Net-zero or phase out? Stakeholder views on just transitions pathways for oil and gas in Norway

In this policy brief, authors David Jordhus-Lier, Camilla Houeland, Heikki Eidsvoll Holmås, Kacper Szulecki, Peder Ressem Østring and Kendra Dupuy document how policy makers and representatives of businesses and civil society organisations (including trade unions and environmental groups) have outlined pathway scenarios towards net-zero carbon emissions and a phase-out vision for the Norwegian oil and gas industry. The authors have developed these two scenarios participating in a focus group based on a so-called ‘backcasting’ exercise. There is perceived acceptance for the notion of net-zero emissions by 2050 from social actors involved in the Norwegian oil and gas industry. If this goal is to be reached with a science-based approach, however, deep-seated transformations in the global energy system will be needed, as well as concerted efforts by the Norwegian government and from other social actors. Specific targets for the electrification of offshore installations, the roll-out of large-scale offshore wind power and technologies for capturing, using and storing carbon on the Norwegian Continental Shelf are key milestones in this scenario. The main actors required to take responsibility for this pathway are the Norwegian state, in close tripartite dialogue with labour and capital, but also with institutional mechanisms that ensure the participation of local communities and civil society organisations. The net-zero pathway faces a series of obstacles. Among them are popular resistance to new renewable energy projects, increasing electricity prices and the risk this poses to plans for the electrification of offshore installations.

Populism, historical discourse and foreign policy: the case of Poland’s Law and Justice government

This article analyses how, in Poland, the populist political orientation of the ruling party (Law and Justice—PiS) has coloured the historical discourse of the government and has affected, in turn, its foreign policy and diplomatic relations. We argue that the historical discourse of the PiS government is a reflection of the party’s reliance on populism as a political mode of articulation in that it seeks to promote a Manichean, dichotomic and totalizing re-definition of the categories of victim, hero and perpetrator—and of Poland’s roles in this trinity. The article details the direct and indirect repercussions of PiS populist-inspired historical posture on Poland’s foreign policy by analysing its policies towards—and relations with—Ukraine and Germany. As such, the article sheds light on the under-explored links between populism and historical memory and makes a contribution to the nascent scholarship on the foreign policy of populist governments.

Poland's belated energy transition: now or never

The Polish authorities were for years playing down the need for decarbonization, seeing it as a threat to domestic energy security. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, suddenly it is not climate but precisely security that may accelerate the phase out of fossil fuels.

The War in Ukraine is All About Democracy vs Dictatorship

A dictatorship has just brutally attacked its democratic neighbor. It’s not the first time in history that happens, but there are good reasons to see the war in Ukraine as the first one defining the conflict lines of this century.

Does security push democracy out of energy governance?

The Chernobyl Effect: Antinuclear Protests and the Molding of Polish Democracy, 1986–1990

The 1986 Chernobyl catastrophe was not only a human and ecological disaster, but also a political-ideological one, severely discrediting Soviet governance and galvanizing dissidents in the Eastern Bloc. In the case of Poland, what began as isolated protests against the Soviet nuclear site grew to encompass domestic nuclear projects in general, and in the process spread across the country and attracted new segments of society. This innovative study, combining scholarly analysis with oral histories and other accounts from participants, traces the growth and development of the Polish anti-nuclear movement, showing how it exemplified the broader generational and cultural changes in the nation’s opposition movements during the waning days of the state socialist era.

The Amazon rainforest and the global–regional politics of ecosystem governance

This article examines the global–regional politics of ecosystem governance through the case of the Amazon rainforest. Despite the bourgeoning literature on global and regional environmental politics, the interplay of these dynamics in ecosystem governance has still received limited attention. I here propose that the politics of ecosystem governance are rooted in a dispute over the realization of alternative ecosystem services. When global actors become invested in promoting ecosystem preservation to secure the realization services with diffuse benefits, it can affect cooperation at the regional level. Ecosystem-adjacent states can perceive external interest as a threat, building regional cooperation as a tool to defend sovereignty, but also as an opportunity, using it to bargain the terms of their stewardship. I use this framework to trace the evolution of regional cooperation in the Amazon, demonstrating how it was developed in response to this ecosystem's growing global salience. Through defensive sovereignty and bargained stewardship, regional cooperation helped Amazon states to cap international commitment and limit external influence in the region but also allowed for building some form of coordinated ecosystem protection. The research sheds new light on both the potential and the limitations of global–regional engagements for the preservation of the Amazon and other analogous cross-border ecosystems.

Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Central African Republic

In this new Fact Sheet from the joint NUPI and SIPRI Climate-related Peace and Security Risks Project (CPSR). The research team explore the nexus between climate change, peace and security.