Publikasjoner

China’s Export Success: Due to Unfair Practices or Fair Competition?

Compared with previous ratings, China’s trade policy today is more positively acknowledged. Yet, China can still be criticised in particular because of its non-transparent subsidy policy, the privileged role of state-owned enterprises, the heavy hand of the state in general, the sluggish enforcement of intellectual property rights, and the prevalence of non-tariff barriers. Yet, it cannot be ignored that Chinese entrepreneurship mentality is highly developed outside state interference in world markets. Especially, in the digital economy, high motivation and a large pool of human skills act as drivers of innovations, so far mainly process innovations. The trade war with the US hurts China and is responded by China with asymmetrical retaliation. The more Chinese exports to the US in total are affected, the more costs will have to be borne by US consumers as options to shift to alternative suppliers become weaker. What President Trump would see as a “good” deal for the US is unclear. It can be thus presumed that the trade war will continue into 2020 and that it is in fact a tech war. The EU is affected as EU companies produce in China for the US market and in the US for the Chinese market. While it might gain from trade diversion effects in the short run, the negative effects on investment due to uncertainty weigh more heavily. The EU is tempted to negotiate a free trade agreement with China but rightly refuses to start negotiations before China is prepared to conclude an agreement on investment. The EU should not see China and the US on equidistance. Workable relations with the US are much more important. To conclude, China’s trade policy has improved relative to Western standards but still warrants further steps towards much less state influence. Yet, its global competiveness especially in the state-of-the-art digital economy is high and is owed to a strong entrepreneurial mentality.

Perspectives on European development co-operation : policy and performance of individual donor countries and the EU

A Century of US Diplomatic Security: An Evolutionary Response to a Changing Threat Environment

This chapter traces nearly 100 years of US Diplomatic Security from its pre-WWI origins up to the Obama Administration, describing the key drivers of its qualitative and quantitative expansion through the Cold War into the post 9-11 world. It offers a detailed breakdown of the various roles and missions of the State Department's Bureau of Diplomatic Security, as well as the ancillary diplomatic security role played by the US military.

Å varsle om hybride trusler

Hybrid Warfare Early Warning and Detection. It discusses history of warnning intelligence and why and how hybrid warfare creates new challenges for warning intelligence. It also briefly reviews four concise case studies on real-world expermentation on detecting hybrid threats.

Local Drivers of Violent Extremism in Central Mali

This policy brief examines the processes of violent extremist mobilisation and radicalisation in Mopti, Central Mali. Specifically, it looks at the strategies employed by one of the most salient radical jihadist groups in the region, the Katiba Macina. It seeks to answer the following questions: 1) Given that violent extremist mobilisation has not taken root uniformly across regions in Mali, and because it is often endogenous to local dynamics, how has Mopti as a region become an enabling environment for jihadist actors like the Katiba Macina? 2) How do groups like the Katiba Macina mobilise local support and integrate themselves among communities? 3) Why do individuals join, adhere to or accept the Katiba Macina?

Introduction

Informasjons og kommunikasjonsteknologi (IKT) betyr nye muligheter men også utfordringer for utviklingsland. Anvendelse av IKT, digitalisering og automasjon gir mulighet til store forbedringer i effektivitet og produktivitet, nye tjenestetilbud og yrker og binder sammen aktørene. Utviklingslandenes mulighet til å utnytte potensialet avhenger imidlertid av deres sosiale, økonomiske og institusjonelle forutsetninger. Mens digitalisering forventes å skape økonomisk vekst og høyere produktivitet, kan digitale skillelinjer, ekskludering og ulikhet også ofte observeres. Som et av verdens største land og med rask utbredelse av IKT er India spesielt egnet til å studere forholdet mellom digitalisering og utvikling. Denne boken presenterer en rekke nye bidrag på temaet, med fokus på India i et internasjonalt perspektiv. Dette introduksjonskapitlet gir bakgrunnsinformasjon om IKT i India; gir en introduksjon til hovedtemaer i forholdet mellom IKT, sosio-økonomisk utvikling og digital ulikhet; og gir et sammendrag og en veiviser til de senere kapitlene i boken. Hovedbudskapet fra boken sett under ett er av virkningen av IKT avhenger av andre ressurser, kunnskap og institusjonelle forhold. Nasjonal politikk må derfor ikke bare fremme digitalisering som sådan, men også sørge for samtidig utvikling av en rekke andre faktorer i hvert land.

