Publikasjoner
Ad-hoc initiatives are shaking up African security
The growing threat of violent extremist groups and how these groups operate across borders has stimulated the emergence of a new type of security arrangement in Africa. These Ad-hoc arrangements are providing greater accountability and flexibility than more established security agreements, write Cedric de Coning and Andrew E. Yaw Tchie.
Disposable rebels: US military assistance to insurgents in the Syrian war
During the Syrian War, the US and other Western countries trained, equipped and paid Syrian rebels to fight the government and, later, root out the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). When states use armed groups to attain foreign policy objectives, control is a key concern. The US sought to enforce such control over providers and recipients of lethal military assistance in the period from 2013–18. We investigate the parallel CIA and Department of Defence assistance programmes . We challenge theoretical assumptions related to the application of the principal-agent model to explain the dynamics of foreign assistance to rebels. We argue that, in the US strategy to control rebels, co-ordinating the providers and dividing the recipients of security assistance were essential conditions. Meanwhile, the delays in recruitment, the limitations on the number of soldiers trained, the short supply of weapons and the strict regulation of the actions carried out by the rebels all reduced the efficacy of the assistance. This way of instrumentalising security assistance helped the US and its Western allies to crush ISIL while avoiding a collapse in Damascus. However, this happened at the expense of rebel cohesion, autonomy, and legitimacy.
Why Terrorism Researchers Should Care about Criminal Responsibility
Criminal responsibility is a basic principle in holding individuals to account for criminal actions. Making exemptions to criminal responsibility when individuals cannot be held responsible for their actions is equally central, and most countries have frameworks allowing for such exemptions for reasons of serious mental health problems. However, despite the recent years’ enormous interests in the possible links between individual ‘mental health’ and involvement in terrorism, the issue of criminal responsibility has apparently so far not been the subject of much interest in the field of terrorism research. This Research Note makes the simple point that criminal responsibility should be of particular interest to terrorism researchers, for two main reasons: the centrality of (political, religious, ideological) motivations for defining a crime as terrorism-related and the sometimes-difficult boundary-setting between such motivations and (psychotic) delusions; and the political nature of terrorism-related crimes.
Russian nuclear energy diplomacy and its implications for energy security in the context of the war in Ukraine
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the possibility of reducing Europe’s energy dependence on Russian resources has been hotly debated. The fossil fuel industries received most attention as European Union leaders first introduced gradual sanctions on Russian coal and later on oil and gas, while Russia responded with supply cuts. However, Russia’s role as a major player in the global nuclear power sector has remained largely below the sanctions radar, despite dependencies on Russian nuclear technology, uranium supplies and handling of spent nuclear fuel. Here we analyse the state nuclear company Rosatom and its subsidiaries as tools of Russian energy statecraft. We map the company’s global portfolio, then categorize countries where Russia is active according to the degree and intensity of dependence. We offer a taxonomy of long-term energy dependencies, highlighting specific security risks associated with each of them. We conclude that the war and Russia’s actions in the energy sector will undermine Rosatom’s position in Europe and damage its reputation as a reliable supplier, but its global standing may remain strong.
Journalism in the Grey Zone: Pluralism and Media Capture in Lebanon and Tunisia
Lebanon and Tunisia are two of the freest countries in the Middle East and North Africa, but elites in both countries seek to manipulate media organisations and individual journalists to shore up support for themselves and attack opponents. This book explores the political role of journalism in these hybrid settings where democratic and authoritarian practices coexist – a growing trend all over the world. Through interviews with journalists in different positions and analyses of key events in recent years, Journalism in the Grey Zone explains the tensions that media instrumentalisation creates in the news media and how journalists navigate conflicting pressures from powerholders and a marginalised populace. Despite ‘capture’ of the media by political and economic actors, journalism remains a powerful and occasionally disruptive force.
Assessing the Effectiveness of the Multinational Joint Task Force
The overall assessment is that the MNJTF is, to a degree, effectively attaining its mandate priorities. As a result of the efforts of the MNJTF there is a decline in the number of terrorist attacks and fatalities in the region.
