstellasjon av aktører som arbeider for å stabilisere landet og oppmuntre konfliktparter til å gå inn i en meningsfull fredsprosess. I mange tilfeller har UNMISS spilt en begrenset støttende, koordinerende eller på annen måte indirekte rolle i landets overordnede bane; i andre er det en sentral aktør i øynene til befolkningen i Sør-Sudan. Dette utgjør en utfordring for enhver vurdering av oppdraget fordi UNMISS på det meste kan betraktes som en bidragsyter blant mange som jobber sammen for å avslutte borgerkrigen og legge grunnlaget for varig fred. Årsakssammenheng i disse settingene er vanskelig å fastslå. Ikke desto mindre, ved å trekke på de betydelige dataene og analysene som er tilgjengelige, og intervjuer med mer enn 260 mennesker i Sør-Sudan og regionen over flere uker, presenterer denne studien et sett med evidensbaserte funn om virkningen av oppdraget og faktorene som har muliggjort og hindret oppfyllelsen av sitt mandat.

EU climate and energy policy: new challenges for old energy suppliers

Climate policy will transform the EU energy demand mix. This has implications for the main suppliers of fossil fuels to the EU, foremost among which are Algeria, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA. Norway has a better starting point for adapting to changing EU energy demand than the other energy suppliers and therefore represents a best-case scenario. Whatever Norway fails to do, the other countries are even less likely to achieve. The question is whether Norway has been quick enough to exploit the opportunities to play a proactive role in the EU’s energy transition. This chapter argues that it has not, dragging its feet on natural gas vehicles, Norwegian wind power, electricity interconnectors, green battery development and mixing of hydrogen into natural gas. Some possible reasons for the tardiness are Norway’s dual resource course of oil and hydropower, carbon lock-in, energy populism, resource nationalism and blind spots in the perception of Norway’s place in international climate and energy policy.

Reactive Power EU: Russian Aggression and the Development of an EU Arctic Policy

There are many factors driving the development of European Union (EU) foreign policy. While much of the literature focuses on how particular interests, norms or internal processes within Brussels institutions, this article sheds light on the role of external factors in shaping EU foreign policy through an in-depth examination of the recent development of EU Arctic policies. We find that increased Russian aggression, not least in Ukraine, is key to understanding why the EU recently has taken a strong interest in the Arctic. In a more insecure environment, Member States are more prone to develop common policies to counter other powers and gain more influence over future developments, especially as it relates to regime-formation in the Global Commons. In effect, the EU demonstrates a kind of reactive power when it comes to dealing with new geopolitical threats.

Tradition, Nation und der böse Westen: Putin, Erdoğan und die Legitimation ihrer Herrschaft

Predictive Peacekeeping: Strengthening Predictive Analysis in UN Peace Operations

The UN is becoming increasingly data-driven. Until recently, data-driven initiatives have mainly been led by individual UN field missions, but with António Guterres, the new Secretary-General, a more centralized approach is being embarked on. With a trend towards the use of data to support the work of UN staff, the UN is likely to soon rely on systematic data analysis to draw patterns from the information that is gathered in and across UN field missions. This paper is based on UN peacekeeping data from the Joint Mission Analysis Centre (JMAC) in Darfur, and draws on interviews conducted in New York, Mali and Sudan. It will explore the practical and ethical implications of systematic data analysis in UN field missions. Systematic data analysis can help the leadership of field missions to decide where to deploy troops to protect civilians, guide conflict prevention efforts and help preempt threats to the mission itself. However, predictive analysis in UN peace operations will only be beneficial if it also leads to early action. Finally, predictive peacekeeping will not only be demanding of resources, it will also include ethical challenges on issues such as data privacy and the risk of reidentification of informants or other potentially vulnerable people.

Varsel om opprustning

Urovekkende nye missilforsvarsplaner fra USA, skriver Henrik Hiim i en kronikk i Klassekampen.

Å gjøre ingenting er uansvarlig

Regjeringen la i høst frem et forslag til ny lov for Etterretningstjenesten ut på høring. Det viktigste i lovforslaget er det som tidligere har vært omtalt som et «digitalt grenseforsvar», men som i lovforslaget har fått den langt mer presise beskrivelsen «tilrettelagt tilgang til grenseoverskridende elektronisk kommunikasjon». Det handler kort fortalt om at Etterretningstjenesten skal få større tilgang til det digitale rom. Primært vil dette handle om å gjøre forhåndsgodkjente søk i datatrafikken som krysser landets grenser – for å kunne fange opp avanserte dataangrep eller terrorplanlegging. Nupi har nylig sendt inn en høringsuttalelse basert på vår forskning på cybersikkerhet og internasjonal sikkerhetspolitikk.

Plugging the capability-expectations gap: towards effective, comprehensive and conflict-sensitive EU crisis response?

Since the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty in 2009, the European Union (EU) has spent considerable time and energy on defining and refining its comprehensive approach to external conflicts. The knock-on effects of new and protracted crises, from the war in Ukraine to the multi-faceted armed conflicts in the Sahel and the wider Middle East, have made the improvement of external crisis-response capacities a top priority. But has the EU managed to plug the capability–expectations gap, and develop an effective, comprehensive and conflict sensitive crisis-response capability? Drawing on institutional theory and an approach developed by March and Olsen, this article analyses whether the EU has the administrative capacities needed in order to be an effective actor in this area and implement a policy in line with the established goals and objectives identified in its comprehensive approach.

Gender-Discriminatory Laws and Women’s Economic Agency

Recent years have seen widespread advances in women’s legal rights in many countries. In other places, restrictions on women’s autonomy remain entrenched. This study explores cross-country patterns in the association between gender-discriminatory legislation and various indicators of women’s economic agency. We find that restrictions on legal capacity predict women’s asset ownership and labor force participation, while discrimination in wage work and parental leave are associated with the size and direction of wage gaps. These findings highlight the importance of conceptualizing and measuring legal rights and their potential effects as multidimensional.

EU-NATO inter-organizational relations in counter-piracy operations off the Horn of Africa

The track record of military rapid response mechanisms, troops on standby, ready to be deployed to a crisis within a short time frame by intergovernmental organizations, remains disappointing. Yet, many of the obstacles to multinational actors launching a rapid and effective military response in times of crisis are largely similar. This book is the first comprehensive and comparative contribution to explore and identify the key factors that hamper and enable the development and deployment of multinational rapid response mechanisms. Examining lessons from deployments by the AU, the EU, NATO, and the UN in the Central African Republic, Mali, Somalia and counter-piracy in the Horn of Africa, the contributors focus upon the following questions: Was there a rapid response to the crises? By whom? If not, what were the major obstacles to rapid response? Did inter-organizational competition hinder responsiveness? Or did cooperation facilitate responsiveness? Bringing together leading scholars working in this area offers a unique opportunity to analyze and develop lessons for policy-makers and for theorists of inter-organizational relations. This work will be of interest to scholars and students of peacebuilding, peacekeeping, legitimacy and international relations.