Digitalisation and Development: Issues for India and Beyond

Informasjons og kommunikasjonsteknologi (IKT) betyr nye muligheter men også utfordringer for utviklingsland. Anvendelse av IKT, digitalisering og automasjon gir mulighet til store forbedringer i effektivitet og produktivitet, nye tjenestetilbud og yrker og binder sammen aktørene. Utviklingslandenes mulighet til å utnytte potensialet avhenger imidlertid av deres sosiale, økonomiske og institusjonelle forutsetninger. Mens digitalise3ring forventes å skape økonomisk vekst og høyere produktivitet, kan digitale skillelinjer, ekskludering og ulikhet også ofte observeres. Som et av verdens største land og med rask utbredelse av IKT er India spesielt egnet til å studere forholdet mellom digitalisering og utvikling. Denne boken presenterer en rekke nye bidrag på temaet, med fokus på India i et internasjonalt perspektiv. Hovedbudskapet fra boken sett under ett er av virkningen av IKT avhenger av andre ressurser, kunnskap og institusjonelle forhold. Nasjonal politikk må derfor ikke bare fremme digitalisering som sådan, men også sørge for samtidig utvikling av en rekke andre faktorer i hvert land.

Voting for development? Ruling coalitions and literacy in India

Across the world, governments skew the distribution of state resources for political gain. But does such politicisation of resource allocation affect development trajectories in the long run? We focus on the long-term effects of voting for the ruling coalition on primary education in India. Using a close-election instrumental variable design and drawing on a new socio-economic dataset of India's state assembly constituencies in 1971 and 2001, we examine whether areas represented by members of ruling coalitions experienced greater increases in literacy over 30 years. We find no evidence of this being the case, in the overall data or in relevant sub-samples. The null results are precisely estimated, and are consistent across OLS and 2SLS specifications and several robustness checks. These findings suggest the politicised distribution of some funds in the short run does not affect long-term development trajectories.

Cybersikkerhet

Den teknologiske utviklingen og framveksten av digitale nettverk har ført til noen av de mest dramatiske endringene vi har sett på flere generasjoner. Dette gjelder både endringer i sosial samhandling, men også endringer i den mer generelle samfunnsmessige utviklingen. Disse framskrittene har også hatt viktige implikasjoner for sikkerhetspolitikk, internasjonal politikk og forhold mellom stormakter. I fokusspalten i dette nummeret av Internasjonal Politikk har vi invitert samfunnsvitere til å belyse hvordan cybersikkerhet bidrar til å endre forhold mellom stater og internasjonale organisasjoner samt internasjonal politikk.

Addressing Butterfly Questions: The Planet, Plastic Pollution and Policy Pathways at Japan's G20

In its fifth year, the 2019 G20 Interfaith Forumgathered outside of Tokyo to discuss an ambitious agenda organized under the triple-P thematic of Peace, People and Planet: Pathways Forward. While each of these broad themes guided discussions both in panels and plenaries, from the Forum’s outset it became clear that a reoccurring focus would be the importance of protecting the planet in order to support its people and to promote peace. The data presented at the Forum’s inception plenary was too compelling to ignore: according to multiple speakers, planet degradation has costed approximately $US11 trillion to date. But beyond the financial aspect, the environmental and ethical considerations that go into evaluating why this is a reality were at the core of the discussions among the Forum’s interfaithleaders. This focus instigated a number of compelling “butterfly questions” where participants probed and reflected on the implicit human aspect of environmental degradation. In their discussion, speakers often referenced the postwar tale of former Japanese Emperor Hirohito’s lamentation of no longer seeing butterflies in his imperial garden due to environmental degradation. Taking this issue up with Japan’s political leadership at the time, Hirohito instigated the establishment of an environmental program to address pollution in Tokyo, leading to great results and the return of butterflies to his city garden. But in today’s multipolar system, responding to the magnitude and pace of the transnational issues of pollution and climate change on a global scale at a time when the multilateral system is perceived to be eroding seems simultaneously dire, daunting and difficult. And the likelihood of creating an environment where butterflies would like to return seems increasingly fleeting.