NATO and the Invasion, One Year On
Next year will mark 75 years since NATO was founded in 1949. The Atlantic alliance has faced many challenges over seven decades, but Russia’s war of conquest in Ukraine might be its biggest test yet.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Afghanistan
I et nytt oppdatert faktaark ser forskere fra NUPI and SIPRIs Climate-related Peace and Security Risks (CPSR) prosjekt på sammenhengen mellom klimaforandringer, fred og sikkerhet i Afghanistan. Afghanistan er svært sårbart for effektene av klimaendringer med hyppigere ekstremvær og temperaturøkninger langt over det globale gjennomsnittet. Disse faktorene, kombinert med arven etter fire tiår med krig, en kompleks humanitær nødsituasjon og en økonomisk krise siden Taliban tok over regjeringsmakten i august 2021, har økt sårbarheten til den afghanske befolkningen. •Klimarelaterte ekstremværhendelser og naturfarer truer afghanske levebrød, øker fattigdom og matusikkerhet, og eroderer motstandsdyktigheten til lokalsamfunn, husholdninger og enkeltpersoner. •Klimaendringer og miljøbelastninger bidrar til omfattende intern fordrivelse og endrede migrasjonsmønstre. Fordrivelse og rask urbanisering kan forverrre mat- og levebrødusikkerhet, legge ytterligere press på miljøressurser og øke sårbarheten til marginaliserte grupper, særlig kvinner og jenter. •I et sikkerhetslandskap som fortsatt er preget av tilstedeværelsen av væpnede aktører, kan klimaendringer øke risikoen for lokale konflikter om land- og vannressurser. •Fraværet av et inkluderende styresystem øker konkurransen over lokale naturressurser og konfliktrisikoen for marginaliserte sosiale grupper og kan forverre politisk og økonomisk ulikhet.
Covid-19 and the Russian Regional Response: Blame Diffusion and Attitudes to Pandemic Governance
As was the case with other federal states, Russia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic was decentralized and devolved responsibility to regional governors. Contrary to the common highly centralized governance in Russia, this approach is thought to have helped insulate the government from criticism. Using local research and analysis based on a national representative survey carried out at the height of the pandemic during the summer of 2021, the article charts the public response to the pandemic across Russia. It examines the regionalization of the response, with an in-depth focus on two of the Russian cities with the highest infection rates but differing responses to the pandemic: St. Petersburg and Petrozavodsk. There are two main findings: at one level, the diffusion of responsibility meant little distinction was made between the different levels of government by the population; at another level, approval of the pandemic measures was tied strongly to trust levels in central and regional government.
Navigating Breakup: Security realities of freezing politics and thawing landscapes in the Arctic
Russlands storoffensiv i Ukraina i februar 2022 påvirket umiddelbart arktisk sikkerhet og samarbeid, både på regionalt og internasjonalt plan. Den arktiske regionen berøres av økte sanksjoner, at vestlige selskaper har trukket seg ut av Russland og at vestlige land har sørget for å ikke lenger være avhengige av russisk energi. Vi har også sett en økning i hybride sikkerhetshendelser. Samtidig fortsetter klimaendringene å forandre Arktis i stadig høyere hastighet. Rapporten «Navigating Breakup: Security realities of freezing politics and thawing landscapes in the Arctic» er skrevet som et innspill til det arktiske rundebordet (Arctic Security Roundtable, ASR) som skal holdes under Munich Security Conference 18. februar 2023. Rapporten forklarer hvordan både gamle og nye faktorer endrer i Arktis og sikkerhetspolitikken i regionen. Kapitlene handler om hvordan klimaendringer påvirker naturen, menneskelig sikkerhet og regionens militæroperasjonelle miljø. Den vurderer også den regionale sikkerhetspolitikken til stormaktene USA, Kina og Russland. Forskerne skriver at de ulike myndighetene må fortsette å vektlegge utfordringene knyttet til Arktis. De må jobbe mot å redusere og håndtere risiko, uavhengig av avsluttede samarbeid med Russland avsluttes andre usikkerhetsmomenter som former politikken.