Publikasjoner

Rational choice theory and demand for petty corruption

This article studies corruption as a rational choice phenomenon. Unlike the widespread game-theory approach to explaining corrupt behaviour, this article attempts to describe corruption as continuous utility-maximizing problem. It comes up with a demand for corruption function, which shows how the readiness of a rational person to accept corrupt income depends on several factors such as official wage rate, severity of punishment, awareness of those penalties, probability of being detected and probability of being prosecuted.

Islam Keeping Violent Jihadism at Bay in Times of Daesh: State Religious Institutions in Lebanon, Morocco and Saudi Arabia since 2013

Can official Islamic institutions play a role to curb Sunni jihadi violence? Most Arab governments have granted a role to such institutions in recent years. Yet, the cases of Lebanon, Morocco and Saudi Arabia exhibit considerable differences: Sunni religious institutions in Lebanon are weak and only have a domestic role, and face difficulties fulfilling this role. The corresponding institutions in Morocco and in Saudi Arabia, however, are powerful and also perform foreign policy roles through religious diplomacy. Mainstream Muslim scholars want to be recognised as allies in the global struggle against jihadi violence; they have common interests with Western and Arab governments in combating jihadi violence. However, in the current climate of government control over official religious institutions, they lack the popular legitimacy needed to fight against violent jihadism. Religious institutions cannot be efficient when used as tools by authoritarian Arab governments. Political subjugation of religious clerics is a major reason for the fragmentation of the religious field and a driver of radicalisation.

Complexity thinking and adaptive peacebuilding

Cedric de Coning explores how complexity thinking can contribute to our understanding of how to create more inclusive peace processes, and how adaptive approaches enable local and external peacebuilders to apply new models of practice, experimentation and learning. These differ fundamentally from approaches where the role of peacebuilders is to implement a pre-designed intervention. De Coning suggests that pressure for change tends to accumulate over time often without signs of progress, and that key system changes occur during periods of turbulence when the self-sustaining ‘path dependencies of violence’ are disrupted. Adaptation does not imply embracing disorder or abandoning goals, but rather being more front-footed, coping with uncertainty, anticipating change and embracing experimentation.

Assessing the Effectiveness of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS)

Rapporten fokuserer på den siste perioden av UNMISS' mandat (2014-18), med sikte på å gi et "øyeblikksbilde" av misjonens arbeid på tvers av dets fire hovedmandatområder: beskyttelse av sivile, tilrettelegging for humanitær levering, promotering menneskerettigheter og støtte til fredsprosessen. Som en stor, flerdimensjonal fredsbevarende operasjon – med 17 000 soldater, 2 000 politi og 2 000 sivile – har UNMISS fått betydelige ressurser og et usedvanlig ambisiøst mandat. Å vurdere samsvaret mellom ressurser og mandat, og måten misjonen har tilpasset sine tilnærminger for å være effektive under ekstremt utfordrende omstendigheter er et hovedmål med denne rapporten. Gjennom hele sin eksistens har UNMISS vært en del av en mye bredere regional og internasjonal konstellasjon av aktører som arbeider for å stabilisere landet og oppmuntre konfliktparter til å gå inn i en meningsfull fredsprosess. I mange tilfeller har UNMISS spilt en begrenset støttende, koordinerende eller på annen måte indirekte rolle i landets overordnede bane; i andre er det en sentral aktør i øynene til befolkningen i Sør-Sudan. Dette utgjør en utfordring for enhver vurdering av oppdraget fordi UNMISS på det meste kan betraktes som en bidragsyter blant mange som jobber sammen for å avslutte borgerkrigen og legge grunnlaget for varig fred. Årsakssammenheng i disse settingene er vanskelig å fastslå. Ikke desto mindre, ved å trekke på de betydelige dataene og analysene som er tilgjengelige, og intervjuer med mer enn 260 mennesker i Sør-Sudan og regionen over flere uker, presenterer denne studien et sett med evidensbaserte funn om virkningen av oppdraget og faktorene som har muliggjort og hindret oppfyllelsen av sitt mandat.

