Climate, Peace and Security Research Paper: Insights on Climate, Peace and Security
Climate change is transforming and redefining the global security and development landscape. United Nations member states are increasingly acknowledging that the impacts of climate change have implications for international peace and security. The growing recognition of this link has been reflected by the UN Security Council adopting over 70 related resolutions and presidential statements since 2017. Since 2021 the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) have analysed the links between climate, peace and security in countries and regions on the agenda of the UN Security Council. With support from Norway during its elected membership of the UN Security Council in 2021–22, NUPI and SIPRI jointly published 11 Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheets covering Afghanistan, the Central African Republic (CAR), Colombia, Ethiopia, Iraq, Mali, the Sahel region, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan. These fact sheets build on an analysis of four pathways from climate change to conflict that were identified in the context of East Africa; and supplement research on South and South East Asia, West Africa, and the Middle East and North Africa. The relationships between climate change and conflict have been studied in numerous other empirical studies and literature reviews with complementary findings. This paper outlines how climate change can affect peace and security (section I) and how climate change interacts with social, economic and political vulnerabilities in the countries covered by the Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheets (section II). The paper then synthesizes (section III) four key findings from the fact sheet series: (a) livelihood security is important, if not crucial, to the ways in which climate change influences conflict risk; (b) the impacts of climate change in one location can increase security risks in other locations; (c) the impacts of climate change interact with local vulnerabilities in ways that can create new security risks and exacerbate existing risks, such as conflict; and (d) conflict is not an inevitable consequence of climate change, but can be a response to its effects. This paper concludes with recommendations for how the UN Security Council shapes policies to address the complex challenges arising from climate change (section IV).
The Ukraine War, the New Geopolitics of Energy, and Norway
This study aims to address the question of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has changed patterns of regional and global energy interactions and how this influences perceptions of Norway as a major regional energy actor. To examine these important questions, we will proceed in the following manner. In the first part of this study, we will present our operational understanding of the key concepts shaping our thinking about the relationship between the geopolitical and geoeconomic aspects of international cooperation and rivalry. Here we also will discuss the role of various national instruments of power in the pursuit of geopolitical and geoeconomic objectives. In the second part we narrow the scope of this examination to shed light on the relationship between geopolitics and energy in global and regional contexts, paying special attention to trends shaping the international energy game. This includes the changing role of Russia; how green energy transition reshapes international energy cooperation and how old and new energy-related policy instruments are evolving in this rapidly changing energy landscape. In addition, we also examine the nature of the old and new threats to energy flows, particularly those related to critical energy infrastructure. In the third part of this study, we examine the direct and indirect impacts the Russian war against Ukraine has had on energy markets and what implications these recent developments have for the position of Norway as a major energy actor. Norway’s importance for energy consumers, especially in Europe, has increased because of the war. Although the global energy trends discussed in the previous section also influence Norway and Europe, the focus in the latter section is on the regional dimension as Norway’s energy supplies reach first and foremost Europe. Finally, we examine possible scenarios that may influence energy markets and geopolitical conditions, with special attention paid to global factors with the potential to cause serious shifts. Part of the focus is on possible technological breakthroughs that may change the parameters of the international energy interactions and undermine the position of traditional energy producers and exporters.
Climate change in the Arctic: Security implications and consequences for military operations – a MCDC project (CLIMARCSEC)
Climate-change occurs at some of the highest rates in the Arctic regions resulting in both emerging risks and new opportunities....
Mapping renewable energy policy development at the state level in Mexico
This report maps renewable energy policy development at the state (provincial) level in Mexico and tracks early experiences with renewable energy deployment in four selected Mexican states. “Renewable energy policy” refers to the policy instruments that state governments have adopted to facilitate renewable energy deployment (e.g., long-term climate and energy strategies and subsidies), and the institutionalization of these instruments through the establishment of state entities responsible for their implementation (e.g., state energy agencies).
A role for state governments in social licensing for renewable energy projects in Mexico
In Mexico, energy governance has mainly been a federal matter. However, the state (regional) governments, motivated by environmental and climate concerns, economic development opportunities, and social community needs, have recently started to explore ways to facilitate renewable energy development. But although state governments claim renewable energy reduces energy poverty and express support for a just transition, these projects do not seem to have social licenses—explicit support for them to proceed—at the local community level. The discrepancy between rhetoric and reality is related to the way these projects are negotiated and implemented. In this policy brief we examine two paths that the Mexican states can take to improve the social licensing of renewable energy projects. First, they can establish a framework for ethical conduct and evaluation of the potential impacts of renewable energy projects, including elements such as adherence to international standards, inclusive planning processes, and environmental and social impact assessments. Second, they can implement proactive, engagement-focused measures that empower state and local governments to facilitate renewable energy projects and reduce transaction costs.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Democratic Republic of the Congo
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Somalia
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Somalia
Somalia experienced its worst drought on record from 2021 to 2023, with an unprecedented five consecutive failed rainy seasons that displaced hundreds of thousands of people, undermined livelihoods and raised the spectre of famine in some areas. From August 2022, clan militias and the Somali armed forces launched operations against al-Shabab in some of the most drought-affected regions. As climate change and conflict continue apace in Somalia, the need for robust analyses and responses to climate-related security risks has never been greater.
Climate, Peace and Security in Somalia