Research project
Norway as an in-between for Russia: Ambivalent space, hybrid measures
It will investigate in depth Russia’s changing official view of recent NATO engagement in the High North and of Norway’s status within this endeavor and ascertain what means of force Russia sees fit in its approach to NATO. By coupling the study of Russia’s approach with a study of NATO's changing approach to Russia in the same period, we will uncover the interactive game that shapes the challenges for Norway as a small state ‘in-between’ a resurgent Russia and inside a reinvigorated NATO, paying particular attention to how notions of hybrid warfare play out in this game. Methodologically, the study scrutinizes official statements by combining quantitative textual tools with (qualitative) discourse analysis, maximizing efficacy and rigor.
The project will produce three policy briefs with complimentary ‘brownbag’ seminars, two co-financed academic peer-reviewed articles, as well as conference participation and communication to the general public. It is co-financed with the NFR sponsored WARU project (300923).
Project Manager
Participants
New publications
Differentiating Hybrid Threats against the High North and Baltic Sea regions
Russia’s grey-zone threats and actions are a major concern for bordering countries who are on the receiving end of such actions, both physical and cyber. This policy brief examines how such hybrid threats affect countries in the High North and Baltic Sea regions and evaluates the challenges related to response and countermeasures. NATO's policy is that the member nations are responsible for building resilience and responding to hybrid threats or attacks. To avoid invalid interpretations or paralysis in assessment and response to such complex and diverse threats, they should be differentiated and dealt with separately rather than boxed into a wide cognitive basket. This Policy Brief is part of the project ‘Norway as an in-between for Russia: Ambivalent space, hybrid measures’ financed by the Norwegian MoD.
Russian reframing: Norway as an outpost for NATO offensives
Moscow increasingly views the ‘Collective West’ as an offensive actor and the High North as terrain for NATO ‘expansion’. Norway figures as an active partner in this endeavour. For Norway, this situation is precarious: to the degree that Norway is seen as an inimical ‘NATO in the North’, Norwegian policies across a range of issue-areas increasingly risk being perceived as actions in an existential Russia–West struggle. This is worrisome because a key pillar of official Norwegian policy towards Russia involves balancing NATO deterrence with reassurance. As the military/non-military distinction becomes blurred in the eyes of Russia this crucial balancing becomes very difficult – the intended ‘reassuring’ signal might not come across.