Attentatet i Bagdad: Farlig og feilkalkulert
Den 3. januar kom nyheten om at generalmajor Qasem Soleimani ble drept i et amerikansk droneangrep i Bagdad. Ifølge president Trump handlet USA «for å stoppe en krig, ikke for å starte en krig», men angrepet bør heller ses i forlengelse av Trump-administrasjonens maximum pressure-strategi, som har økt konflikten mellom Iran og USA.
Neo-Orientalist Framing of the 2011 and 2013 Egyptian Uprisings: A Case Study of The New York Times and The Washington Post
This thesis critically examines the US media framing of the Egyptian Uprisings in 2011 and 2013 to examine whether the coverage was relatively value-neutral or had a value-laden (Neo-Orientalist) perspective. The thesis aims to examine whether the Neo-Orientalist tendency among the Western societies to view religion as the key driving force behind political processesis manifest in the US media as well, or whether the two newspapers try to represent the abovementioned political and economic processes and grievances. To this end, the thesis looks at the articles published in The New York Times and The Washington Post during and after two major events: Mubarak‟s resignation in 2011 and Morsi‟s removal in 2013. A combination of quantitative (content analysis) and qualitative (critical discourse analysis) research demonstrates that news articles and editorials about the 2011 and 2013 uprisings include Neo-Orientalist frames. These articles consider liberal democracy as a universal normative model and contrast it with Islam, portrayed as a fundamentally different, homogeneous and antidemocratic phenomenon linked with instability and violence and singlehandedly influencing democratization process. Compared to 2011, Neo-Orientalist frames become more frequent in 2013; if in 2011, most units adhere to Fukuyama‟s view that Egypt would join the teleological march to liberal democracy, in 2013, the trend reverses and most units, like Huntington, exclude any possibility of democratization. The textual practices of naming, sourcing, presupposition, fore- and backgrounding, used to construct Neo-Orientalist frames, can be related to discursive practices, or the production of text, and larger social practices. As critical discourse analysis shows, the units show pro-Israeli bias and align with the US foreign policy priorities: both the general policy of liberal democracy promotion and the specific strategic interests in Egypt.
Drivers of violent extremism: NUPI to coordinate EU-funded project
PREVEX will shed light on how the various drivers of violent extremism operate.
Religious authority and the 2018 parliamentary elections in Iraq
This research brief analyzes the discursive production of, and political struggle over, religious authority in Shia Iraq. It examines Friday sermons held in the run-up to the May 2018 parliamentary elections.
What does China really want in the Middle East?
In a recent article, NUPI research fellow Henrik S. Hiim and Stig Stenslie aim to find an answer.
Preventing Violent Extremism in the Balkans and the MENA: Strengthening Resilience in Enabling Environments (PREVEX)
The overarching objective of PREVEX is to put forward more fine-tuned and effective approaches to preventing violent extremism....
På tide å tenke nytt om Iran
(Available in Norwegian only): Det overordnede målet for USAs såkalte "maximum pressure"-strategi har vært å fremforhandle en bedre atomavtale med Iran, samt å svekke både Teherans innflytelse i Midtøsten og ayatollah Khameneis grep om makten. Men har strategien vært vellykket i å oppnå dette?
The GeGaLo index: Geopolitical gains and losses after energy transition
This article presents the GeGaLo index of geopolitical gains and losses that 156 countries may experience after a full-scale transition to renewable energy. The following indicators are considered for inclusion in the index: fossil fuel production, fossil fuel reserves, renewable energy resources, governance, and conflict. Some of these represent potential gains; some represent losses; and some the capacity of countries to handle changes in geopolitical strength. Five alternative versions of the index are developed to work out the optimal design. First, the energy resource indicators are combined with equal weights to create two simple versions of the index. Next, governance and conflict indicators are included to create three more complex versions of the index. The index provides useful pointers for strategic energy and foreign policy choices: geopolitical power will be more evenly distributed after an energy transition; Iceland will gain most; Russia may be one of the main holders of stranded geopolitical assets; China and the USA will lose more geopolitically than foreseen by other analyses. The index also indicates a lack of emphasis in parts of the literature on space for renewable energy infrastructure and on domestically sourced coal for the current strength of countries such as China and the United States.
Stater og transnasjonale motstandsnettverk: Irans mobilisering av irakiske sjiamilitser etter 1979
The Islamic Republic of Iran has been building a transnational network of Shi’a militias since 1979, commonly referred to as its asymmetric warfare capability and ‘strategic depth’. While it is a known fact that Iran has mobilised Shi’a militias in other countries to strengthen its regional position, how they have done it has not received much scholarly attention. The objective of this paper is to explain this phenomenon by examining how Iran has mobilised Iraqi Shi’a militias since 1979. The selected cases are the mobilisation processes of three most prominent Shi’a militias in Iraq today: Badr Organisation, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, and Kata’ib Hizbullah. Although variation exists between them, they are all cases of Iran’s network of armed resistance groups, which have allowed it to engage in covert or indirect conflict intervention in the Middle East. To logically connect the empirical data with the study’s research question, I have used a case study research design, with process tracing and the semi-structured interview as methods for data collection. Furthermore, the empirical analysis has been guided by a theoretical framework that has attempted to build a bridge between the existing literatures on state-militia dynamics and contentious politics.
David Petraeus visits NUPI
NUPI had the pleasure of hosting David H. Petraeus on 30. September. The four-star General (Ret) and former director of CIA shared his insights and prognosis for the geopolitical landscape ahead at the event entitled “Global Security Threats and Western Responses”.