GSP in the "spaghetti bowl" of trade preferences
The paper examines the relative position of GSP (tariff preferences for developing countries) compared to ordinary tariffs and free trade agreements in Norway, the EU and the USA. On average, ordinary GSP gives a tariff rebate of less than 50% in all countries. “Extended” GSP, given to the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and others, implies zero tariffs in Norway and the EU, but only partial liberalisation in the USA. EU provides extended GSP for 119 countries, while the USA does so for 76 and Norway for 52. Considering the shares of trade rather than the number of countries, extended GSP covers 5% or less of total trade in all cases, and ordinary GSP is much more important. Compared to tariffs in free trade agreements, ordinary GSP is inferior in the USA and the EU, but not too far behind in Norway. This is due to recent cuts in MFN tariffs as well as improvements in the GSP system of Norway. For manufacturing, Norway has low tariffs and a generous GSP system. This is however not the case for agriculture.
Norway's trade with developing countries
This paper presents some characteristics of Norway’s trade with developing countries. Norwegian trade with low and low middle-income countries has increased in recent years. Imports have increased more than exports. This is partly because a large part of Norwegian exports is petroleum sold to other OECD countries. Norwegian trade with the least developed countries, on the other hand, is stagnant and constitutes only a minor share of Norwegian foreign trade. This pattern is similar to other OECD countries: Developing countries increase their share in world trade while least developed countries are marginalized. By adjusting for size and geographical position of Norwegian trade partners it is found that Norwegian trade with developing countries is as expected as compared to other OECD countries.
Trade and development - a selective review
This paper reviews parts of the recent literature on trade and growth. The relationships between trade and growth have been extensively studied in recent research. Many studies indicate that trade stimulates income and growth. The literature is controversial and many studies are criticised for weaknesses in methodology. Despite the methodological controversies, most evidence gives support for the view that trade stimulates growth. It is argued that major deficiency in the literature is that it does not discriminate between the impact of market access in other countries and the impact of liberal domestic trade policies.
Corruption in China and Russia compared : Different legacies of central planning
During the first decade after markets became the major mechanisms of economic coordination in China and the area of the former Soviet Union (FSUA), corruption was perceived to increase in both. At the same time China experienced rapid growth while most countries in FSUA experienced steep declines. In the paper I argue that this difference is difficult to explain within an n-country, cross-section econometric framework. Instead a case-oriented approach with more institutional specification is chosen. In particular, the role of the former normative and institutional framework of central planning is explored. The paper describes some of the explanations of corruption as it occurred under central planning, including its limitations and how they may be linked to (negative or positive) growth mechanisms. In addition the posttransition data on corruption and growth are linked to major political characteristics at the point of transition.
The Congo war and the prospects of state formation : Rwanda and Uganda compared
This paper analyses the effect of the Congo war on state power in Rwanda and Uganda. Drawing on theories of European state formation, it asks whether the Congo war has led to a strengthening of the state in the two countries. It is argued that this has not been the case. Neither the Rwandan nor the Ugandan state has been strengthened as a result of the war. I argue that this must be explained by changes in the state system, which have altered the links between war and state formation. The «war makes states» connection presupposes a positive relationship between regime maintenance and state formation. In contemporary Africa, there is no link. On the one hand, state survival is guaranteed anyway, no matter how weak the state is. On the other hand, regime survival does not depend on mobilisation of resources through taxation, since resources are available from elsewhere (aid, crime, plunder, globalisation, warlord politics).
The German ICT industry : Spatial employment and innovation patterns
This paper documents recent developments in German ICT industries. In particular we report results on spatial patterns in innovation and employment in these industries. The paper is motivated by previous studies that have found that ICT industries seem to cluster geographically and having spatially clustered growth rates. In this study, we discriminate between production of ICT devices and production of ICT services. In Germany, production of ICT devices is concentrated in clusters of innovating regions (in terms of patents). ICT service production, on the other hand, is concentrated in larger urban areas. Growth rates in ICT-related employment show different spatial patterns. The data show that negative spatial effects are present for several sectors, which might give support for the so-called backwash effect described by Gunnar Myrdal (1957). For other sectors, positive spatial spillover effects may be present. For overall economic development (in terms of gross regional product per habitant) we find weak positive growth effects ICT, but these growth effects stem more from innovation than from production or use of ICT.
Hva gjør Norge utsatt for terrorisme? : Trusselscenarier og norsk sårbarhetsforvaltning
Til tross for en begrenset internasjonal terrortrussel mot Norge, kan noen utviklingstrekk, forhold og situasjoner bidra til at trusselbildet blir mer alvorlig, og aktualisere sårbarheter i det norske samfunnet. Noen av faktorene er knyttet til langsiktige og vedvarende endringer, mens andre er mer situasjonelle og kan føre til en akutt, men kortsiktig økning av trusselen. De viktigste sårbarheter og potensielle nasjonale mål kan deles inn i henholdsvis: energiproduksjon, transportmidler, informasjons- og kommunikasjonsteknologi, kontroversielle næringer og aktiviteter, symbolobjekter og - personer, samt ulike utenlandske mål i Norge. Spørsmålet er i hvilken grad og i hvilke sammenhenger det finnes grupper som ønsker å utnytte disse sårbarhetene, og å utføre aksjoner. Rapporten presenterer situasjoner og hendelser hvor disse sårbarhetene har blitt aktualisert, eller kan bli det i fremtiden. Avslutningsvis gis det noen generelle vurderinger av utfordringer for norsk «sårbarhetsforvaltning», samt forslag til nasjonale forskningsfokus for terrorisme. Dette for å underbygge sunn prioriteringspraksis i beslutningskretser, generere et grunnlag for videre sårbarhetsforskning og sårbarhetsforståelse, samt å identifisere kunnskapshull.
Tackling Welfare Gaps: The East European Transition and New Patterns of Migration to Norway
The main purpose of the study is to analyse how the growing welfare gaps between Eastern and Western Europe have become a securitised issue that needs to be addressed by national, international and supranational bodies. The very existence of welfare gaps is an important migratory push-factor. This study will examine how the economic and social transition in Eastern Europe – first of all in Russia and Poland, but also in the rest of what used to be defined as Eastern Bloc1 – has contributed to the emergence of a new set of push and pull factors in the region, and as a direct result, to new patterns of emigration. The next step will be to see how these emerging migratory patterns have influenced migration trends in Norway. As Norway is often represented as the wealthiest country in Europe and a country that has successfully pursued what is often in the Central and Eastern European discourse described as ‘the third way’ of development: a country that, thanks to its revenues from oil, has managed to build a capitalism with a human face, Norway has become both a potential and actual country of migration to many of the citizens from the former Communist Bloc. Thus, this study maps both the ‘push factors’ in the area of actual and potential emigration in Eastern and Central Europe, as well as the most important ‘pull factors’ in the areas of actual and potential migration, with a focus on Central/Eastern Europe on the one hand, and Norway on the other. In this context we will look at various institutional and non-institutional strategies of eliminating the welfare gaps perceived as a major cause of migration. As migration is increasingly becoming a securitised issue, I will treat the ‘welfare gap/migration issue’ as a part of a new post-Cold War European security equation.