Informal taxation and community-driven development: Evidence from south-central Somalia
We are excited to announce that this semester’s fourth seminar in our Tax for Development Webinar Series with Vanessa van den Boogaard and Fabrizio Santoro (both at the International Centre for Tax and Development) presenting the study "informal Taxation and community-driven development: Evidence from south-central Somalia".
Restructuring state power in Sudan
Developing post-conflict economic policies in Sudan remains a significant challenge for the Sudanese transitional government and the international community. This article argues that understanding the conflict, its costs and the progress made during the current peace agreement are essential for advancing policy reforms in Sudan. The Sudanese transitional government has attempted to implement reforms, but little progress has been made because the civilian elements operate outside of the existing state power. The previous regimes policies sustained conflict(s) through both passive and active enablement of the Sudanese security forces, which means that the restructuring of state power is essential to place Sudan on the right course towards sustained democracy. This article posits that addressing structural reforms in Sudan means establishing control over the economy, defense, and security sectors.
The Pandemic as a Litmus Test for (Dis)Engagement of External Powers in Central Asia
This study provides an empirical overview of pandemic-related external assistance to the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan by partner countries and international organisations between March and September 2020. This state-of-the-art review of Central Asia official development assistance extends to pledged funds beyond this period. The systemic comparison of donors suggests that there is no single actor that stands out as a champion of economic recovery; these are mostly small, token contributions. By contrast, targeted medical assistance has been far more significant, albeit focused on short-term crisis management of the pandemic. There has been only a handful of assistance projects that reflect a long-term stake in Central Asia's economic recovery and the pandemic showed little evidence of the Great Game competition for regional geopolitical influence. Thus, the relations between big powers and Central Asia need to be reconsidered and given a new meaning that would better reflect the interests and interaction between the two parties. The pandemic showed that these relations were mainly pragmatic during the global health crisis with no external partner showing interest in projecting and expanding strategic influence on the region. The region needs to build its internal resilience against new crises and avoid excessive reliance on external assistance in the long term.
Hvem er gått ut på dato
Will the EU-US trade agreement lead to losses rather than economic gains? The basis for such claims is weak.
Dyrt å eksportere
Sunk costs are an entry barrier for enterprises that want to start export.
Uforståelig påstand
While it is important to have an academic and political debate on the effects of an EU-US trade agreement (TTIP), it is too easy to write off the contributions you do not like as "outdated".
Discovering Opportunities in the Pandemic? Four Economic Response Scenarios for Central Asia
The COVID-19 crisis represents not only an unprecedented economic disruption but also an opportunity for Central Asia. A specific economic policy response may trigger either game-changing reforms that can facilitate the development of full-fledged market institutions or lead to a protracted crisis that would jeopardize almost 30-year long market economy transition progress. As it is rather unclear where the recovery pendulum will make its final swing, the current situation provides fruitful soil for various assumptions. This paper proposes and examines four scenarios of economic response strategies for the region as a whole, and for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in particular, that result in unique development trajectories. The paper employs the foresight methodology to build four scenarios related to the situation after the lockdown is fully lifted. The scenarios serve the purpose of helping decision makers to embark on informed decisions while shaping anti-crisis measures and better understand causality mechanisms behind their policy choices.
Mekanismer for screening av utenlandske investeringer. Oversikt over et utvalg land
Etter tusenårsskiftet har åpne økonomier i økende takt satt i gang prosesser for å vurdere risikoen av utenlandsinvesteringer. Bakgrunnen for dette er økende grad av investeringer fra mindre transparente økonomier, frykt for svekket konkurranse blant internasjonale aktører, samt teknologiske endringer som kan gjøre stater mer utsatte. Dette har blant annet fått EU til å vedta en regulering som etablerer et rammeverk for screeningmekanismer (Regulation (EU) 2019/452). Utviklingen de seneste årene - og særlig i løpet av COVID-19 pandemien - er at slike mekanismer ekspanderer, blir mer detaljerte og permanente, og omfatter større deler av økonomien, med lavere terskelkriterier og dermed et økende antall transaksjoner som screenes.
Swiss-EU Relations With a Focus on the Current Situation
Michael Ambühl has negotiated several Swiss-EU agreements and presents here (with co-author Lara Lenz) an overview of recent developments in the relationship, that has been under pressure because the EU has demanded a more EEA-like arrangement. See also discussion at NUPI webinar (scroll down to find link). In 1992, Swiss voters rejected an accession to the European Economic Area (EEA). Among different reasons for this were institutional and sovereignty questions, such as the dynamic adoption of new EU legislation, and the Swiss Government announcement of the EEA being a training camp for a future EU membership. Instead of the multilateral EEA approach, Switzerland chose a bilateral approach with Bilateral Agreements I and II, which were signed in 1999 and 2004, respectively. The two packages regulate aspects of the economic, political, and cultural landscapes and benefit both parties with legal certainty and market access in selected policy sectors. About ten years ago, the EU expressed its desire for an Institutional Framework Agreement (IFA) with Switzerland to protect the homogeneity of the internal market, to remove legal barriers, and to introduce a more efficient dispute settlement procedure. The draft of the negotiation result (not initialed) presented in 2018 raised three concerns about which the Swiss Government sought clarification from the EU: wage protection, state aid, and the Citizens Rights Directive. These three issues continue to be central concerns for many Swiss voters because these rules could potentially create social or economic problems. Without acceptable clarification on these points from the EU, there is a considerable risk that the Swiss people could reject the IFA in a future referendum, which would put Switzerland and (to a lesser extent, of course) the EU in a difficult situation. To avoid such a consequence, Switzerland must exercise caution. If a satisfactory solution cannot be reached, Switzerland must consider alternatives to a premature submission of the IFA to avoid legal uncertainty during an interim period. Regardless of the upcoming bilateral developments, Switzerland, at the heart of Europe, traditionally has a positive relationship with the EU. These friendly relations are all the more important when considering today’s challenges, in which Switzerland can show solidarity with Brussels and support the larger-scale European goals of promoting peace, democracy, and human rights in the world.
Governance, Social Policy, and Political Economy: Trends in Norway’s Partner Countries
In 2017–2018, NUPI (the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs) headed a project where political economy analyses were undertaken in eleven of Norway’s partner countries. These analyses were published as eleven separate reports. The reports focused on power relations and political developments in the partner countries, but they also analyzed the nature of governance. After the publication of the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators for 2019, the MFA approached NUPI and requested that we summarize the findings of this report for Norway’s eleven partner countries and assess these findings in light of the political economy analyses. We were also asked to investigate whether there were any connections between the nature and quality of governance on the one hand, and the nature of social policies and the human rights situation on the other. This report presents the findings of this assessment of the governance scores in the light of the above-mentioned political economy analyses. The report is structured as follows: Firstly, after briefly describing the governance indictors used by the World Bank, we summarize the eleven countries’ scores on the various governance indicators. Secondly, we assess the evolution of governance in the eleven countries, by comparing the scores in the 2019 report with those from 2011. Thirdly, we summarize the findings of the political economy analyses of the eleven countries and discuss how they fit with the governance scores. Finally, we present the eleven countries’ expenditure on social policies, as reported in the ILOs World Social Protection Report, and the human rights situation for the partner countries, and then describe how these findings relate to the governance scores.