Myanmar: A Political Economy Analysis
Myanmar may for a long time remain in a transitional state with an uncertain future. After a series of political and economic liberalization reforms from 2011 onwards, Myanmar’s political trajectory remains open-ended, although the most plausible scenario remains a continued slow democratization process. The democratic opening has been driven largely by the interest of the military rulers in changing Myanmar’s relations with Western states and thereby gaining leverage vis-à-vis China. Continued military influence, persistent capacity problems in political parties and parliamentary politics, weak channels of political representation and limited administrative capacity give rise to critical questions about the substance of democratization and economic development in Myanmar. The country’s informal economy is one of the largest in the world and is upheld by informal elite pacts that were formed in the military era, often involving high-ranking officers and crony companies. Along with a high level of corruption and lack of redistributive mechanisms the continuing cronyism hinders inclusive growth. If these economic structures persist, social and ethnic conflicts may intensify and progress towards further democratization stall. Despite this, foreign direct investments in resource extraction and other sectors have been on the rise since 2011 and are likely to continue. Myanmar is also ranked as the world’s second-most vulnerable country to climate change. The government needs a better understanding of climate change and its effects – both its direct impacts on Myanmar and its indirect impacts via neighbouring countries such as Bangladesh. As Myanmar remains at a crossroads, smart external assistance may have greater long-term impact in Myanmar than in other recipient countries where the situation is less volatile. However, donors may also become increasingly frustrated and reduce their assistance because of the ongoing Rohingya crisis and because of the limited local capacity to absorb international assistance.
Norwegian exports in global value chains
This study analyses the participation of the Norwegian economy in global value chains in 2000-2014, following the gross exports decomposition framework in Koopman, Wang and Wei (2014) and using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). The analysis shows that Norway increased its participation in global value chains through both backward and forward linkages, but the latter is more dominant and re ects Norway's endowments in natural resources. Moreover, the study reveals that services exports increased substantially during the period analysed and are even higher than manufacturing exports if measured in value-added terms rather than gross terms. This highlights the key role of services in global value chains as well as the relevance of measuring trade in value-added terms.
Great Powers and Arctic Politics (GPARC)
GPARC analyser hvordan stormakter (USA, Russland og Kina) forholder seg til maritim politikk i Arktis....
NY ARTIKKEL: Digitaliseringsfella
Fallgruvene ved digitalisering i fattige land får for liten oppmerksomhet, mener NUPI-forsker.
Political values in Norway’s relations with China: Standing ground or giving in?
The six-year freeze in bilateral political relations following the award of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize makes Norway an interesting case study of political values in relations with China. The big picture, however, is that Norway still fits into the pattern of many other European countries. While political values feature prominently in Norway’s general foreign policy, explicit government level criticism of China is rare, and the avenues for official discussions on values-laden issues are largely limited to closed settings.
Norske svar på internasjonale utfordringer: Retorisk endring, stabilitet i tiltak
Norsk utenrikspolitikk omtales ofte som preget av konsensus og stabilitet, hvor kobling til NATO og USA, støtte til FN, og en aktiv europapolitikk er hovedelementer. Inspirert av innsikter fra institusjonell teori om «organisert hykleri» – altså hvordan organisasjoner ofte må frikoble tale og handling – analyserer vi norsk utenrikspolitikk. Vi finner at det er tendenser til slikt integrert flertydighet, som ikke er overraskende gitt de motstridende krav og forventninger som preger våre omgivelser. Vi peker på hvordan et slikt perspektiv kan bidra til kritisk refleksjon rundt effektivitet i ulike virkemidler, og diskuterer også hvordan dette preger tilnærmingen til «Norden», som del av den utenrikspolitiske verktøykassen.
Introduksjon: Nordiske svar på geopolitiske utfordringer
Denne artikkelen introduserer et temanummer om hvordan de fem nordiske landene – Danmark, Finland, Island, Norge og Sverige – fremstiller og responderer på geopolitiske utfordringer i sine omgivelser. Nordens strategiske beliggenhet – i Europas nordlige utkant, med grense mot Russland på den ene siden og store havområder på den andre – gjør at endringer i sikkerhetspolitikken og i maktbalansen mellom stormaktene er av umiddelbar relevans. Artiklene drøfter hovedtrekk ved de nordiske landenes nåværende utenrikspolitikk, hver for seg, men til dels også sammen, sett i lys både av historiske linjer og nåværende geopolitiske rammebetingelser. Med særlig vekt på de enkelte lands relasjoner til stormaktene USA, Russland, EU og Kina, og til sikkerhetsinstitusjonene FN og NATO, fremhever bidragene noen særtrekk ved den hjemlige utenrikspolitiske debatten i de enkelte land, og kartlegger hvilke ressurser og virkemidler det enkelte land typisk velger å ta i bruk i møte med ulike utfordringer.
The cyber frontier and digital pitfalls in the Global South
How does digitalisation lead to new kinds of global connections and disconnections in the Global South? And what are the pitfalls that accompany this development? Much of the policy literature on digitalisation and development has focused on the importance of connecting developing countries to digital networks. Good connection to digital networks may have a fundamental impact on societies, changing not only how individuals and businesses navigate, operate and seek opportunities, but also as regards relations between government and the citizenry. However, the rapid pace of this development implies that digital technologies are being put to use before good, functional regulatory mechanisms have been developed and installed. The resultant shortcomings – in state mechanisms, institutions, coordination mechanisms, private mechanisms, general awareness, public knowledge and skills – open the door to new kinds of vulnerabilities. Herein lie dangers, but also opportunities for donor/recipient country exchange. Instead of adding to the already substantial literature on the potential dividends, this article examines a less studied issue: the new societal vulnerabilities emerging from digitalisation in developing countries. While there is wide agreement about the need to bridge the gap between the connected and the disconnected, the pitfalls are many.