EU climate and energy policy: new challenges for old energy suppliers

Climate policy will transform the EU energy demand mix. This has implications for the main suppliers of fossil fuels to the EU, foremost among which are Algeria, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA. Norway has a better starting point for adapting to changing EU energy demand than the other energy suppliers and therefore represents a best-case scenario. Whatever Norway fails to do, the other countries are even less likely to achieve. The question is whether Norway has been quick enough to exploit the opportunities to play a proactive role in the EU’s energy transition. This chapter argues that it has not, dragging its feet on natural gas vehicles, Norwegian wind power, electricity interconnectors, green battery development and mixing of hydrogen into natural gas. Some possible reasons for the tardiness are Norway’s dual resource course of oil and hydropower, carbon lock-in, energy populism, resource nationalism and blind spots in the perception of Norway’s place in international climate and energy policy.

Reactive Power EU: Russian Aggression and the Development of an EU Arctic Policy

There are many factors driving the development of European Union (EU) foreign policy. While much of the literature focuses on how particular interests, norms or internal processes within Brussels institutions, this article sheds light on the role of external factors in shaping EU foreign policy through an in-depth examination of the recent development of EU Arctic policies. We find that increased Russian aggression, not least in Ukraine, is key to understanding why the EU recently has taken a strong interest in the Arctic. In a more insecure environment, Member States are more prone to develop common policies to counter other powers and gain more influence over future developments, especially as it relates to regime-formation in the Global Commons. In effect, the EU demonstrates a kind of reactive power when it comes to dealing with new geopolitical threats.

Tradition, Nation und der böse Westen: Putin, Erdoğan und die Legitimation ihrer Herrschaft

Predictive Peacekeeping: Strengthening Predictive Analysis in UN Peace Operations

The UN is becoming increasingly data-driven. Until recently, data-driven initiatives have mainly been led by individual UN field missions, but with António Guterres, the new Secretary-General, a more centralized approach is being embarked on. With a trend towards the use of data to support the work of UN staff, the UN is likely to soon rely on systematic data analysis to draw patterns from the information that is gathered in and across UN field missions. This paper is based on UN peacekeeping data from the Joint Mission Analysis Centre (JMAC) in Darfur, and draws on interviews conducted in New York, Mali and Sudan. It will explore the practical and ethical implications of systematic data analysis in UN field missions. Systematic data analysis can help the leadership of field missions to decide where to deploy troops to protect civilians, guide conflict prevention efforts and help preempt threats to the mission itself. However, predictive analysis in UN peace operations will only be beneficial if it also leads to early action. Finally, predictive peacekeeping will not only be demanding of resources, it will also include ethical challenges on issues such as data privacy and the risk of reidentification of informants or other potentially vulnerable people.

Varsel om opprustning

Urovekkende nye missilforsvarsplaner fra USA, skriver Henrik Hiim i en kronikk i Klassekampen.

Å gjøre ingenting er uansvarlig

Regjeringen la i høst frem et forslag til ny lov for Etterretningstjenesten ut på høring. Det viktigste i lovforslaget er det som tidligere har vært omtalt som et «digitalt grenseforsvar», men som i lovforslaget har fått den langt mer presise beskrivelsen «tilrettelagt tilgang til grenseoverskridende elektronisk kommunikasjon». Det handler kort fortalt om at Etterretningstjenesten skal få større tilgang til det digitale rom. Primært vil dette handle om å gjøre forhåndsgodkjente søk i datatrafikken som krysser landets grenser – for å kunne fange opp avanserte dataangrep eller terrorplanlegging. Nupi har nylig sendt inn en høringsuttalelse basert på vår forskning på cybersikkerhet og internasjonal sikkerhetspolitikk.