NATO facing challenges from the Arctic to the Black Sea Region
Which challenges do NATO face on its Eastern flanks in the years to come? LSE IDEAS, the New Strategy Center Bucharest, and NUPI invite you to a one day conference.
Doubling Down on Arctic Diplomacy
The Arctic looms large in the popular consciousness as a potential new theatre of conflict. But the real risk is that the consuming politics of great power rivalry will deflect attention from the real progress of diplomacy and the everyday work of Arctic governance. This op-ed outlines three key areas that merit greater diplomatic attention and could pay dividends in reducing the impact of great power competition on the rapidly changing Arctic.
Sjømatnæringen og Europa: EU-medlemskap, EØS eller NOREXIT?
EEA is a comprehensive agreement with thousands of legal acts incorporated into Norwegian law and practice. The number of legal acts varies strongly across areas and in some fields, implementation is more important than new legislation. In 2020, Norway had 96 agreements with the EU, og which 46 can be called trade agreements. Switzerland has comprehensive cooperation with the EU and without the EEA, but the relationship is under pressure. A summary of the book chapters indicates that, in economic terms, there is potentially more to lose from abolition of the EEA than there is to gain from membership.
Norges handelsforhandlinger med EU gjennom 50 år: Sakskoblinger og forhandlingsmakt
The chapter provides an historical review of Norway’s trade negotiations with the EU from 1973 until today, with particular focus on results for the seafood sector. Around 1990, EFTA provided bargaining power in spite of industrial differences. The 1991 EEA negotiations had issue linkages across several areas, and substantial tariff cuts were obtained for seafood. Later negotiations have been conducted along parallel tracks with weak issue linkages. With reduced bargaining power, Norway has been forced to accept ever increasing EEA grants, but free trade for seafood has never been achieved even if sizeable tariff rate quotas have been granted as a compensation for earlier free trade agreements with new EU members.
Sjømatnæringen og Europa. EØS og alternativene
The book examines the importance of the EEA for the seafood sector and the consequences if the EEA is replaced by EU membership or another type of trade agreement: NOREXIT. This is analysed in areas of particular importance for the seafood industry, such as tariffs, veterinary and border control; migrant workers in the fish processing industry; catch quotas after Brexit; and cross-border investment. In addition, the book includes background chapters on the EEA agreement, the Norway-EU negotiation history and the legal aspect of the EEA. The book is the result of an inter-disciplinary project with emphasis on economics and political science. The contributions are written by key experts from Norwegian universities and research institutions. The book has no political agenda of replacing the EEA with one alternative or another; it is a peer-reviewed academic contribution to greater knowledge about the EEA and the alternatives.
Fra «fiskebrevet» til EØS: Betydningen av toll for norsk sjømateksport til EU
An “archeology of tariffs” reveals how current tariffs for Norwegian seafood are based on trade agreements negotiated with the EU over 50 years. Furthermore, the economic impact of tariffs and tariff rate quotas under the EEA, EU membership and abolition of the EEA is quantified. The trade agreements reduced tariffs from 2.3 to one billion NOK in 2018. 2/3 of the tariff savings were due to the EEA, and less than 1/10 due to the “fisheries letter” of 1973. Abolition of the EEA may lead to an export loss of up to more than three billion NOK for harvest-based fisheries, whereas EU membership will lead to increased exports, particularly for aquaculture.
The Dangers of Disconnection: Oscillations in Political Violence on Lake Chad
Narrations on fragility and resilience in the Sahel paint a picture about the region’s inherent ungovernability that lead to consider an endless state- and peace-building process as the most feasible governance solution. Everyday practices of violent entrepreneurship, coalescing with inter-community and land-tenure conflicts, now inform social relations and are transforming moral economies around Lake Chad. While competition over territory suitable for farming, grazing and fishing has intensified, dispute-settlement practices organised by community-level authorities have proven ineffective and lacking the necessary means to respond to the encroachment of a wide range of interests claimed by increasingly powerful actors. Meanwhile, communities organised in self-defence militias are undergoing a process of progressive militarisation that tends to normalise violence and legitimise extra-judicial vigilante justice, further empowering capital-endowed arms suppliers gravitating in the jihadi galaxy, such as the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).
Book launch: EEA and the alternatives – what about NOREXIT?
What are the alternatives to the EEA Agreement? What happens if Norway joins the EU, or if the EEA is terminated? A new book edited by Arne Melchior and Frode Nilssen looks into this.
The Nuclear Umbrella Revisited
The NPT is in miserable shape, betrayed on the disarmament dimension, stuck in the Middle East and mostly irrelevant to the Asian nuclear armed states, but it has proven resilient and lingers on. It will soon be accompanied by the TPNW, which is about to enter into force. Hopefully, the wrangling between the respective treaty supporters will calm down and enable a new consensus on the normative basis for non-proliferation and disarmament consisting of a combination of both treaties. That will not happen overnight, however. There is a long way from mutual recriminations to passive co-existence to bridge-building to exploitation of synergies – if it ever happens. The dilemma facing the umbrella states is a hard one. On the one hand, it is in their interest not to be defended with nuclear weapons. On the other hand, they deem it important to remain members of NATO. These propositions may or may not be compatible. Some believe they are, emphasising that the Alliance is a conglomerate of nuclear and non-nuclear states; of states that are hosting nuclear weapons and others which do not; and that France left the military part of NATO but remained part of the political cooperation without rocking the rest. Others claim they are not and note that in the face of big power pressure, small states tend to balk at running the risks involved – especially if they cannot agree to act together. Business as usual is the problem, not the solution. In view of current trends in international security affairs there can be little disagreement about that. If so, much is achieved, because it encourages reflection and re-examination of established positions. If not, the strength of argument will remain posited against the power of inertia.
Naming and shaming of cyber intruders – does it work?
Last month Norwegian authorities made the rather unusual decision to call out - to attribute - Russia for being behind a cyber operation towards the Norwegian parliament. NUPI’s Cybersecurity Centre has the pleasure to invite to a webinar with Professor Madeline Carr. She will provide an overview of why attribution in cyberspace is difficult, the challenges of not being able to attribute - and different options on how to deal with this issue.