Publikasjoner
Russian Governance of the North Caucasus: Dilemmas of force and inclusion
While Vladimir Putin’s Russia struggles to strike a balance between security and freedom within the Russian polity, nowhere is the problem as acute as in the eastern parts of the North Caucasus. This chapter reviews Russia’s approach to the republics in that region since Putin came to power, and asks what the potential for mobilisation against Russian rule in the North Caucasus amounts to. The current decrease in violence in the region is often taken as a sign of ‘success’ in curbing the insurgency. I argue that the heavy focus on repression and exclusion in Russian policies may well backfire and create conditions for a new mobilisation against Russian dominance.
Norden i verden
Hver for seg er de nordiske landene relativt små, men sammen er de på størrelse med en stormakt. Og med en verdenspolitikk i endring er samarbeidet mellom disse statene enda viktigere enn på lenge.
Islamic Insurgents in the MENA Region. Global Threat or Regional Menace?
This working paper analyses a broad range of Islamic insurgents, spanning from the Sahel and North Africa to the Middle East, examining the threat that these groups represent on a regional and global scale. We assess their local, regional and global strategies and evaluate the extent to which they make use of Jihadist discourse to further local/regional aims, or whether they are more truly devoted to a global struggle, operationally as well as in discourse and rhetoric. We make use of several analytical dimensions and factors in a way that allows us to develop a threat assessment that seeks to disentangle the local, the regional and the global levels. In doing so, our aim is also to develop a methodological framework that may be used for analytical updates and future research in this region and elsewhere.
Resolving Brexit
Brexit is in crisis. The options are limited, and they have not changed much since 2016. Now, time is running out. Exiting the EU without an agreement, widely recognized as the worst option, is the default. Moreover, this is no longer simply a question about how to deal with the EU. Brexit is a test of whether a democratic political system can resolve difficult and divisive issues in a credible and robust way. The stakes are therefore high. Themes Europe The EU Diplomacy International organizations Researchers Ulf Sverdrup Director BI Nick Sitter Professor, BI Norwegian Business School Events Fri 25 Jan 2019 Europe through the Russian TV lens Time: 09:00 Location: NUPI What images of Europe does Russian TV convey to its viewers? What are the dominant Russian media narratives on Europe? Wed 6 Feb 2019 Chinese cyber security and consequences for Europe All events about Europe, the eu, diplomacy, international organizations (total 4) There is now a genuine risk that the political system in the UK tears itself apart, or at least inflicts deep and lasting scars on itself, and ends up with a solution that very few would prefer. As long as Brexit is exclusively a Conservative project, or even exclusively Theresa May’s project, this impasse is unlikely to be broken. What to do? The most obvious way of moving beyond the present stalemate is to establish a cross-party task force.
Stormaktsinteresser og sikkerhetspolitiske utviklingstrekk i Arktis. Mulige implikasjoner for Norge
Arktis blir i økende grad trukket inn i de generelle politiske utviklingstrekkene globalt. Ser vi endringene i stormaktenes intensjoner, kapabiliteter og adferd under ett, avtegner det seg et tydelig bilde: regionen prioriteres høyere av så godt som samtlige aktører, den forventes å bli viktigere i økonomisk sammenheng, og den militære betydningen av regionen er økende. Denne policy brief-en ser på implikasjoner for norsk sikkerhetspolitikk i Arktis og gir noen anbefalinger til norske myndigheter
The Civilian Casualty Tracking Analysis and Response Cell in the African Union Mission in Somalia: an emerging best practice for AU peace support o...
The Civilian Casualty Tracking Analysis and Response Cell (CCTARC) tracks harm to civilians caused by the African Union Mission in Somalia’s (AMISOM) operations including death, injury, Sexual Exploitation and Abuse (SEA) and damage to property including livestock. The cell faces three main types of challenges: • Structural: the sectoral composition of AMISOM hinders effective exchange of information. • Operational: there is no fund to pay amends to victims. • Political: in the midst of competing strategic pressures, the CCTARC has not been adequately prioritised by the mission, African Union Commission, Troop Contributing Countries, and donors.
Har ikke EØS motstanderne fått med seg brexit?
Det pågår en debatt om EØS-avtalen. SV ønsker å utrede alternativer. Noen av EØS-motstanderne ønsker å gå tilbake til frihandelsavtalene fra 1973. Har de ikke fulgt med på brexit? Frihandelsavtalene ga tollfri adgang for store deler av norsk industrieksport. De fungerte i noen grad etter hensikten, men allerede da de trådte i kraft, ble de sett på som utdaterte.
Frykten for Bolsonaro
Brasils nye president kan skape utfordringer også for Norge. Det er naivt å tro at Brasil-Norge relasjonene vil være upåvirket dersom alle sider av Bolsonaros politikk gjennomføres. Samarbeidet om klima og regnskog synes å være særlig utsatt.
Desinformasjon virker
Omfanget av desinformasjon er større enn mange tror. Spørsmålet er hvordan vi kan beskytte oss, skriver Ulf Sverdrup i denne DN-kronikken.
Norway and the changing Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union
For decades, Norway has cooperated with the European Union in matters of foreign policy, security and defence. It has thus participated in EU civilian and military operations, aligned itself with EU political declarations and restrictive measures against states and/or individuals, and collaborated with the European Defence Agency. Unlike other frameworks of cooperation between the EU and Norway, such as the EEA and Schengen agreements, the cooperation in foreign policy, security and defence does not rely on a single setup, with elaborate institutional arrangements and dynamic obligations. Rather, Norway joins forces with the Union in an ad hoc fashion and often based on informal arrangements. This allows for flexibility, but also entails that Norway has few formal channels for exerting influence on EU CFSP decisions to which it subsequently subscribes. Against this backdrop, and as the EU has become more active in this policy area, Norway has shown a renewed interest in deepening its relationship with the Union in CFSP matters. This report examines the ways in which Norway can enhance its cooperation and develop its institutional arrangements with the EU in this fast-evolving field. The discussion is based on an assessment of what the EU is able to offer in view of its constitutional framework, as informed by its on-going discussions with the UK on a future security partnership post-Brexit. Given the increasing interactions between the CFSP and other fields of the EU’s activities, the analysis also discusses whether Norway may draw a cooperation dividend from its participation in the single market through the EEA, to build a deeper and more participatory cooperation with the EU in CFSP matters. The report envisages four possible ways of enhancing the Norway-EU cooperation in the area CFSP: an extension of the present cooperation by ad hoc participation in new CFSP initiatives, a more active use of other existing EU-Norway frameworks of cooperation including the EEA, the setting up of a distinct EU-Norway CFSP agreement and the participation in a multilateralised EU-UK CFSP partnership.