Climate, Peace and Security in Somalia

In a new updated Fact Sheet from the joint NUPI and SIPRI Climate-related Peace and Security Risks Project (CPSR), the team explore the nexus between climate change, peace, and security in Somalia.

Published: September 28, 2023 Cedric H. de Coning Minoo Koefoed Thor Olav Iversen Asha Ali Florian Krampe Kyungmee Kim Katongo Seyuba Kheira Tarif

Somalia experienced its worst drought on record from 2021-2023, with an unprecedented five consecutive failed rainy seasons that displaced hundreds of thousands, undermined livelihoods and raised the spectre of famine in some areas. From August 2022, clan militias and the Somali Armed Forces (SAF) launched operations against Al Shabab in some of Somalia’s most drought-affected regions. As climate change and conflict continue apace in Somalia, the need for robust analyses and responses to climate-related security risks has never been greater.

The convergence of climate change and violent conflict is undermining livelihoods in Somalia, with impacts for the security of local economies, households and individuals.
More than a million Somalis were displaced by the effects of climate change last year. Many vulnerable people are living in protracted displacement, in rural and hard-to-reach areas.
An escalation in conflict operations against Al Shabab in central Somalia is coinciding with the effects of the multi-year drought, complicating a precarious humanitarian situation.
Climate-related disasters have a disproportionate effect on minority groups in Somalia, while rent-seeking behaviour continues to be a risk for local resilience.

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has stressed the need for strategies to assess and manage the risks of climate change, ecological change, and natural disasters in Somalia, including in programming by the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Federal Member States (FMS). The combined impacts of climate change and conflict in Somali communities, especially the drought and ongoing military operations in central Somalia, require cross-sectoral collaboration in analysing and responding to climate-related security risks.

You can read the fact sheet, and its recommendations, here. A pdf version of the fact sheet can be downloaded here.