Net-zero or phase out? Stakeholder views on just transitions pathways for oil and gas in Norway

In this policy brief, authors David Jordhus-Lier, Camilla Houeland, Heikki Eidsvoll Holmås, Kacper Szulecki, Peder Ressem Østring and Kendra Dupuy document how policy makers and representatives of businesses and civil society organisations (including trade unions and environmental groups) have outlined pathway scenarios towards net-zero carbon emissions and a phase-out vision for the Norwegian oil and gas industry. The authors have developed these two scenarios participating in a focus group based on a so-called ‘backcasting’ exercise.

There is perceived acceptance for the notion of net-zero emissions by 2050 from social actors involved in the Norwegian oil and gas industry. If this goal is to be reached with a science-based approach, however, deep-seated transformations in the global energy system will be needed, as well as concerted efforts by the Norwegian government and from other social actors. Specific targets for the electrification of offshore installations, the roll-out of large-scale offshore wind power and technologies for capturing, using and storing carbon on the Norwegian Continental Shelf are key milestones in this scenario. The main actors required to take responsibility for this pathway are the Norwegian state, in close tripartite dialogue with labour and capital, but also with institutional mechanisms that ensure the participation of local communities and civil society organisations. The net-zero pathway faces a series of obstacles. Among them are popular resistance to new renewable energy projects, increasing electricity prices and the risk this poses to plans for the electrification of offshore installations.