Publikasjoner

Sunk costs in the exporting activity: Implications for international trade and specialisation

International trade costs may be sunk and not proportional to sales. The paper explores this theoretically, by allowing firms to invest in sales channels or marketing in order to increase demand in each market. The returns to such investments will, ceteris paribus, be higher in markets with lower variable trade costs (e.g. transport costs). Firms will therefore invest and sell more at home than in foreign markets, and more in foreign markets with low variable trade costs. Sunk export costs will therefore amplify the trade-reducing impact of other trade barriers, and dampen the «home market effect» whereby large countries tend to be net exporters of differentiated goods.

Strengthening Cooperative Threat Reduction with Russia : The Norwegian Experience

Many nuclear safety and security challenges remain in Northwest Russia. Years of international cooperation – and substantial funding – are required to deal with the legacy of the extensive nuclear activities of the Cold War. Among the more urgent projects that call for international attention are the safe dismantling of nuclear attack submarines and clean-up at naval storage facilities, e.g. at Andreeva Bay. For nearly a decade, Norway and other countries have been working cooperatively with Russia to improve the situation. While important progress has been made, much of the foreign support has come with some hard-learned experiences. However, the dialog established, the cooperative framework institutionalized, and today’s understanding of the respective concerns, priorities, and practices of the actors involved should create a sound basis for new rounds of cooperative and concerted efforts to limit the persistent nuclear security and safety risks in the region. In this report, past and ongoing activities for remedial actions in Northwest Russia are assessed, and suggestions for continued and improved cooperation are presented. The survey has been conducted as part of the Norwegian contribution to the international research consortium on «Strengthening the Global Partnership: Protecting Against the Spread of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons».

From territorial defence to comprehensive security? European integration and the changing Norwegian and Swedish security identities

This paper analyses the relationship between the European integration process and the recent changes in the Norwegian and the Swedish national security identities. The aim of the paper is to compare developments in the Norwegian and the Swedish security identities in the 1990s and to evaluate the extent and scope of Europeanisation in the two cases. The fact that both Norway and Sweden had very traditional security discourses at the beginning of the 1990s and that it is possible to detect shifts away from this traditionalism in parallel with the development towards a European security dimension should prove that a Europeanisation has indeed occurred. While several researchers have studied the influence of the EU on national institutions and policies, less attention has been given to the Europeanisation of national security identities. This paper is therefore an attempt to fill this gap. The fact that Sweden has become a member of the EU while Norway has not also makes these two countries good cases for examining the extent and scope of their respective Europeanisation.

Sivil-militær splittelse og amerikansk sikkerhetspolitikk

Opp gjennom 1990-årene utviklet det seg en betydelig avstand mellom de militære og viktige deler av USAs politiske elite, noe som hadde merkbare konsekvenser for den sikkerhetspolitiske beslutningsprosessen. Særlig tydelig kom dette til syne i spørsmål om internasjonale militære engasjement, men også viktige militære omstillingsplaner kjørte seg fast i beslutningsprosessen. I dette notatet foretas det en kartlegging av hva det såkalte «civil-military gap» består i. Deretter gis det en vurdering av årsakene til denne utviklingen med sikte på for å finne ut om vi her har å gjøre med et vedvarende problem i amerikansk forsvars- og sikkerhetspolitikk, eller om dette kun er av situasjonsavhengig art. Avslutningsvis analyseres mulige konsekvenser for amerikansk sikkerhetspolitikk. Notatets hovedkonklusjon er at den sivil-militære kløft trolig er av varig karakter, men at mulige langtidseffekter av 11. september kan endre situasjonen

How to deal with North Korea: Lessons from the JCPOA

Kan valg av eksportmarked forklares med teorien om investeringer under usikkerhet? En økonomisk studie av atferden til norske fiskeeksportører

