EUs forslag til nytt tjenestedirektiv : Samfunns- og næringsøkonomiske konsekvenser for Norge
North-South Trade and Wages with Complete Specialisation : Modifying the Stolper-Samuelson Relationship
From the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem, it is expected that North-South trade reduces the real wage of unskilled labour in the North. This paper questions the underlying assumption that trading countries are diversified, and examines theoretically the trade-wage link when the South is completely specialised. While it remains true that trade with the South negatively affects wages in the North, it is no longer the case that the poorer the trade partner is, the more harmful is trade for Northern wages. The negative wage impact is largest when the South has an intermediate capital-labour ratio, since it is then a more efficient producer. This also gives the largest aggregate welfare gains from trade in the North. The specialised South also gains from trade, and these gains are relatively larger, the more extreme is its factor composition. But even if the poorest countries gain from trade, capital accumulation may be more important for their welfare.
Uniform or Different Policies
I analyse the negotiation between two countries, or regions, that are trying to make an agreement in order to internalize externalities. Local preferences are local information, but reluctance to participate in the agreement is signaled by delay. Conditions are derived for when it is efficient to restrict the attention to policies that are uniform across regions - with and without side payments - and when it is optimal to forbid side payments in the negotiations. While policy differentiation and side payments let the policy be tailed to local conditions, they create conflicts between the regions and thus delay. If political centralization implies uniformity, as is frequently assumed in the federalism literature, the results describe when centralization outperforms decentralized cooperation. But the results also provide a foundation for this uniformity assumption and characterize when it is likely to hold.
Tollnedtrapping for industrivarer i WTO - Virkninger for Norge
Notatet diskuterer mulige virkninger av tollreduksjoner gjennom forhandlinger i WTO for eksport av norske industrivarer. Ulike forslag om tollreduksjoner, som bruken av den såkalte Girards formel diskuteres. Det vises at reduksjoner i tråd med Girards formel kan gi økt norsk eksport på i underkant av to prosent for et utvalg av land. Virkningene er ulikt fordelt over handelspartnere og sektorer. For land Norge har preferanseavtaler med gir tollreduksjoner gjennom WTO ingen økning i eksport. For andre land vil tollreduksjoner gi til dels betydelig effekt.
EFTAs frihandelsavtaler: Betydning for Norge
Norges eksport er de siste ti år blitt «globalisert» ved at en klart lavere andel går til EU, og eksporten øker til en rekke nye markeder. Det handelspolitiske forhold til land utenfor EU blir derfor viktigere. Notatet analyserer hvordan EFTAs nettverk av frihandelsavtaler bør utformes for å sikre norsk markedsadgang i disse nye markedene, der barrierene for vare- og tjenesteeksport i en del tilfeller er høye. Det har de siste år skjedd en rask akselerasjon i utbredelsen av frihandelsavtaler på verdensbasis. EFTA har i dag frihandelsavtaler med 12 land utenfor EU-25, og forhandlinger med ytterligere fem land. EFTAs avtaler og initiativer omfatter en del av de viktigste nye markeder, men også en del land der handelen er svært liten og avtalene sannsynligvis vil ha liten effekt. Flere viktige land mangler på «EFTAs liste». Hensyn til markedsadgang for eksport taler for at EFTA bør vurdere frihandelsavtaler med en del viktige land i Asia (for eksempel Japan, Sør-Korea og Kina) og Øst-Europa (Russland og Ukraina), samt i Amerika (Brasil og USA). For å unngå at frihandelsavtaler underminerer WTO, bør EFTA-landene samtidig arbeide for ikkediskriminerende handelsliberalisering i WTO, særlig ved å fjerne tollen for industrivarer.
The Intangible Globalization : Explaining the Patterns of International Trade in Services
We identify the determinants of service trade and foreign affiliate sales in a gravity model, using recently collected bilateral data for the OECD countries and their trading partners, as well as new indicators for barriers to service imports and foreign affiliate sales. We emphasize the strong links between service FDI and trade, since a large proportion of trade is facilitated through foreign affiliate sales. Trade barriers and corruption in the importing country have a strong negative impact on service trade and foreign affiliate sales. We find a strong home market effect in service trade, and rich countries do not tend to import more, which may indicate that rich countries have a competitive advantage in service trade. Free trade agreements do not contribute to increased service trade. A full liberalization of international trade in services in our model, lifts exports by as much as 50% for some countries, and no less than 30%.
A Global Race for Free Trade Agreements : From the Most to the Least Favored Nation Treatment?
The article examines the currently expanding worldwide network of bilateral free trade agreements. Following regional integration in Europe and later the Americas, the process in East Asia has accelerated from 2002. A distinctive feature of the current stage is the expansion of FTAs beyond geographical regions and into global space, hence challenging WTOs supremacy on inter-continental trade rules. Setbacks in the WTO Doha Round may stimulate a further move towards "global bilateralism". While integration between geographically distant countries will have a smaller impact than integration between neighbours, countries may nevertheless gain from "global bilateralism". The more such agreements in place, the greater is the incentive for new ones. Even if political obstacles hinder some agreements, the process is currently accelerating. While it is rational for countries to pursue such agreements, the process is currently accelerating. While it is rational for countries to pursue such agreements, they should in parallel work for multilateral trade liberalisation in order to reduce the discriminatory impact of FTAs. This is needed if we are to avoud that "Most Favored Nation" treatment under the WTO actually becomes "Least Favored Nation" treatment: Rules that only apply to countries that are left outside the "free trade race".