I denne artikkelen gjøres det rede for hvordan nye teorier for investeringer under usikkerhet kan anvendes til å forklare bedrifters eksportbeslutninger. Det gis en empirisk analyse basert på eksportadferden til norske fiskeeksportører. Valg av eksportdestinasjon er søkt forklart ved ulike landspesifikke egenskaper, samt opplysningen om hvorvidt bedriften har eksporterfaring til landet. Hvis valg av eksportdestinasjon medfører ugjenkallelige investeringer, vil teorien for investeringer under usikkerhet predikere at høy valutakurs-usikkerhet reduserer sannsynligheten for å etablere seg i et marked. Jeg finner at inneværende års valutakurs-usikkerhet gir signifikant effekt på sannsynligheten for å være i et marked. Derimot finner jeg ingen signifikant effekt av denne variabelen for valg av eksportland for førstegangsetablerere. Alternative forklaringsvariable med signifikant effekt er korrupsjonsindeksen CPI, velstandsnivå, geografisk avstand og markedets størrelse. Tilstedeværelsen av andre norske eksportbedrifter påvirket eksportbeslutningen positivt, noe som tyder på eksistens av positive eksternaliteter i eksportaktiviteten. Persistens i eksportstatus gir tentativ støtte til eksistensen av ugjenkallelige kostnader.

Geography and growth - some empirical evidence

Income in the world does not distribute randomly in space. There are geographic clusters of rich and poor countries. Also growth rates tend to be spatially clustered. Spatial regression analyses indicate that geographical clustering may be an inherent ingredient in growth mechanisms: Growth in one country stimulates growth in surrounding countries. A simple exogenous growth model with technology diffusion through trade in capital goods can account for some, but not all of these empirical patterns of growth and income distribution.

French, UK, and US Policies to Support Peacekeeping in Africa: Current Status and Future Prospects

In May 1997, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced their joint “P-3 Initiative”, to harmonize their peacekeeping capacity-building programs in Africa and foster an open dialogue between donors and recipients. The capacity-building programs of France, the UK and the US have since undergone numerous transformations. The centerpiece of French policy, the Renforcement des capacités Africaines de maintien de la paix (RECAMP) has had comparatively few changes to its basic structure, but has been scaled down. The UK African Peacekeeping Training Support Programme has given way to a much larger and more ambitious initiative. The US African Crisis Response Initiative (ACRI) has evolved significantly and will undergo a more fundamental change in 2002, including shedding its name. Moreover, Washington initiated a new capacity-building policy in 2001, which dwarfed ACRI in terms of resources and introduced the provision of lethal equipment. In November 2001, the “P-3” met in London to assess their programs. They could take satisfaction that progress had been made on a number of levels. Much more importantly, however, the three partners have created little in the way of synergy. A question that cuts to the core of the capacitybuilding programs is: Does the training or equipment offered make African recipients any more willing or able to undertake peacekeeping on their continent? The answer is far from clear. As for the enhanced capacity, much of what is being offered is of questionable value. To some extent, France, the UK, and the US have acknowledged some of their own programs’ limitations, and they are attempting to redress these weaknesses. Government officials are now much more receptive to criticism and suggestions for change.

Multinationals Searching for R&D Spillovers : A Survey of the Literature

This paper surveys the literature on R&D and technology spillovers as a motive for FDI. During the last years, a growing body of theoretical studies has generated formal arguments supporting the economic rationale for such behaviour. Yet, theoretical contributions are clustered within a few schools and a wider approach is necessary in order to understand the mechanisms that relate R&D spillovers to FDI. The empirical literature is more numerous, but provides ambiguous conclusions with respect to the strength of this motive. Micro studies provide less supportive results as compared to studies based on more aggregate data. Studies based on patent information are generally supportive to the existence of this motive.

International R&D Spillovers and the Absorptive Capacity of Multinationals

This paper studies R&D spillovers as a motive for firms to go multinational. The establishment of a foreign subsidiary may increase a firm’s ability to learn from foreign R&D activity since R&D spillovers between firms are moderated by geographical distance. As opposed to earlier studies on this subject, we also model the concept of absorptive capacity where spillovers are endogenised as a function of the firms’ own R&D investments. We employ a three-stage Cournot duopoly model to identify under what conditions a firm chooses to service a foreign market through exports or localised production (going multinational). With exogenous R&D investments, the absorptive capacity effect contributes to increase the gains from going multinational when the firm is a technology leader in terms of R&D. If R&D investments are endogenous, only medium-sized absorptive capacity effects will result in firms going multinational. Also, higher spillover rates do not necessarily drive down R&D and profits for the multinational firm. This stands in contrast to models that ignore the aspect of absorptive capacity.